- California’s push to lead U.S. sales of electric cars may result in higher power rates for consumers in the state, as a growing number of rechargeable vehicles forces utilities to pay for grid upgrades. The impact of the vehicles on electricity fees is being reviewed this month by California’s Public Utilities Commission as the most populous U.S. state will require Toyota Motor Corp., General Motors Co., Honda Motor Co., Ford Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. to sell more vehicles that can be powered at electric outlets from late 2011.
- American International Group Inc.’s(AIG) highest paid executives in the unit blamed for pushing the insurer to the brink of collapse haven’t returned bonuses as they’d promised, according to the Obama administration. Four of five managers in AIG’s Financial Products unit that are under the jurisdiction of pay master Kenneth Feinberg didn’t make good on pledges to return the bonuses as of August, Feinberg said in documents released today. The fifth employee hadn’t made any promise, Feinberg said. “The performance of AIG Financial Products has contributed significantly to the deterioration in AIG’s financial health,” Feinberg said. Compensation proposed by AIG for the staff doesn’t “adequately reflect the role of AIG Financial Products” in the decline of the insurer, he said. AIG, which received a $182.3 billion U.S. government bailout, ignited a backlash after giving about $165 million in March to its derivatives staff.
- In a one-two punch at the pay culture of banks and Wall Street firms blamed for the financial crisis, the U.S.Compensation experts said it would be hard for companies to escape the new oversight, though individuals could do so by jumping to hedge funds, private-equity funds and other financial firms beyond the reach of the new curbs. government announced plans to aggressively regulate compensation at thousands of lenders and impose steep pay cuts at seven companies that received billions in federal aid. While the moves had been anticipated for weeks, Thursday's separate announcements by the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department represent unprecedented federal intervention in pay decisions traditionally left to boards and shareholders. The crackdown is likely to influence how financial firms pay top executives, traders, loan officers and others whose actions could threaten the soundness of the institutions.
- Total, the French oil group, has warned politicians that they risk accelerating an oil supply crunch if they enact environmental policies that deter investment in oil and gas before enough viable alternatives are available. “Governments need to assess the needs of this planet in terms of energy and stop saying we will develop solar and then not have enough,” Christophe de Margerie, Total’s chief executive, said in an interview with the Financial Times. “Carbon is not the enemy; carbon is life.” Mr de Margerie has a relatively moderate position on climate change among his peers. He wants governments to enact clear, far-reaching policies to reduce carbon emissions so the oil industry can make investment decisions. “We as companies cannot take the risk. We are investing without knowing what the contractual framework on carbon will be,” he said. Mr de Margerie is the most vocal of his peers in terms of insisting environmental policy needs to go hand in hand with energy security policy. He warned policymakers heading to December’s climate change conference in Denmark: “Don’t go to Copenhagen only with your concern about the environment. We also have a concern over energy access. If you take only one [concern with you], we are dead and we don’t want to die.”
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations Citigroup:
- Rated (PPL) Buy, target $35.
- Reiterated Buy on (AMZN), raised estimates, boosted target to $140.
- Reiterated Buy on (HOT), target $40.
- Reiterated Buy on (COF), boosted target to $44.
Kaufman:
- Rated (VPRT) Buy, target $60.
Night Trading Asian Indices are +.75% to +1.50% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 99.0 -8.50 basis points.
S&P 500 futures +.28%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.
-.Existing Home Sales for September are estimated to rise to 5.35M versus 5.1M in August.
Upcoming Splits - None of Note
Other Potential Market Movers - The Fed’s Bernanke speaking and the Fed’s Kohn speaking could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and retail shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Biotech longs, Medical longs, Retail longs and Financial longs. I covered all my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is very bullish. The VIX is falling -7.74% and is high at 20.53. The ISE Sentiment Index is around average at 143.0 and the total put/call is around average at .82. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 1.36 at its intraday peak, and is currently .68. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.12% today to 63.67 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +3.0% to 100.55 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising +2 basis points to 24 basis points. The TED spread is now down 440 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -.35% to 35.81 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is up +1 basis point to 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is down -3 basis points to 1.97%, which is down 68 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is down -2 basis points today.Small-cap and Cyclical shares are substantially outperforming today.Semi, Financial, HMO, Insurance, Homebuilding, REIT, Gaming and Restaurant shares are especially strong, rising 2%+.(XLF) and (IYR) have traded very well throughout the day, which is always a big positive.The AAII % Bulls fell to 40.5% this week, while the % Bears rose to 35.7%, which is also a positive.Given the news today, which could have been construed as mostly negative, today’s advance is even more impressive.On the negative side, Nasdaq leaders are substantially underperforming and the Transports are slightly lower on the day.The whippy action over the last 2 days has likely left many aggressive funds poorly positioned again, which could lead to further near-term stock market gains.Nikkei futures indicate an +83 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +59 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less financial sector pessimism, investment manager performance anxiety, technical buying and earnings optimism.
- Why Doctors Are Worried.The troubles of the impending health care reform are upon us. Thinking about her and those like her makes me very angry. Should I tell her that the very art of medicine that I rely on to take care of her is in mortal jeopardy? I barely have enough time with my growing list of patients to concentrate on her case as it is, and the reform will bring me more patients with lower payments. Should I mention that many of my contemporaries (the network she relies on) are no longer accepting her Medicare, even before the reform bills sink their claws into it and cut Medicare to the bone with hundreds of billions in cuts? Should I say that primary care doctors like me already designate an employee to deal entirely with insurance, and that this problem will only get worse as we move in the direction of comparative effectiveness studies and bundling payments based on so-called quality? I lay awake at night thinking of the services I will deliver only to be denied payment.
- The number of Americans who believe there is solid evidence that the Earth is warming because of pollution is at its lowest point in three years, according to a survey released Thursday. The poll of 1,500 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found that only 57 percent believe there is strong scientific evidence that the Earth has gotten warmer over the past few decades, and as a result, people are viewing the problem as less serious. That's down from 77 percent in 2006. The steepest drop occurred during the last year, as Congress and the Obama administration have taken steps to control heat-trapping emissions for the first time. Despite misgivings about the science, half the respondents still said they supported limits on greenhouse gases, even if it could lead to higher energy prices. But many of those supporters have heard little to nothing about cap-and-trade, the main mechanism for reducing greenhouse gases favored by the White House and central to legislation passed by the House and a bill the Senate will take up next week. Under cap-and-trade, a price is put on each ton of pollution and businesses can buy and sell permits to meet emissions limits. Other results of the survey also suggest that it will be tough politically to enact a law limiting emissions of global warming pollution. While three-quarters of Democrats believe the evidence of a warming planet is solid, and nearly half believe the problem is serious, far fewer conservative and moderate Democrats see the problem as grave as they did last year. Regional differences were also detected. People living in the Midwest and mountainous areas of the West are far less likely to view global warming as a serious problem and to support limits on greenhouse gases than those in the Northeast and on the West Coast. Both the House and Senate bills have been drafted by lawmakers from Massachusetts and California.
- AIG Chief Executive Robert Benmosche has moved to assure employees that recently appointed U.S. pay czar Kenneth Feinberg will not attempt to claw back compensation. "It is important that all of you know that the Special Master's jurisdiction is quite limited, and we expect Feinberg's upcoming decisions on compensation to cover only the top 25 employees at AIG," Benmosche said in an internal memo distributed around the company late on Wednesday. The memo, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters, said the company was in "direct, near-daily discussions" with Feinberg, who has told AIG he will not seek retroactive salary adjustments. In the months since its bailout, AIG has become a lightning rod for public anger as it agreed to stick to million-dollar bonus agreements for employees, including nearly $500 million for those working within AIG Financial Products, the unit at the center of its financial meltdown. Federal officials have approved AIG's plan to pay Benmosche an annual salary of $3 million in cash and $4 million in fully vested stock. He also could receive a bonus valued as high as $3.5 million. AIG, once the world's largest insurer, got a $180 billion bailout in September 2008. The assistance included more than $80 billion in taxpayer loans to shore up a cash shortage after bets AIG took on the U.S. residential market soured in value, leaving the insurer short of funds to meet collateral calls.