BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs and Medical longs. I covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling -1.75% and is very high at 29.30. The ISE Sentiment Index is about average at 155.0 and the total put/call is above average at .96. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.53 at its intraday peak, and is currently .87. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising +.09% today to 68.83 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +2.06% to 108.09 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is down -1 basis point to 23 basis points. The TED spread is now down 441 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising +7.69% to 36.75 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +1 basis point to 2.05%, which is down 60 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is unch. today.Cyclicals are outperforming substantially today, rising +1.32%.The Transports are surging 4.81% on the (BNI) news.Road & Rail, Gaming, Gold, Oil Service and Coal shares are especially strong, rising 1.75%+.Given the weakness overseas last night/this morning and relative weakness in (XLF) this morning, today’s broad market rebound from morning lows is more impressive.As well, despite weakness in the Semis today on a downgrade, the MS Tech Index is near session highs, rising .1%.A number of key stocks seem to be finding support around their 50-day moving-averages.I have heard several predictions of a 10%+ unemployment rate, which is released on Friday.I will be surprised if it comes in above estimates of 9.9%.I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come in slightly better than estimates.I sense the bears are probably getting a bit impatient with their inability to gain meaningful downside traction over the last couple of days. Nikkei futures indicate a -17 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +23 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting, buyout speculation and less economic pessimism.
- Former Vice President Al Gore thought he had spotted a winner last year when a small California firm sought financing for an energy-saving technology from the venture capital firm where Mr. Gore is a partner. The company, Silver Spring Networks, produces hardware and software to make the electricity grid more efficient. It came to Mr. Gore’s firm, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, one of Silicon Valley’s top venture capital providers, looking for $75 million to expand its partnerships with utilities seeking to install millions of so-called smart meters in homes and businesses. Mr. Gore and his partners decided to back the company, and in gratitude Silver Spring retained him and John Doerr, another Kleiner Perkins partner, as unpaid corporate advisers. The deal appeared to pay off in a big way last week, when the Energy Department announced $3.4 billion in smart grid grants. Of the total, more than $560 million went to utilities with which Silver Spring has contracts. Kleiner Perkins and its partners, including Mr. Gore, could recoup their investment many times over in coming years. Silver Spring Networks is a foot soldier in the global green energy revolution Mr. Gore hopes to lead. Few people have been as vocal about the urgency of global warming and the need to reinvent the way the world produces and consumes energy. And few have put as much money behind their advocacy as Mr. Gore and are as well positioned to profit from this green transformation, if and when it comes. Critics, mostly on the political right and among global warming skeptics, say Mr. Gore is poised to become the world’s first “carbon billionaire,” profiteering from government policies he supports that would direct billions of dollars to the business ventures he has invested in.
- Voters for the first time are blaming President Obama nearly as much as President Bush for the country’s continuing economic problems. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 49% still blame the economic situation on the recession that began under Bush. But 45% now say the nation’s economic problems are caused more by Obama’s policies. Just a month ago, 55% pointed the finger at Bush, while only 37% said the policies Obama has put in place since taking office were at fault. These findings had remained largely unchanged since May.
- The tight New Jersey governor’s race, likely the most competitive of the three most closely watched contests in the nation Tuesday, is a rare test of which electoral factor is more decisive — an incumbent’s unpopularity or the structural politics of a state. Gov. Jon Corzine, the Democrat, is seeking a second term with approval ratings in the basement and at a time when the economy is deeply troubled. Yet he’s doing so in a state that has become solidly Democratic and while running against a conservative Republican, Chris Christie, who has his own challenges, not the least of which is an independent candidate whose presence makes it possible for the governor to win without capturing 50 percent of the vote. Here’s POLITICO’s list of five things that will determine if it's disapproval of Corzine or New Jersey’s deep-blue demography that wins the day:
Reuters:
- Liberia may have oil resources of over a billion barrels, with the first well expected to be drilled next year, a senior national oil company official said on Tuesday. Marie Leigh-Parker, NOCAL's senior vice president for administration and finance, said the first well would be drilled by Anadarko Petroleum (APC) next year. "We are hoping to get more than a billion barrels of oil," she told Reuters on the sidelines of an Africa oil conference.
- New orders received by U.S. factories rose a stronger-than-expected 0.9 percent in September, while inventories continued to shrink, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday in a report suggesting manufacturing activity is feeding the economic recovery. It was the fifth month out of six that orders rose, the department said. Inventories have now fallen for 13 months in a row, with factories paring their stocks by 1 percent in September. This is the longest streak of shrinking inventories since they fell 15 months in a row beginning in February 2001. While factories cut inventories more sharply in September than in August or July, the Commerce Department said last week inventory liquidation by all businesses slowed in the July through September period, adding nearly a percentage point to the increase in third-quarter Gross Domestic Product. In September, machinery, which makes up roughly 7 percent of factory orders, had the largest surge of 7.9 percent in its biggest increase since March 2008.
- Small businesses would be granted a permanent reprieve from complying with part of the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate reform laws, under a draft U.S. House of Representatives bill discussed on Tuesday. Small companies have not had to comply fully with the rules since the Sarbanes-Oxley law was approved in 2002 in response to the Enron and WorldCom corporate scandals. Companies with a market capitalization below $75 million have argued that they faced disproportionately higher costs compared with larger companies and have convinced regulators to delay compliance at least five times. The Securities and Exchange Commission is now requiring small companies to report on the effectiveness of their internal controls as of June 15, 2010. But Republicans, hoping to thwart this SEC requirement, introduced an amendment on Tuesday to a House Financial Services Committee draft bill to do just that.
- Institutional investors are going to gang up on "arrogant" hedge funds, a pension fund chairman warned, as investors increasingly press for changes that would link lucrative fees more closely to genuine outperformance. A key complaint of investors has been that while many of them lost money during the financial crisis, hedge fund managers were still able to rake in millions of dollars in fees. Last year, average hedge fund returns were a minus 19 percent. "If they want money from us they will have to offer ... alignment of interests. If hedge funds remain arrogant and not humble, I think money will go elsewhere," Philip Read, chairman of the British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme, said on Tuesday. "We're increasingly going to gang up against you... Institutional investors are totally disillusioned with funds not delivering what was on the tin," he told the Hedge 2009 conference in London.