Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Biotech -5.71% 2) Social Media -4.02% 3) Alt Energy -3.33%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- HCLP, BBBY, TS, APAM, PSMT, CTRX, CBSH, FDO, TM, COG, APOG, ALG, EBAY, HQH, CTCT, POOL, HIBB, FMBI, TQQQ, HMC, VISN, IBB, WUBA, N, CRS, NMBL, MNST, GILD, CTRX, FEYE, NOW and IMPV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) XBI 2) BBBY 3) ADM 4) EWY 5) WDAY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) CVX 2) BBBY 3) GS 4) PCLN 5) COG
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Tobacco +.19% 2) Utilities +.09% 3) Telecom +.07%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) KOG 2) HST 3) SE 4) RAD 5) BBBY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) COST 2) RAD 3) ADP 4) LNKD 5) NKE
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine’s Rust Belt Fears Ruin as Putin Threatens to Choke Trade. For Pavel Cesnek, the future of his
sprawling locomotive maker in eastern Ukraine lies in the
balance and its fate will be sealed across the Russian border. The head of Luganskteplovoz in the city of Luhansk rules
over a communist-era factory and workforce of 6,500 that builds
trains primarily for state-run OAO Russian Railways. Like many
local businessmen, he fears the pro-European government in Kiev
will antagonize the Kremlin into unleashing trade restrictions
that could wipe out industry across Ukraine’s rust belt. “Trade ties with Russia are an existential question -- to
be or not to be,” said the 40-year-old Czech. “Without Russia,
there’d be a total collapse for me, my workers and my owner.”
- PC Shipments Drop; Corporate Demand Slows Pace of Decline.
Worldwide personal-computer
shipments dropped in the first quarter as consumers in emerging markets
opted for smartphones and tablets, while corporate demand helped slow
the pace of the decline, researchers said. Unit sales fell 1.7
percent from a year earlier to 76.6 million, market researcher Gartner
Inc. said today in a statement. IDC, another technology-research firm,
said quarterly shipments worldwide fell 4.4 percent to 73.4 million. The
PC market is on course for a third annual contraction, threatening
earnings at companies that rely on sales of the devices, such as Intel
Corp. (INTC) and Hewlett-Packard Co.
- Asian Stocks Pare Gains With Aussie as China Trade Drops.
Asian stocks pared gains and Australia’s dollar trimmed its advance as
Chinese trade figures unexpectedly fell, tempering optimism after the
Federal Reserve eased concern about when U.S. rates will rise.
Indonesian equities tumbled after elections failed to show a clear
winner. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.3 percent by 11:41
a.m. in Tokyo, after gaining as much as 0.9 percent before China’s data
release.
- Iron-Ore Bear Market Deepens as Aussie Mines Expand: Commodities. The world is mining more iron ore
than steelmakers need. Australia, the largest supplier, sent 504 ships from Port
Hedland during the first quarter carrying enough iron-ore
exports to build more than 700 Golden Gate Bridges. Shipments
jumped 35 percent to the biggest buyer, China, where inventories
have ballooned to the highest ever. After companies including BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto
Group expanded capacity to meet surging steel demand, output is
climbing just as China’s economy slows to the weakest since
1990. Prices that already are down 14 percent in the past year
will slump at least 16 percent further in the second half to
less than $100 a metric ton, the lowest level since 2012,
according to Credit Suisse Group AG and Standard Chartered Plc.
- JPMorgan’s(JPM) Dimon Says Cyber Intruders Could Breach Bank Defenses. JPMorgan
Chase & Co. (JPM) is facing “increasingly complex and more
dangerous” cyberattacks and some of the intruders may get through, Chief
Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said. “It is going to be a continual
and likely never-ending battle to stay ahead of it -- and,
unfortunately, not every battle will be won,” Dimon wrote today in his
annual letter to shareholders of the New York-based bank. The company
will boost spending on cybersecurity to $250 million this year from $200
million in 2012, with future efforts expanding
“exponentially,” he wrote.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
- Dimon warns regulation will push credit costs higher. Jamie
Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, has warned that customers
will face more costly credit or be denied certain financial products
altogether as a result of tougher regulation. Mr Dimon is famous for clashing with regulators, including
Mark Carney, head of the Financial Stability Board and now governor of
the Bank of England, as well as slamming capital rules as
"anti-American".
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- Chevron(CVX) expects first-quarter profit to slip. Chevron Corp, the second-largest oil company in the United States, said on Wednesday it expected
first-quarter income to slip because of high currency conversion
costs and environmental charges in its mining unit.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.75 -.75 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 86.5 -1.25 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 320K versus 326K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2835K versus 2836K prior.
- Import Price Index for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.9% gain in February.
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for March is estimated at -$36.0B versus -$106.5B in February.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Evans speaking, China inflation data, BoE rate decision, $13B 30Y
T-Bond auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg
April US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (COP)
analyst meeting, (HST) investor day and the (PSX) analyst meeting could
also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian
indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and financial
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Volume: Slightly Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.89 -6.72%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.07 +.36%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.19 +.61%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.91 -5.53%
- ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 +9.76%
- Total Put/Call .56 -38.46%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.03 -2.39%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.99 -2.35%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 42.55 +1.40%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 86.97 -1.03%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 271.11 -3.37%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 354.02 -.34%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 +.5 basis point
- TED Spread 19.75 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
- Yield Curve 232.0 +4.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $119.40/Metric Tonne +1.02%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -45.20 unch.
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.10 +1.0 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +2.o basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +165 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech/medical sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- IMF Sees Rising Risks for Emerging Markets’ Corporate Debt.
Years of cheap credit have inflated corporate and sovereign debt in
emerging markets that now find themselves at greater risk of capital
flight if global interest rates rise further, the International Monetary
Fund said. While the IMF predicts a smooth withdrawal of monetary
stimulus by the Federal Reserve, a “bumpy exit” is possible, Jose Vinals, the head of the IMF’s capital markets department, said in prepared remarks. The result could be a faster-than-anticipated increase in interest rates, widening credit spreads
and greater financial volatility, he said. “Emerging markets are especially vulnerable to a
tightening in the external financial environment, after a
prolonged period of capital inflows, easy access to
international markets, and low interest rates,” Vinals said in
remarks accompanying the release of the IMF’s Global Financial
Stability Report. Years of low interest rates in advanced economies have
encouraged global investors to seek higher yields in fast-growing developing countries. Investment
from advanced economies into emerging-market bonds reached an estimated
$1.5 trillion by the end of 2013, the IMF said. Emerging-market
corporate debt tripled from 2009 to 2013, with debt levels in countries
such as China, Hungary and Malaysia reaching or exceeding 100 percent of
gross domestic
product.
- Ruble to Micex Decline as Putin Discusses Ukraine Energy Ties. The
ruble weakened for a third day and the Micex equities gauge declined as
President Vladimir Putin said Russia can’t subsidize Ukraine’s economy
“forever” amid continued unrest in the east of the country. The
ruble retreated 0.1 percent versus the central bank’s target basket of
dollars and euros to 41.8325 by 6 p.m. in Moscow, when the central bank
stops its market operations. The Micex Index (INDEXCF) dropped 0.3
percent to 1,348.85, having earlier
decreased as much as 1.1 percent, and yields on 10-year
ruble-denominated debt fell one basis point to 8.89 percent.
- Russia’s First-Quarter Capital Outflows Largest Since Late 2008. Russian capital outflows in the
first quarter were the largest since the last three months of
2008 when the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
triggered the biggest credit squeeze since the Great Depression. Net outflows totaled $50.6 billion, more than double the
$17.8 billion that left in the previous quarter, the central
bank in Moscow said in a statement on its website today. In the
final quarter of 2008, capital outflows were $132.1 billion.
Outflows for the whole of last year reached $59.6 billion.
- World Steel Use Growth to Slow as China Decelerates, Lobby Says. Growth in world steel use will slow
this year as China’s consumption of the metal decelerates, the
World Steel Association trade lobby said. Global “apparent” steel use will increase 3.1 percent in
2014 to 1.53 billion metric tons, after 3.6 percent growth last
year, the Brussels-based group said today in a report. Chinese
consumption will rise 3 percent, down from 6.1 percent. “Many emerging economies continue to struggle with
structural issues and financial market volatility,” Hans Jurgen
Kerkhoff, chairman of the Worldsteel Economics Committee, said
in the report. “This, along with China’s deceleration, is the
reason for our slightly lower global growth rate forecast for
2014.”
- China's
NDRC Said to Start Inspection of Corporate Bond Risks. China's National
Development and Reform Commission is conducting an inspection of risks
associated with corporate bonds for which it holds oversight, people
familiar with the matter said. The inspections, which began in March,
focus mainly on how companies are using funds they raise from bond
sales, according to the people.
- China Stimulus Would Be ‘Mistake’: Nobel Laureate Phelps. Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps was
among a group of economists who called on China to refrain from
introducing a stimulus package as pressure grows on the
government to take steps to support economic growth. It would be a “mistake” for Premier Li Keqiang to use
stimulus to maintain the expansion, Edmund Phelps, winner of the
2006 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, said at the Bo’ao Forum
yesterday in southern China’s Hainan province.
- Brazil March Inflation Faster Than Every Economist Estimate. Brazil’s consumer prices rose more
in March than economists estimated, increasing pressure on the
central bank to extend the world’s longest cycle of interest
rate increases. Swap rates rose. Inflation as measured by the benchmark IPCA index
accelerated to 0.92 percent from 0.69 percent in February, the
national statistics agency said today in Rio de Janeiro. That
was faster than forecast by all 40 analysts surveyed by
Bloomberg, whose median estimate was for an 0.85 percent rise.
Annual (BZPIIPCY) inflation quickened to 6.15 percent from 5.68 percent,
marking its fastest rate since July.
- LVMH Sales Trail Estimates as China Destocking Hurts Cognac. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the world’s largest
luxury-goods company, reported an unexpected decline in wine and spirit
sales in the first quarter as a Chinese crackdown on lavish spending hit
cognac sales. Revenue advanced 4 percent to 7.21 billion euros
($10 billion), Paris-based LVMH said today in a statement after European
markets closed. Analysts predicted 7.4 billion euros, according to the
median of 17 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales from wines and
spirits sales fell 3 percent on an organic basis, led by cognac in
China, LVMH said. Analysts predicted growth of 3 percent.
- Draghi’s Hunt for QE Assets Leaves ECB Scouring Barren Market. Mario Draghi’s asset-purchase plan to ward off deflation may be lacking one key element: enough assets to buy. Since
the European Central Bank President buoyed investors last week by
saying policy makers backed quantitative easing as a way to boost prices
if needed, officials including Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny
have signaled any purchases may center on asset-backed securities. While
that makes sense in an economy funded mostly by bank loans, it’s also a
market Draghi once described as “dead.”
- European Stocks Rise After Two-Day Drop as Carmakers Gain.
European stocks advanced, after the
region’s equities posted their first back-to-back losses in more
than three weeks, as carmakers climbed. Daimler AG rose as its chief
executive officer predicted
significant profit growth this year. Wirecard AG jumped 5.8
percent as a broker recommended buying the stock as the company
confirmed its 2014 forecast and increased its annual dividend. Norsk
Hydro (NHY) ASA added 1.9 percent as U.S. peer Alcoa Inc. posted a
higher-than-projected quarterly profit and reiterated its
forecast for global aluminum demand to grow 7 percent this year.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.4 percent to 335.16 at
the close of trading.
- WTI Crude Rises to One-Month High on Gasoline Demand.
WTI for May delivery rose 54 cents, or 0.5 percent, to
$103.10 a barrel at 1:02 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after
reaching $103.19, the most since March 5. Prices were at $102.60 before
the EIA report was released at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. The volume of all futures traded was 44 percent
above the 100-day average.
- Copper Futures Fall in London Amid China Demand Concern.
Copper for delivery in three months fell 0.8 percent to settle at $6,617
a metric ton ($3 a pound) at 5:50 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange,
the biggest loss since March 26. On the Comex in New York, copper
futures for delivery in May declined
0.5 percent to $3.037 a pound.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
- UN finding on climate change is just a bunch of hot air, new report claims. A U.N.-commissioned panel says climate change is hurting the growth
of crops, affecting the quality of water supplies and forcing wildlife
to change the way it lives – but what if it’s all just smoke and mirrors? A
new report from the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate
Change (NIPCC), written by an international collection of scientists and
published by the conservative Heartl and Institute, claims just that,
declaring that
humanity's impact on climate is not causing substantial harm to the
Earth.
ZeroHedge:
Reuters:
- ECB dismisses latest bank appeal over health-check deadlines. The European Central Bank
has dismissed the latest appeal by the region's biggest lenders
for concessions, including easier deadlines, to make rigorous
health checks of their industry less logistically onerous,
sources told Reuters. ECB officials indicated to representatives of the European
Banking Federation, an industry lobby group, that they would not
alter the timetable of this year's "asset quality review", two
sources familiar with a meeting between the two sides said.
- Non-banks notch win in long-running derivatives battle. A group of small brokerages
and large commodities companies have convinced lawmakers to tweak a
rule they say would have made derivatives trading more expensive for
them and sent more business to Wall Street banks that already dominate the market.
Washington Times:
- IRS under fire: Vote for Obama stickers, campaign cheerleading commonplace. Agency
still under fire for Lois Lerner-tea party targeting scandal. Even as
the IRS faces growing heat over Lois G. Lerner and the tea party
targeting scandal, a government watchdog said Wednesday it’s pursuing
cases against three other tax agency employees and offices suspected of
illegal political activity in support of President Obama and fellow
Democrats.
Sky News:
- IMF Warns Investors Over 'Rock-Bottom Rates'. Investors are becoming dangerously reliant on rock-bottom
interest rates, with many becoming so indebted they will face serious
problems when borrowing costs rise, the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) has warned. The IMF said that the amount of cash spent on leveraged loans -
the high-debt instruments with financial problems - now exceeds the
level in 2007 before the crisis. The same is the case with covenant-lite loans, which have become
more lax than normal debt - they are also being created at a
significantly faster rate than in 2007. The warnings came in the IMF's Global Financial Stability
Report. It said that financial markets may struggle when, eventually,
the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and other central banks raise
interest rates. The report's lead author, Jose Vinals, said that many economies were reliant on these "liquidity crutches".
Telegraph:
La Figaro:
- JPMorgan Chase(JPM) CEO Says France's Future Worries Him. Jami
Dimon tells Le Figaro he worries for the future of France when he hears
that thousands of French, "not just the rich but also the young and
entrepreneurs" are leaving the country.
NDTV:
- China Sees Less Policy Room to Fight Growth Slowdown.
China has less and less room to rely on policy tools to support the
economy, the country's top economic planning agency said on Wednesday,
as the government tries to arrest a slowdown this year.Policy fine-tuning is needed to smooth out economic volatility, but room
for the government to underpin growth is narrowing, the National
Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) said in a report evaluating the
implementation of the country's 12th five-year plan (2011-2015). "Against the backdrop of rising local government debt burdens, high
debt ratios and rapid money supply growth and excessively large social
financing, room for simply using fiscal and monetary policy to manage
demand and promote economic growth is getting smaller and smaller," the
NDRC said. "Improper operation will exacerbate overcapacity and delay structural
adjustments, increase inflationary pressures and accumulate debt risks."
Daily News:
- does not need Europe and its extensions, PM Erdoğan’s advisor suggests.
Turkey does not need Europe and its “material-moral extensions,”
according to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s economic adviser,
Yiğit Bulut. Writing in his column in daily Star on April 9, Bulut
suggested that the “new world order” would consist of three main
components: the American continent, the Turkey-Russia-Eurasia-Middle
East line, and the China-India-Iran line. He wrote that Turkey had been "used by Europe and its extensions" for years, being "humiliated and scorned" in the process. “Today
we don’t need this and the most important thing is that there is no
Europe and it is impossible for it to be in the new balance of the world
order,” Bulut wrote.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Utilities -1.16% 2) Homebuilders -.92% 3) REITs -.82%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- AHT, ISRG, APOL, DO, STZ, AVIV, VISN, BIS, IDA, TM, HSY, PACW, DTE, VFC, EA, AEE, HVT, EXC, UFS, APA, JJSF, RIG, AVA and CBD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) SPLS 2) CTSH 3) DXJ 4) XLU 5) VMW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) GM 2) ISRG 3) AMZN 4) EXC 5) APA
Charts:
