S&P 500 1,087.65 +.55%
NASDAQ 1,813.26 +1.02%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.38%
Disk Drives +3.01%
Networking +1.92%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -.04%
Defense -.49%
Fashion -.56%
Other
Crude Oil 46.21 -.11%
Natural Gas 5.38 +.13%
Gold 405.00 -.42%
Base Metals 109.93 -.79%
U.S. Dollar 88.24 +.20%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.22% +.83%
VIX 16.57 -2.64%
Put/Call 1.0 +7.53%
NYSE Arms .64 -26.44%
Market Movers
NTAP +9.7% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
OHB +11.0% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 05 guidance.
ARB +9.7% after raising 3Q and 04 outlook substantially.
MSTR +5.8% after announcing strengthened global alliance with Syntel.
GNTX -7.6% after raising dividend and cutting 3Q outlook.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
HAL added to JP Morgan's Focus List. DELL rated Outperform at CSFB, target $40. IM rated Outperform at CSFB, target $17. SKS cut to Underweight at Prudential, target $12. MAR rated Focus 1 stock of the week at Merrill Lynch. EL raised to Buy at Bank of America. ASO raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $30. ARTC raised to Buy at Bank of America, target $30. AMT rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $18. TJX cut to Underweight at JP Morgan. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DOW, IP and PFE. Citi SmithBarney said to Buy FITB ahead of 3Q, target $58. Citi reiterated Buy on AMAT, target $22. Citi reiterated Buy on MO, target $65. Citi reiterated Buy on HAL, target $37. Citi reiterated Buy on BJ, target $30. Citi reiterated Buy on JCP, target $50.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on optimism over corporate earnings and stabilizing energy prices. Deloitte & Touche is being investigated by the governing body for Ontario's accounting industry over Nortel Networks' financial statements, Bloomberg reported. The Swift Boat Veterans for truth tv ad, which says Senator Kerry lied about his war record, has resulted in doubts in 27% of voters who planned or were likely to vote for Kerry, an independent study by HCD Research showed. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao urged banks to keep up lending curbs aimed at slowing the economy, state-owned China Central Television reported. US Airways Chairman Bronner says no one will be willing to rescue the airline if it files for bankruptcy, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported. The SEC is expected to formally approve Google's IPO today, the Wall Street Journal reported. Iraqi Shiite Muslim cleric al-Sadr agreed that his militia should lay down their arms and quit Najaf's Imam Ali Mosque, acceding to demands from an Iraqi delegation to end an uprising in the city, Reuters reported. Google lowered its IPO price to between $85-95 from $108-135, Bloomberg reported. The SEC ordered mutual funds to stop paying increased commissions to brokers in exchange for promoting the companies' funds, Bloomberg said. Janus Capital agreed to pay $100 million to settle U.S. regulators' allegations that the mutual fund company permitted "market timing," Bloomberg reported. For the first time since the Vietnam era, national security issues are largest concerns than the economy and jobs for U.S. voters, according to a report by the Pew Research Center. Crude oil prices rose after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. refineries boosted their operations and that gasoline demand rose to the highest level this year, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day as my homebuilding, semi and RFID-related longs are rising and my steel and Chinese ADR shorts are mixed. I added a few new technology longs this morning, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 100% net long. One of my new longs is SWIR and I am using a $22.50 stop-loss on the position. It is impressive that the market has sustained today's rally in the face of increasing oil prices this morning. The advance/decline line is strong and the Put/Call ratio is rising, which are also positives. Moreover, Google may have prevented disaster by lowering its offering price, which is good for psychology. I expect stocks to rise modestly in the afternoon.
Wednesday, August 18, 2004
Wednesday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
BRCD/.05
BKST/-.03
CAI/.58
BWS/.39
EV/.49
HAR/.68
HOTT/.10
INTU/-.07
MDT/.43
MW/.44
ROST/.29
SNPS/.32
TLB/.34
Splits
IMGC 3-for-2
POT 2-for-1
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on SPLS, AYE, MERQ, BIIB and AMAT. Goldman reiterated Underperform on FRX.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mixed as strength in Taiwan is offset by weakness in India. Iran would destroy Israel's Dimona nuclear reactor if Israel attacked an Iranian nuclear power plant under construction, the AP reported. Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said the island would never accept China's demand to refer to direct air links across the Taiwan Strait as "domestic" flights, the Taipei Times said. Sony expects to increase digital-camera production next fiscal year by at least 20% to 30% to try to meet demand, Bloomberg reported. A busy hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico may drive up crude oil prices, the Wall Street Journal reported. The National Weather Service is predicting an "above-average" season, with 12 to 15 tropical storms and two to four major hurricanes, the newspaper said. Venezuela's National Electoral Council will conduct an audit of Sunday's recall vote on President Hugo Chavez to address opposition allegations of fraud, Bloomberg said. ING Groep NV will withdraw about $5 billion from Janus Capital funds this year, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.15%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.11%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on stronger earnings reports and stabilizing energy prices. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
BRCD/.05
BKST/-.03
CAI/.58
BWS/.39
EV/.49
HAR/.68
HOTT/.10
INTU/-.07
MDT/.43
MW/.44
ROST/.29
SNPS/.32
TLB/.34
Splits
IMGC 3-for-2
POT 2-for-1
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on SPLS, AYE, MERQ, BIIB and AMAT. Goldman reiterated Underperform on FRX.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mixed as strength in Taiwan is offset by weakness in India. Iran would destroy Israel's Dimona nuclear reactor if Israel attacked an Iranian nuclear power plant under construction, the AP reported. Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said the island would never accept China's demand to refer to direct air links across the Taiwan Strait as "domestic" flights, the Taipei Times said. Sony expects to increase digital-camera production next fiscal year by at least 20% to 30% to try to meet demand, Bloomberg reported. A busy hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico may drive up crude oil prices, the Wall Street Journal reported. The National Weather Service is predicting an "above-average" season, with 12 to 15 tropical storms and two to four major hurricanes, the newspaper said. Venezuela's National Electoral Council will conduct an audit of Sunday's recall vote on President Hugo Chavez to address opposition allegations of fraud, Bloomberg said. ING Groep NV will withdraw about $5 billion from Janus Capital funds this year, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.15%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.11%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on stronger earnings reports and stabilizing energy prices. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into tomorrow.
Tuesday, August 17, 2004
Tuesday Close
S&P 500 1,081.71 +.22%
NASDAQ 1,795.25 +70%
Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +2.42%
Networking +2.20%
Homebuilders +1.95%
Lagging Sectors
Commodity -.64%
Energy -2.30%
Oil Service -2.48%
Other
Crude Oil 46.20 -.13%
Natural Gas 5.39 +.22%
Gold 406.40 -.07%
Base Metals 110.81 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 88.06 +.11%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.19% -1.68%
VIX 17.02 -3.13%
Put/Call .93 +10.71%
NYSE Arms .87 +135.14%
After-hours Movers
NTAP +6.96% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
PLAB +4.24% after beating 3Q estimates.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AVP, CLX and PG.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today, boosted by positive economic data and strong earnings reports. After the close, the Chinese government will invest $16.9 billion through 2020 in alternative energy sources, including wind and solar power, Nikkei English News said. Mexico's economy grew 3.9% in the second quarter, the faster pace since the global economy began plunging into recession in 2000, on resurgent demand from the U.S. for the country's electronics, oil and metals, Bloomberg reported. Applied Materials, the world's biggest maker of semiconductor-equipment, reported its largest quarterly profit in almost 4 years after chipmakers doubled purchases of its machines, Bloomberg said. Network Appliance, whose products store and distribute data for customers including the Vatican and Coca-Cola, said first-quarter net income jumped 73% as software sales surged, Bloomberg reported. Google said its IPO is being delayed for SEC approval of its paperwork, the AP reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today as my homebuilding, retail and semi longs all rose and my steel and Chinese ADR shorts were mixed. I did not trade in the afternoon and the Portfolio is still 75% net long. An interesting shift took place today with respect to investor psychology. Oil rose to another record and the major U.S. indices rallied. As well, interest rates and commodity-related stocks fell. The market seems to be saying that inflation is not nearly the problem the bears and media made it out to be and that oil is approaching at least an intermediate-term top. A fall in oil prices back to around the mid-30's/bbl. during the next couple of months should solidify this view.
NASDAQ 1,795.25 +70%
Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +2.42%
Networking +2.20%
Homebuilders +1.95%
Lagging Sectors
Commodity -.64%
Energy -2.30%
Oil Service -2.48%
Other
Crude Oil 46.20 -.13%
Natural Gas 5.39 +.22%
Gold 406.40 -.07%
Base Metals 110.81 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 88.06 +.11%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.19% -1.68%
VIX 17.02 -3.13%
Put/Call .93 +10.71%
NYSE Arms .87 +135.14%
After-hours Movers
NTAP +6.96% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
PLAB +4.24% after beating 3Q estimates.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AVP, CLX and PG.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today, boosted by positive economic data and strong earnings reports. After the close, the Chinese government will invest $16.9 billion through 2020 in alternative energy sources, including wind and solar power, Nikkei English News said. Mexico's economy grew 3.9% in the second quarter, the faster pace since the global economy began plunging into recession in 2000, on resurgent demand from the U.S. for the country's electronics, oil and metals, Bloomberg reported. Applied Materials, the world's biggest maker of semiconductor-equipment, reported its largest quarterly profit in almost 4 years after chipmakers doubled purchases of its machines, Bloomberg said. Network Appliance, whose products store and distribute data for customers including the Vatican and Coca-Cola, said first-quarter net income jumped 73% as software sales surged, Bloomberg reported. Google said its IPO is being delayed for SEC approval of its paperwork, the AP reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today as my homebuilding, retail and semi longs all rose and my steel and Chinese ADR shorts were mixed. I did not trade in the afternoon and the Portfolio is still 75% net long. An interesting shift took place today with respect to investor psychology. Oil rose to another record and the major U.S. indices rallied. As well, interest rates and commodity-related stocks fell. The market seems to be saying that inflation is not nearly the problem the bears and media made it out to be and that oil is approaching at least an intermediate-term top. A fall in oil prices back to around the mid-30's/bbl. during the next couple of months should solidify this view.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,083.26 +.36%
NASDAQ 1,799.50 +.93%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.49%
Semis +2.27%
I-Banks +2.12%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -.43%
Oil Service -1.93%
Energy -1.98%
Other
Crude Oil 46.33 +1.34%
Natural Gas 5.42 +.78%
Gold 406.40 +.30%
Base Metals 111.29 -.37%
U.S. Dollar 88.05 +.10%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.22% -.95%
VIX 16.94 -3.59%
Put/Call .93 +10.71%
NYSE Arms .77 +108.11%
Market Movers
HD +3.5% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 04 guidance.
HAL -3.5% after saying the U.S. Army will withhold 15% of payments for feeding and housing U.S. troops in Iraq.
NVEC +24.6% after announcing it has been notified by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office of the expected grant of a key MRAM patent.
WIND +18.5% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and raising 3Q/4Q guidance.
DKS+14.0% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q/4Q outlook.
*Homebuilders are up across the board on better-than-expected Housing Starts and falling interest rates.
*Energy stocks are down across the board on speculation energy prices are topping.
EL -8.3% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for July fell .1% versus estimates of a .2% rise and an increase of .3% in June.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for July rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% rise and a .1% increase in June.
Housing Starts for July were 1978K versus estimates of 1898K and an upwardly revised 1826K in June.
Building Permits for July were 2055K versus estimates of 1950K and an upwardly revised 1945K in June.
Industrial Production for July rose .4% versus estimates of a .5% increase and a downwardly revised decrease of .5% in June.
Capacity Utilization for July was 77.1% versus estimates of 77.5% and 76.9% in June.
Recommendations
CIBC rated EMR Sector Outperform, target $72. CIBC rated GE Sector Outperform, target $38. FCX rated Buy at Legg Mason, target $42. PD rated Buy at Legg Mason, target $100. FILE rated Overweight at Prudential, target $25. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BAX, KSS, IR, AMT, ETN and HD. Goldman reiterated Underperform on VRTX, AG, CNH and SGP. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on SSI, target $54.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on better-than-expected economic data and strong earnings reports. Moody's Investors Service yesterday gave the U.S. its top Aaa rating on its debt, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Homeland Security officials said they plan to begin screening airline passengers against a list of potential terror suspects, taking over the duty from the airlines, the NY Times reported. Bond investors are buying more non-conventional mortgage-backed securities, including loans to borrowers with low credit scores and home-equity loans, as interest rates rise, the Wall Street Journal reported. Thefts from luggage at airports have been increasing, in part because of a federal security requirement that all checked bags can be inspected by security screeners, the NY Times reported. New York state lawmakers have approved the first tax credit for film and tv productions in the state to counter the flight of industry jobs to Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto, the NY Times reported. OAO Yukos Oil lost its appeal to suspend an enforcement order on a $3.4 billion tax bill, Interfax reported. Shares of Motorola are rising after Reuters quoted an executive in Singapore as saying the company will have strong sales growth for the rest of the year. California Governor Schwarzenegger is preparing to sign new gambling agreements with several Indian tribes, including one that will create a casino near San Francisco, the LA Times reported. Costco is test-marketing caskets at two of its Chicago-area stores, the AP said. Staples said second-quarter earnings climbed 39%, beating analysts' estimates, Bloomberg said. RealNetworks will begin selling Internet music at half price today as it steps up efforts to draw customers from Apple Computer's iTunes site, Bloomberg reported. Home Depot said second-quarter earnings climbed 19%, beating estimates, helped by strong appliance sales and home installation services, Bloomberg said. U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in July, the first decline is eight months, as shoppers paid less for gasoline, clothing and transportation, Bloomberg reported. U.S. housing starts rose more than forecast in July as builders responded to the best two months of home sales on record, Bloomberg said. Deere & Co. said third-quarter profit climbed 62% as farmers boosted spending on tractors and combines, and demand for construction and forestry machines increased, Bloomberg said. Money managers this month boosted the proportion of assets held in cash to the highest since March 2003, when a major global stock rally began, Merrill Lynch said. Fidelity increased stakes in Elan and Cisco and cut those of Motorola and Texas Instruments, Bloomberg reported. Berkshire Hathaway bought 5 million shares of Comcast in April, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day as my homebuilding, retail and semi longs are rising and my shorts are mixed. I took profits in one of my computer longs this morning and added a small long position in homebuilder OHB. I am using a $16.25 stop-loss on this position. The Portfolio is still 75% net long. The tone of the market and psychology is improving today. It appears that investors are finally paying attention to the better inflation readings I have been talking about for weeks and interest rates are dropping. As well, the sell-off in the energy stocks is a result of speculation that oil is very close to a top. A rotation from this sector into interest-rates sensitive groups, such as homebuilders, is currently underway. It is also positive that the Arms and Put/Call readings are rising. I am a bit concerned about the market's reception of Google's IPO and this could pressure the tech sector again short-term. As well, terrorism worries will likely take front stage again early next week ahead of the Republican convention.
NASDAQ 1,799.50 +.93%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.49%
Semis +2.27%
I-Banks +2.12%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -.43%
Oil Service -1.93%
Energy -1.98%
Other
Crude Oil 46.33 +1.34%
Natural Gas 5.42 +.78%
Gold 406.40 +.30%
Base Metals 111.29 -.37%
U.S. Dollar 88.05 +.10%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.22% -.95%
VIX 16.94 -3.59%
Put/Call .93 +10.71%
NYSE Arms .77 +108.11%
Market Movers
HD +3.5% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 04 guidance.
HAL -3.5% after saying the U.S. Army will withhold 15% of payments for feeding and housing U.S. troops in Iraq.
NVEC +24.6% after announcing it has been notified by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office of the expected grant of a key MRAM patent.
WIND +18.5% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and raising 3Q/4Q guidance.
DKS+14.0% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q/4Q outlook.
*Homebuilders are up across the board on better-than-expected Housing Starts and falling interest rates.
*Energy stocks are down across the board on speculation energy prices are topping.
EL -8.3% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for July fell .1% versus estimates of a .2% rise and an increase of .3% in June.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for July rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% rise and a .1% increase in June.
Housing Starts for July were 1978K versus estimates of 1898K and an upwardly revised 1826K in June.
Building Permits for July were 2055K versus estimates of 1950K and an upwardly revised 1945K in June.
Industrial Production for July rose .4% versus estimates of a .5% increase and a downwardly revised decrease of .5% in June.
Capacity Utilization for July was 77.1% versus estimates of 77.5% and 76.9% in June.
Recommendations
CIBC rated EMR Sector Outperform, target $72. CIBC rated GE Sector Outperform, target $38. FCX rated Buy at Legg Mason, target $42. PD rated Buy at Legg Mason, target $100. FILE rated Overweight at Prudential, target $25. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BAX, KSS, IR, AMT, ETN and HD. Goldman reiterated Underperform on VRTX, AG, CNH and SGP. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on SSI, target $54.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on better-than-expected economic data and strong earnings reports. Moody's Investors Service yesterday gave the U.S. its top Aaa rating on its debt, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Homeland Security officials said they plan to begin screening airline passengers against a list of potential terror suspects, taking over the duty from the airlines, the NY Times reported. Bond investors are buying more non-conventional mortgage-backed securities, including loans to borrowers with low credit scores and home-equity loans, as interest rates rise, the Wall Street Journal reported. Thefts from luggage at airports have been increasing, in part because of a federal security requirement that all checked bags can be inspected by security screeners, the NY Times reported. New York state lawmakers have approved the first tax credit for film and tv productions in the state to counter the flight of industry jobs to Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto, the NY Times reported. OAO Yukos Oil lost its appeal to suspend an enforcement order on a $3.4 billion tax bill, Interfax reported. Shares of Motorola are rising after Reuters quoted an executive in Singapore as saying the company will have strong sales growth for the rest of the year. California Governor Schwarzenegger is preparing to sign new gambling agreements with several Indian tribes, including one that will create a casino near San Francisco, the LA Times reported. Costco is test-marketing caskets at two of its Chicago-area stores, the AP said. Staples said second-quarter earnings climbed 39%, beating analysts' estimates, Bloomberg said. RealNetworks will begin selling Internet music at half price today as it steps up efforts to draw customers from Apple Computer's iTunes site, Bloomberg reported. Home Depot said second-quarter earnings climbed 19%, beating estimates, helped by strong appliance sales and home installation services, Bloomberg said. U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in July, the first decline is eight months, as shoppers paid less for gasoline, clothing and transportation, Bloomberg reported. U.S. housing starts rose more than forecast in July as builders responded to the best two months of home sales on record, Bloomberg said. Deere & Co. said third-quarter profit climbed 62% as farmers boosted spending on tractors and combines, and demand for construction and forestry machines increased, Bloomberg said. Money managers this month boosted the proportion of assets held in cash to the highest since March 2003, when a major global stock rally began, Merrill Lynch said. Fidelity increased stakes in Elan and Cisco and cut those of Motorola and Texas Instruments, Bloomberg reported. Berkshire Hathaway bought 5 million shares of Comcast in April, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day as my homebuilding, retail and semi longs are rising and my shorts are mixed. I took profits in one of my computer longs this morning and added a small long position in homebuilder OHB. I am using a $16.25 stop-loss on this position. The Portfolio is still 75% net long. The tone of the market and psychology is improving today. It appears that investors are finally paying attention to the better inflation readings I have been talking about for weeks and interest rates are dropping. As well, the sell-off in the energy stocks is a result of speculation that oil is very close to a top. A rotation from this sector into interest-rates sensitive groups, such as homebuilders, is currently underway. It is also positive that the Arms and Put/Call readings are rising. I am a bit concerned about the market's reception of Google's IPO and this could pressure the tech sector again short-term. As well, terrorism worries will likely take front stage again early next week ahead of the Republican convention.
Tuesday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AMAT/.25
BJ/.37
BGP/.06
HD/.64
EL/.32
DKS/.33
DE/1.50
JCP/.23
TJX/.24
SPLS/.22
SKS/-.12
WIND/-.02
Splits
RNT 3-for-2
WIRE 3-for-2
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for July estimated +.2% versus +.3% in June.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for July estimated +.2% versus +.1% in June.
Housing Starts for July estimated at 1895K versus 1802K in June.
Building Permits for July estimated at 1950K versus 1945K in June.
Industrial Production for July estimated +.5% versus -.3% in June.
Capacity Utilization for July estimated at 77.5% versus 77.2% in June.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on SGP. Goldman reiterated Outperform on BAX.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are quietly higher on a decline in energy prices and a rally in U.S. shares. OAO Yukos Oil, Russia's biggest oil exporter, posted a first-half loss of $2.7 billion, compared with a profit of $1.3 billion for the same period in 2003, the Financial Times reported. A crackdown by Pakistani security forces on Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network is forcing members of the group to flee the country, Agence France-Presse said. Microsoft may sign a three-year deal with the U.K. government that offers enhanced services and support to its basic software packages, the Financial Times reported. Former employees of MediaOne that hold AT&T Wireless stock options may sue Cingular for forcing them to exercise the options when Cingular completes its acquisition of AT&T Wireless, USA Today reported. China bank may raise interest rates as early as Oct. 1 as the government switches to market forces from administrative measures to cool the economy, the Securities Daily said. President Bush and Senator Kerry should concentrate on fighting terrorism if they want to help the U.S. economy, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey of its members.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.09%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher on better-than-expected economic data and better earnings reports. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
AMAT/.25
BJ/.37
BGP/.06
HD/.64
EL/.32
DKS/.33
DE/1.50
JCP/.23
TJX/.24
SPLS/.22
SKS/-.12
WIND/-.02
Splits
RNT 3-for-2
WIRE 3-for-2
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for July estimated +.2% versus +.3% in June.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for July estimated +.2% versus +.1% in June.
Housing Starts for July estimated at 1895K versus 1802K in June.
Building Permits for July estimated at 1950K versus 1945K in June.
Industrial Production for July estimated +.5% versus -.3% in June.
Capacity Utilization for July estimated at 77.5% versus 77.2% in June.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on SGP. Goldman reiterated Outperform on BAX.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are quietly higher on a decline in energy prices and a rally in U.S. shares. OAO Yukos Oil, Russia's biggest oil exporter, posted a first-half loss of $2.7 billion, compared with a profit of $1.3 billion for the same period in 2003, the Financial Times reported. A crackdown by Pakistani security forces on Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network is forcing members of the group to flee the country, Agence France-Presse said. Microsoft may sign a three-year deal with the U.K. government that offers enhanced services and support to its basic software packages, the Financial Times reported. Former employees of MediaOne that hold AT&T Wireless stock options may sue Cingular for forcing them to exercise the options when Cingular completes its acquisition of AT&T Wireless, USA Today reported. China bank may raise interest rates as early as Oct. 1 as the government switches to market forces from administrative measures to cool the economy, the Securities Daily said. President Bush and Senator Kerry should concentrate on fighting terrorism if they want to help the U.S. economy, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey of its members.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.09%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher on better-than-expected economic data and better earnings reports. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into tomorrow.
Monday, August 16, 2004
Monday Close
S&P 500 1,079.34 +1.37%
NASDAQ 1,782.84 +1.46%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +5.56%
I-Banks +3.33%
Biotech +3.15%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals +.33%
Foods +.23%
Restaurants +.18%
Other
Crude Oil 45.53 -.35%
Natural Gas 5.38 +.13%
Gold 404.90 -.07%
Base Metals 111.70 +.57%
U.S. Dollar 87.96 +.07%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.26% +.78%
VIX 17.57 -2.28%
Put/Call .84 -20.0%
NYSE Arms .37 -69.17%
After-hours Movers
PIR +5.85% after it was reported that Berkshire Hathaway held 8 million shares of its stock.
MANT +15.04% after beating 2Q sales estimates and raising 3Q outlook.
AMT -5.41% after announcing it is seeking to raise $300 million through an institutional placement of convertible notes.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on KO and KRB.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today as the Venezuelan political situation calmed, opening Olympic ceremonies went smoothly and energy prices fell. After the close, Krispy Kreme Doughnuts COO John Tate will resign, the Wall Street Journal reported. Google asked the SEC to declare its IPO effective tomorrow at 4 p.m., CNBC reported. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Republican Pat Roberts said he would introduce a bill this week to create the position of U.S. intelligence director as three former heads of the CIA endorsed the idea, Bloomberg reported. The Bush administration informed the European Union it wants to scrap a 12-year-old agreement that let EU members subsidize Airbus SAS, the world's biggest plan manufacturer, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today and I covered a few of my Russian ADR shorts in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. Today's market action appeared to be the result of oversold technical conditions and short covering. However, a better-than-expected CPI reading, a continuing drop in energy prices and better earnings reports could spur further gains.
NASDAQ 1,782.84 +1.46%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +5.56%
I-Banks +3.33%
Biotech +3.15%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals +.33%
Foods +.23%
Restaurants +.18%
Other
Crude Oil 45.53 -.35%
Natural Gas 5.38 +.13%
Gold 404.90 -.07%
Base Metals 111.70 +.57%
U.S. Dollar 87.96 +.07%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.26% +.78%
VIX 17.57 -2.28%
Put/Call .84 -20.0%
NYSE Arms .37 -69.17%
After-hours Movers
PIR +5.85% after it was reported that Berkshire Hathaway held 8 million shares of its stock.
MANT +15.04% after beating 2Q sales estimates and raising 3Q outlook.
AMT -5.41% after announcing it is seeking to raise $300 million through an institutional placement of convertible notes.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on KO and KRB.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today as the Venezuelan political situation calmed, opening Olympic ceremonies went smoothly and energy prices fell. After the close, Krispy Kreme Doughnuts COO John Tate will resign, the Wall Street Journal reported. Google asked the SEC to declare its IPO effective tomorrow at 4 p.m., CNBC reported. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Republican Pat Roberts said he would introduce a bill this week to create the position of U.S. intelligence director as three former heads of the CIA endorsed the idea, Bloomberg reported. The Bush administration informed the European Union it wants to scrap a 12-year-old agreement that let EU members subsidize Airbus SAS, the world's biggest plan manufacturer, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today and I covered a few of my Russian ADR shorts in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. Today's market action appeared to be the result of oversold technical conditions and short covering. However, a better-than-expected CPI reading, a continuing drop in energy prices and better earnings reports could spur further gains.
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