Indices
S&P 500 1,098.35 +3.15%
Dow 10,110.14 +2.90%
NASDAQ 1,838.02 +4.60%
Russell 2000 547.92 +5.90%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 953.09 +.19%
Put/Call .96 -8.57%
NYSE Arms .66 -45.0%
Volatility(VIX) 16.00 -11.01%
AAII % Bulls 34.88 -9.57%
US Dollar 88.12 +.25%
CRB 276.49 +2.71%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 415.50 +3.54%
Crude Oil 46.72 +1.30%
Unleaded Gasoline 126.73 -5.46%
Natural Gas 5.55 +.22%
Base Metals 110.75 -.29%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.23% unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.81% -.68%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +12.03%
Networking +9.17%
Biotechnology +8.98%
Lagging Sectors
Utilities +1.34%
Hospitals +1.10%
Energy +.92%
*% Gain or loss for the week
Saturday, August 21, 2004
Friday, August 20, 2004
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,094.53 +.30%
NASDAQ 1,827.50 +.42%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +3.35%
Airlines +2.95%
Energy +1.48%
Lagging Sectors
Internet -.12%
Retail -.36%
Fashion -.85%
Other
Crude Oil 47.88 +.50%
Natural Gas 5.58 +1.33%
Gold 416.00 +1.64%
Base Metals 110.71 -.31%
U.S. Dollar 88.02 +.26%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.23% +.37%
VIX 16.38 -3.42%
Put/Call 1.16 +30.34%
NYSE Arms .74 -30.19%
Market Movers
CYBX +37.5% after announcing ANSI bought a 15% stake in the company last week and said it wants to discuss a merger. ANSI -5.1%.
RSE +40.0% after General Growth Properties agreed to buy it for about $7.2 billion in cash.
MRVL +6.7% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
ELBO +11.8% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and raising 3Q outlook.
CRDN +15.6% after announcing the receipt of a new 36-month Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity government contract for lightweight ceramic body armor with a maximum value of $461 million.
ADSK +9.8% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q forecast.
BCSI -10.5% after Wachovia downgrade to Market Perform.
JWN -8.5% after missing 2Q forecast, lowering 3Q outlook, boosting 04 guidance and raising dividend.
SMRT -7.4% after beating 2Q estimates, raising 3Q outlook and downgrade to Neutral by SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
CREE rated Buy at Wells Fargo, target $31. FMX raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. RD raised to Buy at Merrill, target $53.27. BBA raised to Strong Buy, target $9. JNJ rated Overweight at Prudential, target $61. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BBY, STZ, MRVL, TRW, HD, PETC, AET, AIG, BIIB, PFE, NT, EXC, BSX and N. Goldman reiterated Underperform on GM, RAI, HCC, WIN and F. Citi SmithBarney raised HAIN to Buy, target $21. Citi upgraded PXLW to Buy, target $13. Citi reiterated Buy on WB, target $53. Citi rated IPXL Buy, target $18. Citi reiterated Buy on NT, target $5. Citi reiterated Buy on AMAT, target $22.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly higher mid-day on improvements in the big picture in Iraq and falling oil prices. Home Depot's Canadian unit plans to open stores with about half the space of its warehouse-size outlets to compete against Rona Inc. and Canadian Tire Corp. in smaller communities, the National Post reported. Lehman Brothers lowered its estimates for inflation next year, cutting its forecast for the CPI from 2.5% to 2.0%, Bloomberg reported. Moqtada al-Sadr favors a political role in the nation's future rather than persisting with a military standoff, said Rime Allaf at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs, Bloomberg said. Anadarko Petroleum, a U.S. oil and natural-gas producer agreed to sell properties in the Gulf of Mexico to Apache Corp. and Morgan Stanley Capital Group for a combined $1.31 billion, Bloomberg reported. Rubina Muqimyar, the first Afghan woman to compete in track and field at the Olympics, set a national 100-meter record in her heat in Athens, Bloomberg said. The U.S. charged three men with supporting the Islamist terror group Hamas through a 15-year racketeering conspiracy, Bloomberg reported. Oil prices approaching levels that triggered past recessions are unlikely to cause a downturn this time because interest rates are so low, economists at NY-based Economic Cycle Research Institute said. The Arab Janjaweed militia continues to attack black Africans in the Darfur region of Sudan and 30,000 people might flee across the border to Chad, Bloomberg reported. Phelps Dodge, Canada's Teck Cominco and the U.K.'s Antofagasta Plc are profiting from record prices for molybdenum, a byproduct of copper mining, as stainless-steel mills buy more of the metal that prevents corrosion, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day as my alternative energy, homebuilding and technology longs are rising and my Chinese ADR shorts are falling. I have not traded and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. The tone of the market is pretty good. Most sectors are higher and the advance/decline line is showing strength. As well, the Put/Call ratio is rising again. I expect U.S. stocks to rise modestly into the close. However, a significant reversal in oil prices could send shares meaningfully higher.
NASDAQ 1,827.50 +.42%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +3.35%
Airlines +2.95%
Energy +1.48%
Lagging Sectors
Internet -.12%
Retail -.36%
Fashion -.85%
Other
Crude Oil 47.88 +.50%
Natural Gas 5.58 +1.33%
Gold 416.00 +1.64%
Base Metals 110.71 -.31%
U.S. Dollar 88.02 +.26%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.23% +.37%
VIX 16.38 -3.42%
Put/Call 1.16 +30.34%
NYSE Arms .74 -30.19%
Market Movers
CYBX +37.5% after announcing ANSI bought a 15% stake in the company last week and said it wants to discuss a merger. ANSI -5.1%.
RSE +40.0% after General Growth Properties agreed to buy it for about $7.2 billion in cash.
MRVL +6.7% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
ELBO +11.8% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and raising 3Q outlook.
CRDN +15.6% after announcing the receipt of a new 36-month Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity government contract for lightweight ceramic body armor with a maximum value of $461 million.
ADSK +9.8% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q forecast.
BCSI -10.5% after Wachovia downgrade to Market Perform.
JWN -8.5% after missing 2Q forecast, lowering 3Q outlook, boosting 04 guidance and raising dividend.
SMRT -7.4% after beating 2Q estimates, raising 3Q outlook and downgrade to Neutral by SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
CREE rated Buy at Wells Fargo, target $31. FMX raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. RD raised to Buy at Merrill, target $53.27. BBA raised to Strong Buy, target $9. JNJ rated Overweight at Prudential, target $61. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BBY, STZ, MRVL, TRW, HD, PETC, AET, AIG, BIIB, PFE, NT, EXC, BSX and N. Goldman reiterated Underperform on GM, RAI, HCC, WIN and F. Citi SmithBarney raised HAIN to Buy, target $21. Citi upgraded PXLW to Buy, target $13. Citi reiterated Buy on WB, target $53. Citi rated IPXL Buy, target $18. Citi reiterated Buy on NT, target $5. Citi reiterated Buy on AMAT, target $22.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are modestly higher mid-day on improvements in the big picture in Iraq and falling oil prices. Home Depot's Canadian unit plans to open stores with about half the space of its warehouse-size outlets to compete against Rona Inc. and Canadian Tire Corp. in smaller communities, the National Post reported. Lehman Brothers lowered its estimates for inflation next year, cutting its forecast for the CPI from 2.5% to 2.0%, Bloomberg reported. Moqtada al-Sadr favors a political role in the nation's future rather than persisting with a military standoff, said Rime Allaf at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs, Bloomberg said. Anadarko Petroleum, a U.S. oil and natural-gas producer agreed to sell properties in the Gulf of Mexico to Apache Corp. and Morgan Stanley Capital Group for a combined $1.31 billion, Bloomberg reported. Rubina Muqimyar, the first Afghan woman to compete in track and field at the Olympics, set a national 100-meter record in her heat in Athens, Bloomberg said. The U.S. charged three men with supporting the Islamist terror group Hamas through a 15-year racketeering conspiracy, Bloomberg reported. Oil prices approaching levels that triggered past recessions are unlikely to cause a downturn this time because interest rates are so low, economists at NY-based Economic Cycle Research Institute said. The Arab Janjaweed militia continues to attack black Africans in the Darfur region of Sudan and 30,000 people might flee across the border to Chad, Bloomberg reported. Phelps Dodge, Canada's Teck Cominco and the U.K.'s Antofagasta Plc are profiting from record prices for molybdenum, a byproduct of copper mining, as stainless-steel mills buy more of the metal that prevents corrosion, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day as my alternative energy, homebuilding and technology longs are rising and my Chinese ADR shorts are falling. I have not traded and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. The tone of the market is pretty good. Most sectors are higher and the advance/decline line is showing strength. As well, the Put/Call ratio is rising again. I expect U.S. stocks to rise modestly into the close. However, a significant reversal in oil prices could send shares meaningfully higher.
Friday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
None of note.
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BSX, HD and BIIB.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are quietly mixed on strength in Australia and weakness in China. South Korea asked the U.S. to delay its troop reduction on the Korean peninsula by more than a year, the Korea Times newspaper said. Taiwan's AU Optronics, which makes flat-panel displays used in computers and televisions, forecasts flat-panel prices will stabilize after September on rising demand, the Economic Daily News said. A nationwide inventory by the U.S. Dept. of Energy has found that data involving nuclear weapons is missing from a regional office in Albuquerque, New Mexico, the AP reported. Moqtada al-Sadr ordered his militiamen to leave hold shrines in Najaf, Bloomberg reported. U.S. shrimp fishermen need to reduce the number of boats in their fleet and find a new way to market their product to combat falling prices and surging imports, Bloomberg said. California Governor Schwarzenegger reached agreements with five Indian tribes that will expand the gambling industry in the most-populous U.S. state and pave the way for California's first urban casino, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.22%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly lower in the morning on fears of further oil supply disruptions over the weekend. However, stocks should rise later in the day on short-covering and optimism that the big picture in Iraq is improving. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
None of note.
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BSX, HD and BIIB.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are quietly mixed on strength in Australia and weakness in China. South Korea asked the U.S. to delay its troop reduction on the Korean peninsula by more than a year, the Korea Times newspaper said. Taiwan's AU Optronics, which makes flat-panel displays used in computers and televisions, forecasts flat-panel prices will stabilize after September on rising demand, the Economic Daily News said. A nationwide inventory by the U.S. Dept. of Energy has found that data involving nuclear weapons is missing from a regional office in Albuquerque, New Mexico, the AP reported. Moqtada al-Sadr ordered his militiamen to leave hold shrines in Najaf, Bloomberg reported. U.S. shrimp fishermen need to reduce the number of boats in their fleet and find a new way to market their product to combat falling prices and surging imports, Bloomberg said. California Governor Schwarzenegger reached agreements with five Indian tribes that will expand the gambling industry in the most-populous U.S. state and pave the way for California's first urban casino, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.22%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly lower in the morning on fears of further oil supply disruptions over the weekend. However, stocks should rise later in the day on short-covering and optimism that the big picture in Iraq is improving. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.
Thursday, August 19, 2004
Thursday Close
S&P 500 1,091.23 -.36%
NASDAQ 1,819.89 -.63%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.05%
Commodity +.82%
Fashion +.76%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -1.15%
Disk Drives -1.75%
Airlines -2.81%
Other
Crude Oil 47.68 +.08%
Natural Gas 5.51 +.05%
Gold 409.40 +.02%
Base Metals 111.05 +1.37%
U.S. Dollar 87.79 -.33%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.21% -.59%
VIX 16.96 +4.50%
Put/Call .89 -9.18%
NYSE Arms 1.06 +146.51%
After-hours Movers
ELBO +8.45% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and raising 3Q outlook.
SRNA +7.76% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
ADSK +7.01% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q forecast.
BCSI -11.42% after meeting 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q guidance.
JWN -6.85% after missing 2Q forecast, lowering 3Q outlook, boosting 04 guidance and raising dividend.
MRVL -5.16% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
SHRP -5.62% after meeting 2Q estimates, but lowering 3Q guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BSX and SLB. Goldman reiterated Underperform on CIEN.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower today as oil surged and some economic data came in below expectations. After the close, Goldman Sachs plans to build a new $1.8 billion 40-story headquarters in Battery Park City in Manhattan, Bloomberg reported. United Airlines, trying to attract financing to exit bankruptcy, said it probably will terminate and replace all its pension plans, Bloomberg said. Crude oil futures jumped to a record $48.70/bbl. in NY on concern Iraqi exports may drop further because of clashes in southern Iraq, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today as my alternative energy and software longs rose and my healthcare shorts fell. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus the Portfolio is still 125% net long. While market action today was a win for the bears, it is a positive that declines were relatively muted. It is also a positive for the tech sector to get the Google IPO out of the way.
NASDAQ 1,819.89 -.63%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.05%
Commodity +.82%
Fashion +.76%
Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -1.15%
Disk Drives -1.75%
Airlines -2.81%
Other
Crude Oil 47.68 +.08%
Natural Gas 5.51 +.05%
Gold 409.40 +.02%
Base Metals 111.05 +1.37%
U.S. Dollar 87.79 -.33%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.21% -.59%
VIX 16.96 +4.50%
Put/Call .89 -9.18%
NYSE Arms 1.06 +146.51%
After-hours Movers
ELBO +8.45% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and raising 3Q outlook.
SRNA +7.76% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
ADSK +7.01% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q forecast.
BCSI -11.42% after meeting 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q guidance.
JWN -6.85% after missing 2Q forecast, lowering 3Q outlook, boosting 04 guidance and raising dividend.
MRVL -5.16% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q guidance.
SHRP -5.62% after meeting 2Q estimates, but lowering 3Q guidance.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BSX and SLB. Goldman reiterated Underperform on CIEN.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower today as oil surged and some economic data came in below expectations. After the close, Goldman Sachs plans to build a new $1.8 billion 40-story headquarters in Battery Park City in Manhattan, Bloomberg reported. United Airlines, trying to attract financing to exit bankruptcy, said it probably will terminate and replace all its pension plans, Bloomberg said. Crude oil futures jumped to a record $48.70/bbl. in NY on concern Iraqi exports may drop further because of clashes in southern Iraq, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today as my alternative energy and software longs rose and my healthcare shorts fell. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus the Portfolio is still 125% net long. While market action today was a win for the bears, it is a positive that declines were relatively muted. It is also a positive for the tech sector to get the Google IPO out of the way.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,089.98 -.47%
NASDAQ 1,820.25 -.61%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.24%
Iron/Steel +1.0%
Commodity +.81%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -1.24%
Disk Drives -1.75%
Airlines -2.46%
Other
Crude Oil 47.05 +1.51%
Natural Gas 5.45 +1.26%
Gold 409.00 +.59%
Base Metals 111.05 +1.37%
U.S. Dollar 87.73 -.40%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.21% -.50%
VIX 16.83 +3.76%
Put/Call .81 -17.35%
NYSE Arms .93 +116.28%
Market Movers
SNPS -29.7% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
PETM -5.6% after missing 2Q revenue estimates and reiterating 3Q guidance.
MYL +10.5% after saying billionaire financier Carl Icahn got U.S. FTC permission to buy as much as 12% of the company's shares.
CAI +13.4% after beating 4Q estimates, raising 1Q guidance and saying it has "no deep concern" about the possible findings of a forthcoming Army report probing prisoner abuse in Iraq.
TZOO +10.9% after moving from the Nasdaq SmallCap market to the Nasdaq National market.
PETC +8.7% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q outlook.
CLE +9.2% after beating 2Q forecast and raising 3Q estimates.
NAV -4.9% after beating 3Q forecast and maintaining forward guidance.
DV -11.7% after missing 4Q estimates.
AMED -8.4% after announcing a 2M share secondary offering.
HRL -9.1% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 331K versus estimates of 335K and 334K the prior week.
Continuing Claims were 2904K versus estimates of 2874K and 2888K prior.
Leading Indicators fell .3% in July versus estimates of a .1% decline and a .1% fall in June.
Philly Fed fell to 28.5 in August versus estimates of 30.0 and a reading of 36.1 in July.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MDT, NAV, WMT, IBM, PETC and IBM. Goldman reiterated Underperform on FRX. Goldman reiterated Underperform on newspaper stocks. TRMK rated Overweight at JP Morgan. WTNY rated Underweight at JP Morgan. TELK rated Overweight at JP Morgan. CELG rated Overweight at JP Morgan. TLB cut to Underweight at Prudential, target $25. NPSP rated Underweight at JP Morgan. Merrill Lynch rated MON Focus 1 stock of the week.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day on rising energy prices and weakness in the healthcare sector. More than 400,000 Florida residents remained without electricity five days after Hurricane Charley passed through and utility companies say downed lines are the biggest hurdle to restoring power, the New York Times reported. Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil supplier, probably will propose that OPEC raise it price target to a range of $28-$38/bbl., El Nacional reported. Amazon.com plans to buy Joyo.com, China's largest online retailer, Reuters reported. A man who died Monday at an Anderson County, South Carolina, jail after being stunned by a Taser gun already had poor health, the AP reported. China may bid for OAO Yukos Oil's biggest production unit if Russia sells the subsidiary to collect back taxes, Interfax said. Limited Brands said second-quarter profit rose 45%, helped by new products at its Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works chains, Bloomberg said. Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi issued a "final call" to Shiite Muslim cleric al-Sadr to disarm his militia and end a two-week uprising in Najaf and other southern cities that the government says has killed hundreds of people, Bloomberg said. Women who eat more fruits, vegetables and protein-rich foods before becoming pregnant may reduce their child's risk of developing leukemia, according to a study published in the journal Cancer, Bloomberg reported. The number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims unexpectedly fell for the third straight week as more companies retained workers, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day as my alternative energy, software and homebuilding longs are rising and my healthcare shorts are falling. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. While the major indices are lower, a number of market leading stocks are rising and the advance/decline line isn't that bad. I expect U.S. stocks to remain near currrent levels into the close.
NASDAQ 1,820.25 -.61%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.24%
Iron/Steel +1.0%
Commodity +.81%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -1.24%
Disk Drives -1.75%
Airlines -2.46%
Other
Crude Oil 47.05 +1.51%
Natural Gas 5.45 +1.26%
Gold 409.00 +.59%
Base Metals 111.05 +1.37%
U.S. Dollar 87.73 -.40%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.21% -.50%
VIX 16.83 +3.76%
Put/Call .81 -17.35%
NYSE Arms .93 +116.28%
Market Movers
SNPS -29.7% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
PETM -5.6% after missing 2Q revenue estimates and reiterating 3Q guidance.
MYL +10.5% after saying billionaire financier Carl Icahn got U.S. FTC permission to buy as much as 12% of the company's shares.
CAI +13.4% after beating 4Q estimates, raising 1Q guidance and saying it has "no deep concern" about the possible findings of a forthcoming Army report probing prisoner abuse in Iraq.
TZOO +10.9% after moving from the Nasdaq SmallCap market to the Nasdaq National market.
PETC +8.7% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q outlook.
CLE +9.2% after beating 2Q forecast and raising 3Q estimates.
NAV -4.9% after beating 3Q forecast and maintaining forward guidance.
DV -11.7% after missing 4Q estimates.
AMED -8.4% after announcing a 2M share secondary offering.
HRL -9.1% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 331K versus estimates of 335K and 334K the prior week.
Continuing Claims were 2904K versus estimates of 2874K and 2888K prior.
Leading Indicators fell .3% in July versus estimates of a .1% decline and a .1% fall in June.
Philly Fed fell to 28.5 in August versus estimates of 30.0 and a reading of 36.1 in July.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MDT, NAV, WMT, IBM, PETC and IBM. Goldman reiterated Underperform on FRX. Goldman reiterated Underperform on newspaper stocks. TRMK rated Overweight at JP Morgan. WTNY rated Underweight at JP Morgan. TELK rated Overweight at JP Morgan. CELG rated Overweight at JP Morgan. TLB cut to Underweight at Prudential, target $25. NPSP rated Underweight at JP Morgan. Merrill Lynch rated MON Focus 1 stock of the week.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day on rising energy prices and weakness in the healthcare sector. More than 400,000 Florida residents remained without electricity five days after Hurricane Charley passed through and utility companies say downed lines are the biggest hurdle to restoring power, the New York Times reported. Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil supplier, probably will propose that OPEC raise it price target to a range of $28-$38/bbl., El Nacional reported. Amazon.com plans to buy Joyo.com, China's largest online retailer, Reuters reported. A man who died Monday at an Anderson County, South Carolina, jail after being stunned by a Taser gun already had poor health, the AP reported. China may bid for OAO Yukos Oil's biggest production unit if Russia sells the subsidiary to collect back taxes, Interfax said. Limited Brands said second-quarter profit rose 45%, helped by new products at its Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works chains, Bloomberg said. Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi issued a "final call" to Shiite Muslim cleric al-Sadr to disarm his militia and end a two-week uprising in Najaf and other southern cities that the government says has killed hundreds of people, Bloomberg said. Women who eat more fruits, vegetables and protein-rich foods before becoming pregnant may reduce their child's risk of developing leukemia, according to a study published in the journal Cancer, Bloomberg reported. The number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims unexpectedly fell for the third straight week as more companies retained workers, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day as my alternative energy, software and homebuilding longs are rising and my healthcare shorts are falling. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. While the major indices are lower, a number of market leading stocks are rising and the advance/decline line isn't that bad. I expect U.S. stocks to remain near currrent levels into the close.
Wednesday, August 18, 2004
Wednesday Close
S&P 500 1,095.17 +1.24%
NASDAQ 1,831.37 +2.01%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +5.78%
Airlines +5.18%
Biotech +3.52%
Lagging Sectors
Broadcasting +.50%
Foods +.41%
Fashion -.58%
Other
Crude Oil 46.40 +.11%
Natural Gas 5.38 -.04%
Gold 406.60 unch.
Base Metals 109.55 -1.14%
U.S. Dollar 88.08 +.02%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.23% +.97%
VIX 16.23 -4.64%
Put/Call .98 +5.38%
NYSE Arms .43 -50.57%
After-hours Movers
HOTT +11.87% after beating 2Q estimates and announcing additional 2M share buyback.
CAI +7.24% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q guidance.
PETC +5.15% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q forecast.
SNPS -30.2% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook substantially.
Recommendations
Goldman reiterated Outperform on MET and CZN.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today, boosted by optimism over improvements in Iraq and a rebounding technology sector. After the close, Iran's defense minister warned the U.S. and Israel against any pre-emptive attack on its nuclear facilities, saying his country could similarly target American forces in Iraq, Agence-France Presse reported. Google is poised to begin selling shares to bidders in the company's auction-style IPO after receiving approval from U.S. securities regulators, Bloomberg said. Medtronic, the world's largest maker of spinal implants, said first-quarter profit rose 18% as demand increased fro devices used in back surgery, Bloomberg said. Synopsys said third-quarter profit fell to $41.8 million as semiconductor companies curtailed purchase, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today as my homebuilding, semi and RFID-related longs rose more than my steel and Chinese ADR shorts. I added a few more longs in various sectors in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. One of my new longs is YHOO and I am using a $27.70 stop-loss on the position. The technicals and tone of the market continue to improve. While I continue to expect significant weakness to reappear in Sept., it is very possible the lows for the year are in place.
NASDAQ 1,831.37 +2.01%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +5.78%
Airlines +5.18%
Biotech +3.52%
Lagging Sectors
Broadcasting +.50%
Foods +.41%
Fashion -.58%
Other
Crude Oil 46.40 +.11%
Natural Gas 5.38 -.04%
Gold 406.60 unch.
Base Metals 109.55 -1.14%
U.S. Dollar 88.08 +.02%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.23% +.97%
VIX 16.23 -4.64%
Put/Call .98 +5.38%
NYSE Arms .43 -50.57%
After-hours Movers
HOTT +11.87% after beating 2Q estimates and announcing additional 2M share buyback.
CAI +7.24% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q guidance.
PETC +5.15% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q forecast.
SNPS -30.2% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook substantially.
Recommendations
Goldman reiterated Outperform on MET and CZN.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today, boosted by optimism over improvements in Iraq and a rebounding technology sector. After the close, Iran's defense minister warned the U.S. and Israel against any pre-emptive attack on its nuclear facilities, saying his country could similarly target American forces in Iraq, Agence-France Presse reported. Google is poised to begin selling shares to bidders in the company's auction-style IPO after receiving approval from U.S. securities regulators, Bloomberg said. Medtronic, the world's largest maker of spinal implants, said first-quarter profit rose 18% as demand increased fro devices used in back surgery, Bloomberg said. Synopsys said third-quarter profit fell to $41.8 million as semiconductor companies curtailed purchase, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today as my homebuilding, semi and RFID-related longs rose more than my steel and Chinese ADR shorts. I added a few more longs in various sectors in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. One of my new longs is YHOO and I am using a $27.70 stop-loss on the position. The technicals and tone of the market continue to improve. While I continue to expect significant weakness to reappear in Sept., it is very possible the lows for the year are in place.
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