Mid-day Report

Indices
S&P 500 1,208.48 -.13%
Dow 10,810.57 -.02%
NASDAQ 2,054.59 -.62%
Russell 2000 636.38 -.15%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,906.11 -.15%
S&P Barra Growth 582.20 -.14%
S&P Barra Value 621.89 -.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 586.68 -.29%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 770.08 -.21%
Morgan Stanley Technology 471.52 -.98%
Transports 3,752.18 -.01%
Utilities 353.53 +.02%
Put/Call .79 -1.25%
NYSE Arms 1.04 +14.29%
Volatility(VIX) 12.96 +3.68%
ISE Sentiment 174.00 +13.73%
US Dollar 83.29 +.25%
CRB 307.64 +.32%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.45 +2.64%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.15 +2.57%
Natural Gas 6.71 -.03%
Heating Oil 150.50 -.17%
Gold 431.00 -.65%
Base Metals 128.46 +1.43%
Copper 147.55 -.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +.23%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.51%
Energy +1.87%
Airlines +1.40%

Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -1.07%
Wireless -1.14%
Semis -1.45%

Market Movers
AAPL -5.6% on profit-taking and worries over competition to iTunes.
CVC -4.59% after Bear Stearns downgrade to Underperform and announcing SEC inquiry into share trading.
TASR +7.56% after saying that US District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan dropped a lawsuit alleging harm from their stun gun.
DSTI +16.64% after saying it introduced a foil with solar cells for use on high altitude airships, winged unmanned aerial vehicles and satellites.
ESRX +7.09% after meeting 4Q estimates and raising 1Q outlook.
UCL +10.3% after a Wall Street Journal report that ChevronTexaco is interested in buying the company.
LDG +9.6% after beating 4Q estimates and raising 1Q outlook.
BEBE +8.43% after beating February same-store-sales substantially.
TECH +7.0% after announcing 2.9M share buyback and Robert Baird upgrade to Outperform.
CVS +5.2% after beating February same-store-sales estimate and raising 1Q outlook.
KSS +4.62% after beating February same-store-sales estimates.
ELN -11.0% after a Merrill Lynch analyst cut future sales estimates and said Tysabri may be limited to patients who have failed on other MS treatments as a safety precaution if it returns to market.
NKTR -8.82% after an SG Cowen analyst said it may have trouble getting FDA approval for Exubera.
EAGL -11.2% after missing 4Q estimates and widening 05 guidance.
SPW -5.6% after missing 4Q estimates.
LSCP -8.06% after beating 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
LRCX -5.7% on worries over DRAM exposure.

Market Internals
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon

Economic Data
- Final 4Q Non-farm Productivity rose 2.1% versus estimates of a 1.5% increase and prior estimates of a .8% gain.
- Final 4Q Unit Labor Costs rose 1.3% versus estimates of a 1.8% gain and a prior estimate of a 2.3% rise.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 310K versus estimates of 310K and 311K the prior week.
-Continuing Claims rose to 2672K versus estimates of 2658K and 2660K prior.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for February fell to 59.8 versus estimates of 60.0 and a reading of 59.2 in January.

Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on TPX, COH, UTX, SYK, COH, NKE, LIZ, PMMAY and INTC. Raised TAP to Outperform.
- Smith Barney: Upgraded CMS to Buy, target $14.25. Reiterated Buy on APD, target $69. Reiterated Buy on CMS, target $14.25. Reiterated Buy on INTC, target $26.50. Reiterated Buy on FCS, target $19. Reiterated Buy on MXIM, target $52. Reiterated Buy on NMG/A, target $92.
- JP Morgan: Rated NAT Underweight.
- Oppenheimer: Raised AA and AL to Sector Outperform.
- Bear Stearns: Downgraded CVC to Underperform.
- Raymond James: Raised THE to Strong Buy, target $42.

Mid-day News
US stocks are modestly lower mid-day on continuing worries over high energy prices. A weakness in the US dollar is more likely to cause economic growth than a financial crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a Fed study. President Karzai appointed Afghanistan’s first female provincial governor, in a country where the former regime barred women form taking jobs outside their homes, AFP reported. Liberty Media Chairman Malone’s acquisition of $900 million in shares in Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. may prompt the two companies to set up a separate media entity from the assets of each company, the Wall Street Journal reported. Small oil companies are drilling within the Houston city limits as crude oil prices have remained high, the NY Times reported. US hedge fund managers have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on art works in the past few years, the NY Times reported. Oil prices are unlikely to jump to $80/bbl. any time soon unless a disruption cuts as much as 2 million barrels a day from world supply, the acting secretary general of OPEC said, Al-Qabas reported. GE’s NBC Universal may take over Microsoft’s stake in MSNBC, the NY Post reported. The US Financial Accounting Standards Board softened a proposal that would force companies to make changes in accounting principles retroactively, the Wall Street Journal said. Stock Car racing is joining with hip-hop and rap artists to attract more minority fans to its racetracks, the Wall Street Journal reported. Ibrahim Jafari of the United Iraqi Alliance, a leading Shiite Muslim politician, is seeking Kurdish support to become prime minister of Iraq, the Washington Post reported. Russian, Saudi Arabia and Germany joined the US and France in calling for Syria to remove its military forces from neighboring Lebanon, Reuters reported. US states such as Wisconsin and Arizona may impose more limits on police use of stun guns, which temporarily immobilize suspects by shocking them with electrical charges, USA Today reported. Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the world’s fourth-riches man, said he has no plans to sell any of his stake in Hewlett-Packard and liked the computer maker’s prospects, CNBC reported. FedEx said it won tentative approval from the US to add three weekly flights to China, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart Stores said February sales at US stores open at least a year rose 4.1%, the most in nine months, as shoppers began spending income tax refunds, Bloomberg said. The number of American filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance fell for the fourth time in five weeks, suggesting improvement in the labor market, Bloomberg reported. The productivity of US workers grew at a 2.1% rate from October through December, faster than previously estimated, and unit labor costs slowed, Bloomberg said. Bank of America agreed to pay $460.5 million to settle claims it helped issue $15.4 billion in WorldCom bonds which it should have know better, Bloomberg said. The US tax code is “overly complicated” and needs to be recast with a focus on broadening the revenue base and lowering rates, Fed Chairman Greenspan told a presidential tax panel. The US dollar traded near the strongest in 10 days against the euro after a report showed services industries in the US expanded at a faster pace and the European Central Bank cut its growth forecast, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil is surging above $55/bbl. in NY, less than a $1 short of a record on strong US economic data, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio higher mid-day on gains in my alternative energy, retail and steel longs. I have not traded today, thus the Portfolio’s market exposure remains 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is decent. Losses are mainly confined to the technology sector. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. The downward revision to 4Q unit labor costs is a big positive as over two-thirds of inflation is comprised of this measure. Considering oil is trading near highs, the market’s performance is very good today and it appears as though the Bears are dropping the ball once again. I expect US stocks to trade higher from current levels into the close as optimism over US economic growth, short covering and stabilizing long-term interest rates offsets worries over stubbornly high energy prices.

Thursday Watch

Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher, led by energy-related stocks in the region. China's central bank plans to start a nationwide system that collects and supplies credit information on individuals, as part of efforts to improve risk management in the nation's financial industry, China Business News reported. Ocean carriers expect more congestion and delays at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, this year, the Financial Times reported. Makers of flat-panel displays used in televisions and computers may face losses until mid-2006 on excess capacity, the Commercial Times reported. Lebanon's opposition lawmakers called for a withdrawal of Syrian forces before they will hold talks with President Emile Lahoud on forming a new government, Fox News reported. China may boost military spending by 12.6% this year as the nation's top lawmakers prepare to legitimize the use of force to reunify with Taiwan, AFP reported. Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm is pushing to allow Toyota to expand a technical center to create jobs and help the state become less reliant on domestic automakers, the NY Times said. Fannie Mae, the biggest buyer of US mortgages, may have to recognize as much as $2.8 billion in extra losses on its financial derivatives portfolio because of new accounting problems cited by its regulator, the Wall Street Journal reported. Enron Corp. has tentatively agreed to settle lawsuits over employee pension-fund claims for $356.2 million in bankruptcy court, Bloomberg reported. South Korean business confidence had its biggest jump in more than a decade last month, surging to a three-year high amid signs consumer spending is picking up, Bloomberg said. Shares of Deutsche Telekom AG, Europe's largest telephone company, may gain after its fourth quarter profit beat analysts' estimates, helped by asset sales and higher revenue from Internet and mobile-phone services, Bloomberg reported. JFE Holdings and Nippon Steel, Japan's two biggest steelmakers, raised full-year profit forecasts after they increased prices amid a surge in demand form China for steel used to make cars, trucks and household appliances, Bloomberg reported.

Late Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Said on March 8, voters in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, Florida will decide whether their respective counties will allow slot machines at racetracks and Jai Alai facilities. A passing vote would likely boost earning at IGT(+.06), AGI(+.03) and WMS(+.18). Reiterated Outperform on DNA.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.07%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
DLM/.24
CMOS/-.16
KOSP/1.03
ONXX/-.43
SHFL/.15
SONS/.02
SPW/.83
TTWO/1.09
WWCA/.33
WTW/.32

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
- Final 4Q Non-farm Productivity is estimated to rise 1.5% versus a prior estimate of a .8% gain.
- Final 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise 1.8% versus a prior estimate of a 2.3% increase.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 310K versus 312K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2658K versus 2650K prior.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for February is estimated to rise to 60.0 versus a reading of 59.2 in January.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US equities to open mixed-to-weaker and then head higher later in the day on short-covering ahead of Friday's employment report. Considering the Dow and S&P 500 are very near cycle highs, skepticism is unusually elevated in a number of indicators I follow. This makes me more confident in a near-term breakout to the upside. However, an unexpected upward revision to 4Q unit labor costs would likely send long-term term rates higher and stocks lower tomorrow. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.

Wednesday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,210.08 -.03%
Dow 10,811.97 -.17%
NASDAQ 2,067.50 -.18%
Russell 2000 637.33 -.19%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,924.59 -.03%
S&P Barra Growth 583.02 +.06%
S&P Barra Value 622.60 -.12%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 588.34 -.22%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 771.70 -.39%
Morgan Stanley Technology 476.22 -.29%
Transports 3,752.41 -.18%
Utilities 353.45 +.10%
Put/Call .80 -10.11%
NYSE Arms .91 +3.41%
Volatility(VIX) 12.50 +3.82%
ISE Sentiment 153.00 +9.29%
US Dollar 83.08 +.36%
CRB 306.65 +.46%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.03 -.04%
Unleaded Gasoline 148.00 -.26%
Natural Gas 6.73 +.27%
Heating Oil 150.00 -.56%
Gold 434.20 +.09%
Base Metals 126.65 -1.05%
Copper 147.70 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +.27%

Leading Sectors
Energy +1.35%
Oil Service +1.19%
Broadcasting +.60%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -1.08%
Semis -1.57%
Airlines -2.63%

After-hours Movers
SBUX +3.20% after beating same-store-sales estimates for February.
PETM -7.2% after missing 4Q revenue estimates, restating prior results and maintaining 05 outlook.
FHRX -9.3% after missing 4Q revenue estimates and lowering 1Q outlook.

Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote

Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on AMLN and DNA.
- Banc of America: Reiterated Buy on DHI, target $53.
- Prudential: Reiterated Overweight on FD, target $75.

After-hours News
US stocks finished modestly lower today on concerns over higher energy prices and Social Security. After the close, crude oil rose above $53/bbl. for the first time in four months and gasoline surged to an all-time high on concern that oil production and refining capacity are not keeping up with demand, Bloomberg reported. Boone Pickens, chairman of BP Capital LLC, opened a second partnership for investing in energy stocks after reaching a cutoff of $500 million in assets at his first hedge fund, Bloomberg said. The US dollar rose against the euro as Fed Chairman Greenspan said the US economy is expanding at a “reasonably good pace,” while a European Union report showed growth in the region is stagnate, Bloomberg reported. Neiman Marcus Group said second quarter profit surged as customers bought more designer dresses and handbags, Bloomberg reported. Iran’s military has new anti-ship cruise missiles that give it the capability to threaten the flow of oil in the Persian Gulf, Bloomberg reported. Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia’s second-biggest shareholder, VA Partners LLC, sold 915,000 shares of the media and houseware company’s stock at prices between $32.66-$35.58/share, Bloomberg said. MCI began discussing a combination with Qwest Communications, bowing to pressure from shareholders who oppose a lower bid from Verizon Communications, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today as losses in my semi and alternative energy longs more than offset gains in my software and telecom equipment longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market deteriorated into the afternoon as the advance/decline line finished the day lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was decent. Measures of investor anxiety remained mixed into the close. Semis underperformed and energy-related stocks outperformed throughout the day. I still expect the DJIA and S&P 500 to make new cycle highs over the next few days. I also expect the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq to break to the upside from their recent trading ranges. The likely catalysts will be provided by a drop in long-term interest rates after Friday’s employment report, strong earnings reports, short-covering and the stabilization of energy prices. A substantial spike in long-term interest rates or oil above $55/bbl. poses the greatest near-term risk to my bullish view.

Mid-day Report

Detailed Market Summary
Market Snapshot

Sector Performance

Market Movers

NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations

Mid-day News

BOTTOM LINE: Due to a scheduling conflict, I am posting an abbreviated version of the Mid-day Report. The Wednesday Close will be posted at its regular time around 7pm est. The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my telecom equipment, retail and software longs. I exited a biotechnology long this morning and added JNPR long, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I am using a $21 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is modestly positive today as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, volume is solid and most sectors are higher. Rising energy prices are likely muting an otherwise more positive day. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower, which is a negative. I expect the DJIA and S&P 500 to break to new cycle highs within the next 2 days. I will likely increase market exposure on a convincing break of these levels. A failure to do so would lead me to cut exposure.

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night News
Asian indices are mixed as gains in auto stocks in the region are being offset by weakness in commodity-related shares. Diana Shipping, a Greek owner of ships that carry coal, grain and other so-called dry bulk commodities, plans to raise $242 million selling shares in New York, Lloyd's List reported. Advanced Micro Devices will today begin testing and packaging microprocessors at its plant in the eastern Chinese city of Suzhou to compete with Intel Corp., Shanghai Daily said. Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian told the European Union its plans to lift an arms embargo on China will threaten the balance of military power in east Asia, AFP reported. China will cut by 80% the number of companies licensed to import iron ore under a new permitting system, China Business News said. Asylum applications to industrialized countries fell in 2004 for the third consecutive year to their lowest level for 16 years, the Financial Times reported. Australia's economy barely grew in the fourth quarter as home building slumped, retail sales fell and companies reduced their stockpiles, Bloomberg reported. Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor and other Asian automakers extended US market-share gains for a sixth straight month in February as their new light-truck models helped draw more buyers, Bloomberg said. China's four biggest shipping lines are buying or building oil tankers with the combined capacity to carry more than half the global increase in oil production this year, Bloomberg reported. The US dollar is rising for a third day against the euro in Asia on expectations Fed Chairman Greenspan will ease concerns over the US current account deficit when he testifies before Congress today, Bloomberg reported.

Late Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on CAT and raised EPS estimates. Reiterated Outperform on HOT and FS. Reiterated Underperform on PSS and HMT.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.18%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.39%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AEOS/1.39
AMLN/-.44
AZO/1.19
CEC/.45
CHS/.20
COO/.55
COST/.55
EV/.29
ESRX/1.06
HOV/1.20
LIZ/.74
MIK/.78
NMG/A/1.43
PETM/.44
PDE/.03
TTN/.21

Splits
EOG 2-for-1
RECN 2-for-1

Economic Data
None of note.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US equities to open mixed ahead of multiple Fed speeches later in the day and significant economic reports on Thur. and Fri. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.

Tuesday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,210.41 +.57%
Dow 10,830.00 +.59%
NASDAQ 2,071.25 +.95%
Russell 2000 638.53 +.70%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,927.83 +.57%
S&P Barra Growth 582.66 +.46%
S&P Barra Value 623.32 +.67%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 589.65 +.75%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 774.73 +.37%
Morgan Stanley Technology 477.60 +.96%
Transports 3,759.30 +.88%
Utilities 353.08 +.05%
Put/Call .89 +30.88%
NYSE Arms .88 -38.89%
Volatility(VIX) 12.04 -.33%
ISE Sentiment 140.00 -30.69%
US Dollar 82.78 +.33%
CRB 305.26 +.09%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.67 -.02%
Unleaded Gasoline 140.30 +.02%
Natural Gas 6.68 unch.
Heating Oil 146.45 -.05%
Gold 433.40 -.12%
Base Metals 128.00 -.23%
Copper 146.45 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.36% -.27%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +4.79%
Retail +2.59%
Semis +2.25%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -2.12%
Iron/Steel -2.17%
Oil Service -2.52%

After-hours Movers
PSUN +3.55% after beating 4Q estimates and reporting strong February same-store-sales.
TIBX -13.82% after lowering 1Q estimates substantially.
LEA -13.08% after cutting 1Q forecast substantially.
VRTY -10.01% after cutting 3Q estimates substantially.
KTO -8.7% after beating 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
NKTR -5.82% after beating 4Q estimates and restating prior results.

Detailed Market Summary
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
NASDAQ 100 After-hours Indicator
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote

Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on XOM, target $90. Reiterated Underperform on MMC.
- Prudential: Raised CTSH to Overweight, target $54. Reiterated Buy on DHI, target $53.
- Banc of America: Reiterated Buy on HOV, target $64.
- Legg Mason: Reiterated Buy on PGNX, target $31.
- Lehman Brothers: Upgraded UNFI to Overweight. Reiterated Buy on SBL, target $21. Reiterated Buy on MOVI, target $26.
- UBS: Reiterated Buy on VSEA, target $48.
- Deutsche Bank: Reiterated Buy on DD, target $62.
- Smith Barney: Reiterated Buy on RCI, target $48.
- Merrill Lynch: Reiterated Buy on BXP, target $67.
- CSFB: Reiterated Outperform on SHS, target $24.

After-hours News
US stocks finished higher today on optimism over US economic growth and stabilizing long-term interest rates. After the close, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Fiorina is among candidates to become the next president of the World Bank, the NY Times reported. Ahmed Omar Ali, a Virginia man accused of planning the assassination of President Bush, talked about the plans after joining al-Qaeda while studying in Saudi Arabia, the FBI said. Morgan Stanley’s real estate unit may invest $4 billion in Europe this year, part of it in the German property market, the Financial Times said. Iraq’s former deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz was interrogated for eight hours yesterday by representatives of a UN panel probing the UN/Iraq oil-for-food scandal, AFP reported. Qwest Communications was given “substantial access” to MCI financial information and representatives of the two companies discussed merger proposals in 25 meetings, Bloomberg reported. General Electric CEO Immelt expects faster earnings growth from industrial businesses than financial areas for the first time in two decades, Bloomberg reported. A US judge dismissed Rambus’ patent infringement lawsuit against German chipmaker Infineon Technologies AG, Bloomberg reported. Bank of America said the SEC is conducting a formal investigation into trading and research related activities by its Banc of America Securities unit between 1999 and 2001, Bloomberg said. US bankruptcy filings dropped in 2004 for the first time in four years, Bloomberg reported. Canadian consumer interest in satellite radio continues to grow, with almost four million people expressing interest in the service within the next year, according to Decima Research. China’s inflation rate will probably remain within 4% this year because of stable grain prices, Shanghai Securities News reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my semi, alternative energy and biotechnology longs. I added a number of new longs from various sectors in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is ESLR and I am using a $6.50 stop-loss on this new position. The tone of the market improved into the afternoon as the advance/decline line finished near its highs for the day, almost every non-commodity-related sector gained and volume was decent. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed on the day, while consumer-oriented and technology shares outperformed. My short-term trading indicators have improved and I expect the DJIA and S&P 500 to make new cycle highs within days, barring a substantial rise in long-term interest rates or energy prices. I also expect the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq to break to the upside from their recent trading ranges.