Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, China Trade Deal Hopes, Technical Buying, Utility/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.06 -.38%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.78 +.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.08 -.62%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.68 +1.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -29.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +18.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.12 -14.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.68 +.06%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 453.0 +.42%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.53 -.74%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 254.0 -4.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.30 +.20%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.56 +.03%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.04 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.62 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% unch.
  • Yield Curve 23.75 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.50 USD/Metric Tonne +.49%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -58.70 -1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.10 +13.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.2 -6.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 -2.0 basis points
  • 23.3% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 31.6% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +132 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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