Thursday, April 04, 2019

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.5 -1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.09 -.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.45 -1.86%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.43 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +38.5%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -4.71%
  • NYSE Arms .63 -55.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.25 -1.27%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 513.0 +.16%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.44 +1.49%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 252.5 -.75 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.53 -.49%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 172.54 +.30%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 160.98 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.75 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.48 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% unch.
  • Yield Curve 17.5 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.56 USD/Metric Tonne +1.57%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -55.10 +2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.0 -8.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.60 -2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91 unch.
  • 15.3% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 21.0% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +76 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +112 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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