BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Biotech longs and Financial longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are declining and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising +7.54% and is high at 22.24. The ISE Sentiment Index is around average at 140.0 and the total put/call is around average at .81. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day, hitting 1.91 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.89. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -2.47% today to 62.0 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.8% to 99.75 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling 1 basis point to 23 basis points. The TED spread is now down 441 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising +2.10% to 36.50 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is down -2 basis points to 11 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +3 basis points to 2.0%, which is down 65 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .05%, which is up +1 basis point today.Cyclicals are substantially underperforming today.The Transports are falling 3.7% and breaking slightly below their 50-day moving average.“Value” stocks have been outperforming “Growth” shares over the last several months.I suspect growth shares are now due for a period of outperformance as sluggish global growth worries take hold and v-shaped recovery hopes fade.On the positive side today, CDS indexes are not confirming stock weakness.Software, Retail, Internet and Medical shares are all higher or just slightly lower on the day.Market leading growth stocks are substantially outperforming the major averages.The massive surge higher in (AMZN) shares on enormous volume has to give many bears pause.As well, (MSFT) is breaking to a new 52-week high on the biggest volume in several years.Microsoft could become a large tailwind for the major averages.Nikkei futures indicate a -42 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +6 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on economic worries, more shorting, profit-taking and financial sector pessimism.
- Eric Dinallo, former New York state insurance superintendent, said reducing risk-taking by financial firms is more important than restricting executive pay. “The real problem is not around compensation,” Dinallo said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio in New York. “It is around the regulatory structure that has not been changed in Congress.” Congress must remedy the “mistake” it made in 1999 when it overturned the Glass-Steagall Act, which had separated investment banks from deposit-taking lenders, Dinallo said. “The abrogation of Glass-Steagall was a disaster,” Dinallo said. Banks that are “essentially being subsidized by America and the taxpayers” should be restricted from bets that risk depositors’ funds, Dinallo said. He urged Congress to curb credit-default swaps, which forced New York-based insurer American International Group Inc. to take a government rescue valued at $182.3 billion. “I am shocked that one year after this instrument brought a lot of havoc, it has not been solved yet,” Dinallo said.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), the world’s largest software maker, posted a smaller drop in profit than analysts estimated after slashing costs to make up for falling sales. The stock had its biggest jump in six months on the Nasdaq. Microsoft rose $2.07, or 7.8 percent, to $28.66 on the Nasdaq Stock Market at 10:13 a.m. New York time, after climbing as much as 10 percent, the biggest intraday jump since April 24.
- New Jersey taxpayers are sending almost $1 million a month to a partnership run by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) for protection against rising interest costs on bonds that the state redeemed more than a year ago. The most-densely populated U.S. state is making the payments under an agreement made during the administration of former Governor James E. McGreevey in 2003, when New Jersey’s Transportation Trust Fund Authority sold $345 million in auction-rate bonds whose yields fluctuated with short-term interest costs. The agency finances road and rail projects. “This vividly shows the risk of entering into interest- rate swap agreements,” said Christopher Taylor, former executive director of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board in Alexandria, Virginia. “The world’s got to see what stupidity even the sophisticated investors like the transportation fund can get into.”
- Sales of existing U.S. homes climbed in September to the highest level in more than two years as homebuyers rushed to take advantage of a tax credit before it runs out. Purchases jumped 9.4 percent to a 5.57 million annual rate, more than forecast and following a 5.09 rate in August, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price fell at the slowest pace in a year as the number of houses on the market shrank. The $8,000 credit for first-time buyers, due to expire Nov. 30, has probably pulled sales and construction forward, signaling housing may cool in coming months. While Congress is considering extending the incentive, lower prices and mortgage rates have also contributed to steadying a market that endured the worst slump since the Great Depression. “The rush to take advantage of the tax credit is obviously pushing up sales,” said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, who forecast sales would rise to a 5.5 million pace. “Although this is going to be temporary, it does absorb some excess supply and helps bring the market into balance going forward.” Purchases of existing homes were up 9.2 percent compared with a year earlier. The median price fell to $174,900, down 8.5 percent from a year ago. It was the smallest decrease in 13 months. The number of previously owned homes on the market dropped 7.5 percent to 3.63 million in September. At the current sales pace, it would take 7.8 months to sell those houses, the lowest level since March 2007. A seven months’ supply is usually consistent with stabilization in prices, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in recent months.
- The White House has told Congress it will reject calls for many of President Obama's policy czars to testify before Congress - a decision senators said goes against the president's promises of transparency and openness and treads on Congress' constitutional mandate to investigate the administration's actions. "I think Congress should be able to call the president's climate czar, Carol Browner, the energy and environment czar, to ask her about the negotiations she conducted with the automobile industry that led to very significant policy changes with regard to emissions standards," Miss Collins said at a hearing Thursday that examined the proliferation of czars. The debate goes to the heart of weighty constitutional issues about separation of powers. The president argues that he should be allowed to have advisers who are free to give him confidential advice without having to fear being called to testify about it. Democrats and Republicans in Congress, though, argue that those in office who actually craft policy should be able to be summoned to testify because they do more than just give the president advice. At issue are the 18 positions Miss Collins says Mr. Obama has created since he took office. Of those, she says 10 - the White House says eight - are in the executive office and not subject to Freedom of Information Act requests or requests for testimony.