BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Biotech longs and Financial longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is very bullish. The VIX is falling 4.96% and is very high at 25.51. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 121.0 and the total put/call is around average at .77. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 1.51 at its intraday peak, and is currently .76. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -3.84% today to 70.33 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is declining -1.95% to 100.53 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is up 2 basis points to 22 basis points. The TED spread is now down 443 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is -.18% to 34.50 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +3 basis points to 1.76%, which is down 91 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .07%, which is down 2 basis points today.Today’s gains are broad-based, with market leaders outperforming.I-Banking, Coal, Alt Energy, Oil Tanker, Energy, Oil Service, Semi, Internet and Gold shares are especially strong, rising 2%+.The US Sovereign Debt CDS is falling back to its low at 20.0 basis points, which is also a positive.On of my longs, market leader (AAPL), is breaking out to a new 52-week high today on above-average volume.I still don’t think it is too late to purchase these shares around current levels and see substantial upside in the stock over the long-term.The broad market took a dip around mid-day on negative (GS) rumors. I doubt the validity of these concerns.Recent market action must be extremely frustrating for the many bears.After a brief pause, I suspect another broad market surge higher before week’s end on short-covering.Nikkei futures indicate an +100 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -9 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less financial sector pessimism, diminishing economic fear, technical buying and bargain-hunting.
- Sustainable economic growth and low interest rates worldwide will spur a “multi-year” bull market in equities, led by developing nations, said Fidelity International’s Anthony Bolton. “Low growth means low interest rates, and actually that’s one of the best environments for stock-market investing,” Bolton, president of investments at Fidelity International, which oversees about $141 billion, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. “Anything that can show growth in this low-growth environment is going to be bid up by investors.
- The U.S. economy is on the mend and housing is poised for a rebound, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “The momentum in the economy is moving forward,” LaVorgna said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. Housing is close to a turnaround because “we have had a tremendous improvement on inventories,” he said. “We are much closer to a housing bottom than many believe.” At the current sales pace it would take 8.5 months to sell all the previously owned homes on the market, compared with 11.3 months in April 2008, the highest level since at least 1999. For new houses, supply dropped to 7.3 months in August, the shortest period since January 2007. Economic growth will reach 3 percent next year, “maybe a little more,” LaVorgna said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last month projected the world’s largest economy will expand 2.4 percent in 2010, according to the median estimate. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, will fall below 1 percent in 2010, and that will open the way for the Federal Reserve to refrain from raising its benchmark interest rate next year, LaVorgna said.
- The Pentagon is establishing two new units devoted to the Afghan war, highlighting the military's focus on the conflict even as the White House considers scaling back the overall U.S. mission there. The units -- a so-called Afghan Hands program run out of the Pentagon and a new intelligence center within Central Command, which oversees the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- are designed to help troops deepen their intelligence about the country's complex political and tribal dynamics. The Defense Department also is expected to announce that Brig. Gen. John M. Nicholson, one of the military's top experts on counterinsurgency, will assume the helm of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Coordination Cell, a Pentagon office established earlier this year to improve the military's performance in Afghanistan. The moves underline the military's efforts to remake itself in response to the Afghan war despite the Obama administration's signals that it is far from committed to the current counterinsurgency approach.
- The U.S. slightly tweaked its forecast higher Tuesday for OPEC crude oil output and surplus production capacity in 2009. Crude oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will average 29.02 million barrels a day this year, a marginal increase over the previous estimate of 29.01 million barrels a day, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates in its latest monthly outlook. OPEC produced 28.7 million barrels a day during the first half of 2009. The EIA also raised its 2010 outlook for OPEC production by 300,000 barrels a day to 29.19 million barrels a day.
- Governor Corzine overwhelmingly finances key Democratic campaign funds, feeding more than $1.4 million into a system that critics -- and he himself -- have targeted for reform. He is the biggest individual contributor to New Jersey Democrats’ three fattest pots, according to campaign-finance data. And he has given more than any other person to 20 of 21 Democratic county committees. Publicly, Corzine has faulted these funds’ tradition of “wheeling” -- or sending checks to out-of-district candidates, free of contribution caps. Critics say the practice wrongfully favors moneyed interests over donors who can give just $2,600 to each candidate. Privately, the governor has added $1,457,000 of his personal wealth to the wheeling pool since he took office in 2006. That’s nearly eight times the $185,000 given by the second-highest donors, real-estate developer David S. Steiner and his wife, Sylvia.
- Brazil’s central bank and finance ministry are concerned that companies may lose money on wrong-way currency bets.Brazilian companies have $8 billion in bets against the US dollar.
ThisDay: - Nigeria may peg the price of oil for planning its 2010 budget at $50 a barrel, compared with $45 last year, citing Finance Minister Mansur Muhtar.