Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Stocks Close Modestly Lower on Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.7 +3.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.09 -.31%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.24 +.61%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.78 -.71%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 63.0 -42.7%
  • Total Put/Call .86 +8.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.49 +43.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.71 +1.06%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 443.0 -.76%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.0 +2.24%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 264.75 +1.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.74 -.01%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 196.92 +9.48%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 161.69 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.0 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 +2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.58 -.72%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 20.25 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 88.02 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -65.80 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -38.80 -2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .9 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96 unch.
  • 26.7% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 31.4% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +30 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -123 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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