Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @RenzTom
  • @glennbeck
  • @TheSCIF
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @WellsJorda89710
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • President Donald J. Trump just posted this video explaining how YOUR Country is being destroyed right now to ensure a Future Dictatorship. It’s all by design!!
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @bennyjohnson
  • China Is Launching An All Out ATTACK On Our Election Systems Through Birthright Citizenship, Over 1 MILLION Communists Will Vote In 2030. Peter Schwiezer breaks down EXACTLY how it operates: "They've created an industrial scale model to exploit birthright citizenship in this country. Somebody is in the US at the time. They give birth. That child is automatically given U.S. citizenship." "Roughly 100,000 Chinese nationals a year have been born in the US. They are then taken back to China, raised in China, going to CCP schools. When they turn 18, they're able to vote, donate to political campaigns, get government jobs in the US." "The first wave of this will start cresting in 2030. When people say they wanna be part of the American dream, immigrate, assimilate. No, it's been weaponized by these foreign actors, and China is particularly effective at doing so." (video)
  • @CynicalPublius
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @AndrewCFollett  
  • @TonySeruga
  • @XFreeze
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.0 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.01%. 
  • Gold 4,787.9 USD/t oz. -1.0%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.16 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 102.3 +.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.25% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.70% -4.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.9%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.22%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.31%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.42%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US/Greenland Deal Optimism, Falling Long-Term Rates, Less Global Tariff Uncertainty, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.9 -2.6%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 +6.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.7 -1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 125.8 -3.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 +.8
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.6 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.9 -2.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.9 -.6 point 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(49 of 500 reporting) +18.1% +1.4 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.17 -.21:  Growth Rate +16.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.30% +9.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 491.70 +.14: Growth Rate +19.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.4 -.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 66.25 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.1 +.04% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.3% +1.2 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.4% +10.0 basis points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% -4.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.87 +6.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 82.2% (+3.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 68.6%(+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +616 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +400 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABT)/1.50
  • (FCX)/.29
  • (GE)/1.43
  • (MKC)/.88
  • (MBLY)/.06
  • (NTRS)/2.37
  • (PG)/1.86 
  • (ROK)/2.46
  • (LUV)/.57 
After the Close: 
  • (ALK)/.11
  • (AA)/.93
  • (COF)/4.14
  • (CSX)/.41
  • (INTC)/.08
  • (ISRG)/2.27 
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • 3Q GDP revisions. 
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 209K versus 198K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1892K versus 1884K prior.
  • BEA to release Oct.-Nov. Personal Income data. 

11:00 am EST

  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan. is estimated rise to 5.0 versus 1.0 in Dec. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, Dallas Fed PCE for Nov., weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, SPIE Photonics West Expo, CIBC Western Institutional Investor Conference, (JBL) annual meeting and the (INTU) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +6.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.5 -.8
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 64.5% of Issues Advancing, 32.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.34 +86.1%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$268.0M
  • 194 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
  • 68.7% (+1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.9 -1.0
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 31.0% unch.
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 12.0% unch.
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 12.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US strikes Iran by June 30th 60.0% +6.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 99.8 -.02%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 416.75 +.5 basis point
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 263.6 +.9%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 153.9 -2.0%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 48.0 (NEUTRAL) -5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.6 -19.1%
  • Vix 19.3 -3.8%
  • Total Put/Call .72 -16.3%

Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful 
  • @LaraLogan
  • @GenFlynn
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @greg_price11
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @RepLuna
  • @Liz_churchill10
  • @Breaking911
  • @ArthurMacwaters
  • @MaryBowdenMD
  • DOJ has canceled 3 enforcement actions against Pfizer, and @AGPamBondi is trying to have @IamBrookJackson’s case against Pfizer dismissed. Bondi previously worked for Pfizer.
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @discloseTV
  • @Shilohmarx
  • @Cernovich
  • Democrats won Virginia and are going full Marxist. Taxes at California levels. Banning white men from government contracts. Surveillance tech cameras to issue tickets. Internet voting. Gun bans. There is no such thing as a moderate Democrat.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%. 
  • Gold 4,833.1 USD/t oz. +1.4%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 +.09%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.4 -.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.83% -5.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 -2.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.30%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.25%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.