BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Retail longs, Medical longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are declining and volume is around average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The VIX is falling -.74% and is high at 21.33. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 75.0 and the total put/call is above average at .92. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day, hitting 1.77 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.75. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.65% today to 64.0 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +.10% to 96.42 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling 1 basis point to 21 basis points. The TED spread is now down 443 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -2.04% to 35.94 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is up +1 basis point to 12 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling -4 basis points to 2.0%, which is down 65 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .07%, which is up 1 basis point today.Small-caps are under pressure today, with the Russell 2000 falling 1.49%.I am still seeing signs that some of this small-cap weakness is related to liquidations at hedge fund Galleon Group.Healthcare reform worries are once again plaguing some healthcare-related shares.As well, today’s economic reports are helping to pressure commodity and homebuilding stocks.On the positive side, most credit default swap indices are mixed-to-lower and the bears have been unable, once again, to gain any meaningful traction.Several gauges of investor angst are very high today, given the muted nature of today’s decline, which is also a big positive.The ISE Sentiment Index, a gauge of retail options trader’s sentiment, hit 21.0 this morning, the lowest level since January 17th of 2008.While the major averages are extended, I continue to believe any pullbacks will be relatively mild and short-lived over the coming weeks.Nikkei futures indicate a -51 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -3 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, investment manager performance anxiety, lower long-term rates, lower energy prices and earnings optimism.
- Crude oil fell from a one-year high as U.S. equities dropped and the dollar rebounded, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. “The oil price going further up from here is perhaps the biggest risk to the global economic recovery,” said Kaha Kiknavelidze, a managing partner at London-based Rioni Capital Partners LLP, a hedge fund that specializes in emerging markets. “When we see that floating storage eliminated it means demand is coming,” El-Badri said. “We are seeing an $80 oil price that is a little bit high.” “There’s still a lot of oil out there,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “Demand in the developed would is still sluggish while what we see in China is impressive. Overall demand is a bit better than last year but that’s faint praise.”
- The Wall Street giants that received a financial lifeline from Washington may have no compunction about paying big bonuses to their dealmakers and traders. But their willingness to deliver “thank you” gifts to President Obama and the Democrats is another question altogether. Mr. Obama will fly to New York on Tuesday for a lavish Democratic Party fund-raising dinner at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel for about 200 big donors. Each donor is paying the legal maximum of $30,400 and is allowed to take a date. Four of the seven “co-chairs” listed on the invitation work in finance, and Democratic Party organizers say they expect that about a third of the attendees will come from the industry. But from the financial giants like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup that received federal bailout money — and whose bankers raised millions of dollars for Mr. Obama’s election — only a half-dozen or fewer are expected to attend (estimated total contribution: $91,200). Part of the reason, several Democratic fund-raisers and executives said, is a fear of getting caught in the public rage over the perception that Wall Street titans profiting from their government bailout may use their winnings to give back to Washington in return. And the timing of the event, as the industry lobbies against proposals for tighter regulations to address the underlying causes of last year’s meltdown on Wall Street, has only added to the worry over public appearances. “There are sensitivities there,” said Scott Talbot, a lobbyist for the industry’s Financial Services Roundtable. Mr. Obama remains a potent fund-raising draw. Plunging into the 2010 midterm campaigns last week, he raised more than $3 million in one night in San Francisco, speaking at a similar $30,400-a-couple dinner and a larger rally with tickets at $1,000 and under. In addition to the big-ticket dinner on Tuesday, Mr. Obama will also address a more small-d democratic event at New York’s Hammerstein Ballroom, where roughly 2,500 donors paying $1,000 or less will also make cellphone calls to promote his health care overhaul. Over the next five days he will appear at fund-raisers for Bill Owens, a candidate for a House seat in New York; Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey (himself a former Goldman Sachs banker); Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts; and Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut. Current Democratic fund-raisers say their 2008 take from Wall Street may also have benefited from the personal connections of the party’s chief fund-raiser that year, Philip D. Murphy, a former top executive at Goldman Sachs. (He is now ambassador to Germany). And as in recent years, Democrats are raising far more from Wall Street executives than Republicans, according to campaign finance data sorted by the Center for Responsive Politics. The Democrats, including House and Senate party committees and the party itself, have raised about $5.4 million through the first eight months of the year, while the Republicans took in just $2.7 million. Employees associated with the financial firms that received bailout money from the federal government contributed almost $70,000 to the Democratic Party in the first half . Most of that, $60,800, came from one couple who each contributed the legal limit. At the time of the donation, the husband, John M. Noel, had recently retired as head of a unit of the insurance giant AIG called AIG Travel Guard. Mr. Obama still has the loyalty of other powerful friends on Wall Street. Among the other chairmen of the Tuesday dinner in New York is Robert Wolf, head of the American investment banking division of the Swiss giant UBS Group. Mr. Wolf raised more than $500,000 for Mr. Obama’s campaign and sits on a White House panel of outside economic advisers.
- Apple’s(AAPL) Mac Line Receives Massive Makeover.On Tuesday, Apple updated virtually its entire Mac lineup, including its desktop iMacs, a new unibody MacBook, the Mac mini, and a new wireless Mighty Mouse. The iMac line has been totally reworked with 16:9 widescreens that are significantly larger than the previous 20-inch and 24-inch models. The new Mac mini looks the same, but of course has some new internals. The Mac mini is joined by a new server-based sibling: same case, but dual drives and no optical. Last but not least, the new iMacs come with a new, wireless multi-touch Magic Mouse.
- For voters, the economy outpaces all other issues by a wide margin, according to a new Public Strategies Inc./POLITICO poll. As the nation struggles to climb out of a recession, 45 percent rated the economy as the most important issue in deciding their vote if the congressional election were held today, followed by 21 percent who said government spending, 20 percent who chose health care reform and 9 percent who said the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Just 4 percent ranked climate change as the top issue. Economic worries also led a majority of Americans to place jump-starting the economy ahead of concerns about the environment. Even as the Obama administration is pushing for climate protection legislation, 62 percent of those polled agreed that “economic growth should be given priority, even if the environment suffers to some extent.”
- Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said there’s risk that some euro-area countries might default as a result of the global crisis, citing an interview.Rogoff said he can imagine state defaults in the 16-member region in about five year’s time. The US and Germany cannot afford to support all endangered states for a prolonged period, the Harvard professor was quoted as saying, adding that the deficit situation in countrieslike Iceland, Romania and Ukraine, which are being buttressed by the IMF, is extremely strained.
Daily Star: - The unemployment rate in the Middle East may rise to as high as 11% this year as a result of slowing economic growth, citing an International Labor Organization official.