Monday, April 15, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Financial/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.34 +2.75%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.49 +.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.14 -1.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.91 +.87%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +4.81%
  • Total Put/Call .90 +23.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 +6.54%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.60 -.79%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 504.0 -1.52%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.99 +3.60%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 252.25 +3.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.96 -2.11%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 177.48 -.09%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 161.39 +.42%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.75 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.25 -2.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.50 -.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.40% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 16.0 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.04 USD/Metric Tonne +.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -57.40 +1.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -44.0 +1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.10 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 -1.0 basis point
  • 6.2% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 10.2% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +11 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -70 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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