Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, China Trade Deal Hopes, Oil Gain, Biotech/Defense Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.15 -2.17%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.36 -.44%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.19 -1.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.51 -3.06%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +12.0%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -11.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 +18.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.12 -1.54%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 448.0 -1.24%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.45 +1.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 263.5 +5.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 -.02%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 179.66 +.47%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 161.74 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 17.50 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.07 -.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.43% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 20.75 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 89.95 USD/Metric Tonne +.35%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -65.80 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.60 +2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.60 -3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96 unch.
  • 20.8% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 23.3% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +96 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +28 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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