Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Dovish ECB Commentary, Less Eurozone/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.79 -3.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.92 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.07 -.86%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.14 -1.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -42.3%
  • Total Put/Call .87 +1.16%
  • NYSE Arms 1.64 +18.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.09 -.96%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 515.0 +1.28%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.68 -2.06%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.75 +.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.31 +.07%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 175.76 -.16%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 161.21 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.5 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 +4.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.75 +.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 15.0 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 90.88 USD/Metric Tonne -.65%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.30 -6.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.90 +3.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.60 +1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 +3.0 basis points
  • 13.6% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 19.3% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -12 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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