Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Wednesday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,188.07 -.81%
Dow 10,633.07 -1.04%
NASDAQ 2,015.75 -.94%
Russell 2000 622.92 -.62%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,713.37 -.84%
S&P Barra Growth 570.61%
S&P Barra Value 613.20 -.77%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.09 -.75%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 765.80 -1.39%
Morgan Stanley Technology 460.82 -.91%
Transports 3,757.52 -1.54%
Utilities 356.57 -.69%
Put/Call 1.04 +25.30%
NYSE Arms 1.05 -22.98%
Volatility(VIX) 13.49 +2.59%
ISE Sentiment 136.00 -1.45%
US Dollar 81.61 +.01%
CRB 322.42 +.60%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 56.57 +.19%
Unleaded Gasoline 155.00 +.11%
Natural Gas 7.23 +.53%
Heating Oil 159.50 +.23%
Gold 443.90 -.07%
Base Metals 131.48 +.67%
Copper 150.50 -.07%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.50% unch.

Leading Sectors
Wireless +.29%
Energy +.24%
Oil Service +.13%

Lagging Sectors
Defense -1.36%
Papers -1.71%
Iron Steel -1.79%

After-hours Movers
VIA/B +7.4% after Sumner Redstone said he may break up the company because investors aren’t placing a high enough value on the businesses.
NFI +4.2% after management reaffirmed forecast for 05 dividend.
AMLN +16.5% after saying US regulators approved its Symlin diabetes drug.
WWCA -7.7% after disappointing 4Q results.
CNCT -5.80% after announcing that it intends to raise approximately $125M through an offering of convertible senior notes through a Rule 144A offering.

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on AMLN and TAP.

After-hours News
US stocks finished lower today on worries over high energy prices, concerns over General Motors’ difficulties and technical deterioration. After the close, Eastman Kodak will restate results for the past two years because of errors in the accounting of income taxes, pensions and retirement benefits, Bloomberg reported. The US Senate rejected a proposal backed by Democrats and a few Republicans aimed at making it tougher to win congressional approval for new tax cuts, Bloomberg said. JP Morgan agreed to pay $2 billion to settle claims by investors that the lender should have known Worldcom’s books were fraudulent when it helped sell $5 billion in company bonds, Bloomberg reported. The US Senate voted to allow Exxon Mobil Corp. and other companies to tap into an estimated 6.3 billion barrels of oil in a small part of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Bloomberg said. Crude oil surged to an all-time high, as a promise of increased output from OPEC failed to ease concern that demand is rising faster than supply, Bloomberg reported. Harley-Davidson passed GM in stock market value for the first time today after GM forecast its largest quarterly loss since 1992, Bloomberg said. Qwest Communications plans to sweeten its takeover offer for MCI Inc. for a third time to pressure MCI to scrap an agreement to be bought by Verizon Communications, Bloomberg reported. Steven Leuthold, who oversees $1 billion for Leuthold Weeden Capital in Minneapolis, sees a three- or four-year bull market in US metals stocks, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Energy-related longs, Chinese ADR shorts, Networking shorts and Software shorts. I took profits in a few longs and shorts in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net short. The tone of the market weakened further into the afternoon as the advance/decline line finished near its daily lows, almost every sector declined and volume rose. Energy-related stocks outperformed today and cyclical shares underperformed substantially on worries over higher energy prices and slowing global growth. Finally, most measures of investor anxiety rose, which is a positive. Overall, today’s market action was negative, considering good economic reports, recent losses and a fall in interest rates. While an oversold bounce could occur at any time, I continue to expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower until energy and interest rates stabilize. As well, measures of investor anxiety will likely need to rise further before a tradable bottom is in place. Economic reports over the next two days could spur further selling in bonds near-term.

Chart of Interest

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

Mid-day Report

Indices
S&P 500 1,190.43 -.61%
Dow 10,662.19 -.77%
NASDAQ 2,023.16 -.58%
Russell 2000 624.48 -.37%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,738.60 -.62%
S&P Barra Growth 571.70 -.65%
S&P Barra Value 614.13 -.62%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.55 -.69%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 766.89 -1.33%
Morgan Stanley Technology 461.41 -.79%
Transports 3,764.06 -1.37%
Utilities 356.95 -.58%
Put/Call 1.0 +20.48%
NYSE Arms 1.03 -24.26%
Volatility(VIX) 13.60 +3.42%
ISE Sentiment 127.00 -7.97%
US Dollar 81.64 -.58%
CRB 322.65 +.67%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.70 +1.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.80 +1.37%
Natural Gas 7.10 -1.03%
Heating Oil 157.70 +1.61%
Gold 444.10 +.61%
Base Metals 131.48 +.67%
Copper 150.80 +1.17%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.51% +1.17%

Leading Sectors
Wireless +.70%
Energy +.32%
Disk Drives +.32%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.33%
Papers -1.48%
Iron/Steel -1.72%

Market Movers
GM -13.4% after forecasting its largest quarterly loss since 1992 as Toyota Motor takes market share.
RIMM +17.93% after agreeing to pay NTP Inc. $450 million to end a patent dispute and multiple upgrades.
OPNT +23.46% after saying that Cisco Systems will distribute its products worldwide.
CVNS +18.2% after announcing restatement of prior results and beating 4Q estimates.
SNIC +18.82% on JMP Securities upgrade to Strong Buy.
SIGM +16.79% after meeting 4Q estimates and Needham upgrade to Strong Buy.
CIB +13.59% after UBS upgrade to Buy.
NMG/A +10.14% after saying it hired Goldman Sachs as a financial adviser to explore strategic alternatives.
BCR +6.68% after boosting 1Q guidance.
ARTC +12.95% after beating 4Q estimates and First Albany upgrade to Buy.
LFB +11.81% after saying it retained Goldman Sachs to evaluate possible conversion to REIT.
DRL -14.99% on Wachovia downgrade to Underperform.
MSTR -12.97% after saying its auditor is leaving and multiple downgrades.
TELK -8.25% after Lehman Brothers downgrade to Equal Weight.
STLD -6.61% after lowering 1Q guidance.

Mid-day Overview
Market Internals
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Economic Data
- The 4Q Current Account Balance fell to -$187.9B versus estimates of -$183.0B and -$165.9B in 3Q.
- Housing Starts for February rose to 2195K versus estimates of 2067K and an upwardly revised 2132K in January.
- Building Permits for February rose to 2074K versus estimates of 2067K and an upwardly revised 2132K in January.
- Industrial Production for February rose .3% versus estimates of a .4% gain and a .1% increase in January.
- Capacity Utilization for February rose to 79.4% versus estimates of 79.2% and a reading of 79.2% in January

Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on NKE.
- Smith Barney: Reiterated Buy on FHR, target $38. Reiterated Buy on AMAT, target $22. Reiterated Buy on ACE, target $53. Reiterated Buy on ABX, target $30.
- UBS: Raised CIB to Buy, target $16.83.
- Deutsche Bank: Raised CPB to Buy, target $33. Rated CE Buy, target $21.
- Wachovia: Raised DKS to Outperform. Downgraded DRL to Underperform.
- Banc of America: Rated THLD Buy.
- Lehman Brothers: Rated DWA Overweight, target $43.
- CIBC: Rated THLD Sector Outperform, target $11. Rated ICGN Sector Outperform, target $10. Rated FVRL Sector Outperform, target $10.
- Legg Mason: Raised RIMM to Buy, target $87.
- Raymond James: Raised LAD to Strong Buy, target $33.

Mid-day News

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Energy-related longs, Networking shorts and Chinese ADR shorts. I took profits in a few shorts this morning and added some new shorts from various sectors, thus leaving the Portfolio’s market exposure 25% net short. One of my new shorts is ERTS and I am using a $68.5 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is negative today as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is decent. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is negative, considering the rise in bonds and good economic reports. A number of market-leading stocks continue to remain under pressure. A further rise in investor anxiety is needed to put a tradable bottom in place. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close on worries over rising energy prices and technical deterioration. I am still experiencing technical problems with this site. Hopefully the problems will be corrected shortly.

Mid-day Report

Indices
S&P 500 1,190.43 -.61%
Dow 10,662.19 -.77%
NASDAQ 2,023.16 -.58%
Russell 2000 624.48 -.37%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,738.60 -.62%
S&P Barra Growth 571.70 -.65%
S&P Barra Value 614.13 -.62%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.55 -.69%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 766.89 -1.33%
Morgan Stanley Technology 461.41 -.79%
Transports 3,764.06 -1.37%
Utilities 356.95 -.58%
Put/Call 1.0 +20.48%
NYSE Arms 1.03 -24.26%
Volatility(VIX) 13.60 +3.42%
ISE Sentiment 127.00 -7.97%
US Dollar 81.64 -.58%
CRB 322.65 +.67%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.70 +1.18%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.80 +1.37%
Natural Gas 7.10 -1.03%
Heating Oil 157.70 +1.61%
Gold 444.10 +.61%
Base Metals 131.48 +.67%
Copper 150.80 +1.17%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.51% +1.17%

Leading Sectors
Wireless +.70%
Energy +.32%
Disk Drives +.32%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.33%
Papers -1.48%
Iron/Steel -1.72%

Market Movers
GM -13.4% after forecasting its largest quarterly loss since 1992 as Toyota Motor takes market share.
RIMM +17.93% after agreeing to pay NTP Inc. $450 million to end a patent dispute and multiple upgrades.
OPNT +23.46% after saying that Cisco Systems will distribute its products worldwide.
CVNS +18.2% after announcing restatement of prior results and beating 4Q estimates.
SNIC +18.82% on JMP Securities upgrade to Strong Buy.
SIGM +16.79% after meeting 4Q estimates and Needham upgrade to Strong Buy.
CIB +13.59% after UBS upgrade to Buy.
NMG/A +10.14% after saying it hired Goldman Sachs as a financial adviser to explore strategic alternatives.
BCR +6.68% after boosting 1Q guidance.
ARTC +12.95% after beating 4Q estimates and First Albany upgrade to Buy.
LFB +11.81% after saying it retained Goldman Sachs to evaluate possible conversion to REIT.
DRL -14.99% on Wachovia downgrade to Underperform.
MSTR -12.97% after saying its auditor is leaving and multiple downgrades.
TELK -8.25% after Lehman Brothers downgrade to Equal Weight.
STLD -6.61% after lowering 1Q guidance.

Mid-day Overview
Market Internals
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Economic Data
- The 4Q Current Account Balance fell to -$187.9B versus estimates of -$183.0B and -$165.9B in 3Q.
- Housing Starts for February rose to 2195K versus estimates of 2067K and an upwardly revised 2132K in January.
- Building Permits for February rose to 2074K versus estimates of 2067K and an upwardly revised 2132K in January.
- Industrial Production for February rose .3% versus estimates of a .4% gain and a .1% increase in January.
- Capacity Utilization for February rose to 79.4% versus estimates of 79.2% and a reading of 79.2% in January

Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on NKE.
- Smith Barney: Reiterated Buy on FHR, target $38. Reiterated Buy on AMAT, target $22. Reiterated Buy on ACE, target $53. Reiterated Buy on ABX, target $30.
- UBS: Raised CIB to Buy, target $16.83.
- Deutsche Bank: Raised CPB to Buy, target $33. Rated CE Buy, target $21.
- Wachovia: Raised DKS to Outperform. Downgraded DRL to Underperform.
- Banc of America: Rated THLD Buy.
- Lehman Brothers: Rated DWA Overweight, target $43.
- CIBC: Rated THLD Sector Outperform, target $11. Rated ICGN Sector Outperform, target $10. Rated FVRL Sector Outperform, target $10.
- Legg Mason: Raised RIMM to Buy, target $87.
- Raymond James: Raised LAD to Strong Buy, target $33.

Mid-day News

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Energy-related longs, Networking shorts and Chinese ADR shorts. I took profits in a few shorts this morning and added some new shorts from various sectors, thus leaving the Portfolio’s market exposure 25% net short. One of my new shorts is ERTS and I am using a $68.5 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is negative today as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is decent. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is negative, considering the rise in bonds and good economic reports. A number of market-leading stocks continue to remain under pressure. A further rise in investor anxiety is needed to put a tradable bottom in place. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close on worries over rising energy prices and technical deterioration. I am still experiencing technical problems with this site. Hopefully the problems will be corrected shortly.

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly higher as losses in China are being offset by gains in India and Australia. Tom Online Inc., an Internet company controlled by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, said it wants to buy or merge with rivals to compete with larger Chinese-language search engines such as Sohu.com Inc., the Financial Times reported. European Aeronautic, Defense & Space Co., Europe's largest aerospace company, plans to cooperate with Northrop Grumman Corp. to build and promote Eurohawk, an unmanned surveillance airplane, Financial Times Deutschland said. Starbucks Corp. plans to open four stores in Indonesia this year to tap growing demand for coffee, Bisnis Indonesia reported. Toys "R" Us Inc., the No. 2 US toy seller, has received offers for over $5.5 billion for the company, including its Babies R Us unit, from Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts & Co. and Cerberus Capital Management LP, the Financial Times said. Citigroup and six other overseas banks may be allowed to trade eight foreign currency pairs in China starting from May, China Business News said. No signs of anthrax were found in Pentagon mail facilities in follow-up tests conducted today, a Defense Department official said. Iraq's dominant Shiite political group overcame differences with the Kurds about the extent of autonomy in the north as the National Assembly prepared to meet for the first time, Bloomberg reported. Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said today China's anti-secession law will have a "severe negative impact" on cross-Strait relations, Bloomberg reported. Japan's ban on US beef imports because of disease concerns may result in the US Senate calling for trade sanctions against the country, the Daily Yomiuri reported.

Late Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on AET, WYNN and ACN.

Night Trading
- Asian Indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
- S&P 500 indicated +.11%.
- NASDAQ 100 indicated +.10%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
KDE/.47
ALO/.50
BSC/2.34
MLHR/.21
HOTT/.38
KG/.24
PFGC/.32
ROST/.34
TEX/.45
VECO/.06
WOR/.35
WWCA/.33

Splits
XTO 4-for-3
FPL 2-for-1

Economic Data
- The 4Q Current Account Balance is estimated to fall to -$183.0B versus -$164.7B in 3Q.
- Housing Starts for February are estimated to fall to 2040K versus 2159K in January.
- Building Permits for February are estimated to fall to 2067K versus 2105K in January.
- Industrial Production for February is estimated to rise .4% versus unchanged in January.
- Capacity Utilization for February is estimated to rise to 79.2% versus a reading of 79.0% in January.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US equities to open modestly higher in the morning on a bounce after today's losses and lower energy prices. However, stocks may fall modestly later in the day on another rise in oil and interest rates. The Portfolio is 25% net short heading into tomorrow. I have recently been having some technical difficulties publishing this blog. I am working on the issue with Blogger, the host of this site. These issues also may be causing this page to load slowly. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Tuesday, March 15, 2005

Tuesday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,197.75 -.75%
Dow 10,745.10 -.55%
NASDAQ 2,034.98 -.78%
Russell 2000 626.82 -.55%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,812.06 -.69%
S&P Barra Growth 575.46 -.76%
S&P Barra Value 617.98 -.75%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.48 -.89%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 776.56 -.41%
Morgan Stanley Technology 465.04 -1.13%
Transports 3,816.43 -.99%
Utilities 359.04 -.49%
Put/Call .83 -17.82%
NYSE Arms 1.36 +183.33%
Volatility(VIX) 13.15 +6.13%
ISE Sentiment 138.00 -2.82%
US Dollar 82.12 +.18%
CRB 320.50 +1.03%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.86 -.35%
Unleaded Gasoline 150.50 -.15%
Natural Gas 7.15 -.40%
Heating Oil 154.70 -.32%
Gold 441.30 -.02%
Base Metals 130.61 +.68%
Copper 148.70 -.23%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.54% +.81%

Leading Sectors
Gaming +3.21%
Iron/Steel +.57%
HMOs +.38%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -2.12%
Biotech -2.17%
Airlines -2.53%

After-hours Movers
OPNT +15.22% after announcing a multi-year worldwide distribution agreement with Cisco Systems.
TIVO -4.48% on profit-taking after today’s substantial rise on Comcast deal.

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- Goldman Sachs: Reiterated Outperform on AMGN, STN, GCI, PFE and ADP. Reiterated Underperform on FHN.

After-hours News
US stocks finished lower today on worries over domestic terrorism, rising interest rates and high energy prices. After the close, Quanta Computer, the word’s biggest maker of notebook computers, plans to start producing auto electronics products to diversify it range, the Commercial Times reported. The dollar advanced to the highest in a week against the euro after a government report showed demand among international investors for US assets rose in January to the most in almost two years, Bloomberg reported. OPEC is close to an agreement to increase output quotas for the fourth time in less than a year, Bloomberg said. Blockbuster’s hostile $833 million bid to purchase video-rental rival Hollywood Entertainment is opposed by the staff of the FTC, Bloomberg reported. Harvard University’s largest faculty group approved a no-confidence motion against President Lawrence Summers following his comments that women may lack the aptitude to excel in science and engineering, Bloomberg reported. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid threatened to bring the Senate to a halt if Republicans try to prevent the minority party from blocking President Bush’s judicial nominees, Bloomberg said. The EPA set the first limits on mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants to reduce brain damage in children who eat fish contaminated with the poison, Bloomberg reported. A US Army lab is conducting tests today to determine whether live anthrax is in samples from Pentagon mail centers, after four postal units were closed because of concerns about a possible bioterrorist attack, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Energy-related and Biotech longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 25% net short. The tone of the weakened further into the afternoon as the advance/decline line finished at its daily lows, most sectors declined and volume rose. The Gaming sector outperformed substantially, spurred by gains in STN and BYD. The Semis underperformed throughout the day and are trading close to support. I would become more concerned about the intermediate-term direction of technology shares if the SOX clearly broke down below 418. Overall, today’s market action was negative, considering good economic reports and recent losses. I continue to expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-weaker until energy prices and long-term interest rates stabilize.