Tuesday, April 09, 2019

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:   
  • Stocks Drop as Growth Woes Resurface; Dollar Flat. Asian stocks declined Wednesday after renewed concern about a global economic slowdown and an escalation in trade tensions. Treasury yields steadied alongside the dollar. Shares in Japan bore the brunt of losses, with equities seeing modest declines in Seoul and Sydney. The S&P 500 Index fell for the first time in nine sessions as the Trump administration threatened tariffs on the European Union and the International Monetary. Fund cut its global growth outlook to the lowest since the financial crisis. Australian bonds climbed, tracking overnight moves that saw the 10-year Treasury yield fall to 2.50 percent. The pound fluctuated as the European Union looked set to force the U.K to delay Brexit for as long as a year. Japan’s Topix index lost 0.9 percent as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Hang Seng Index futures earlier declined 0.4 percent. South Korea’s Kospi slid 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.6 percent. Futures were little changed.  
Wall St. Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.75 +.75 basis point
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.25 -.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.52 unch.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.05%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (DAL)/.91
After the Close:
  • (BBBY)/1.10
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Feb.
  • Real Avg. Hourly Earnings YoY for March.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,386,640 barrels versus a +7,238,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,188,090 barrels versus a -1,781,00 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,295,820 barrels versus a -1,998,ooo barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.93% versus a -.2% decline prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for March is estimated at -$181.0B versus -$234.0B in Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Quarles speaking, ECB rate decision/press conference, UK Manufacturing/Trade Data reports, China Money Supply report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, $24B 10Y T-Note auction, (FB)/(GOOGL)/(TWTR) testifying to Senate on censorship, (COST)/(ZUMZ) monthly sales reports and the (CRM) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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