Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,126.54 +2.41%

• DJIA 18,086.45 +1.84%

• NASDAQ 5,210.14 +4.25%

• Russell 2000 1,267.09 +1.20%

• S&P 500 High Beta 33.22 +.82%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 141.26 +.95% 

• Wilshire 5000 22,209.45 +2.15%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,033.15 +3.10%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,024.97 +1.37%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 514.33 +1.88%

• Solactive US Cyclical 130.04 +.45%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,060.24 +5.04%

• Transports 8,293.61 +1.12%

• Utilities 575.42 +.78%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 122.52 +4.83%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.76 -.06%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,216.13 +1.96%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.76 +.85%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 236,248 +.82%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 7 +377

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 18.75 -33.53%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 264,387 -10.73%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,733,695 +2.47%

• Total Put/Call .84 -16.0%

• OEX Put/Call .64 -27.27%

• ISE Sentiment 96.0 +41.18%

• NYSE Arms 1.35 +46.74%

• Volatility(VIX) 11.95 -29.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.35 -2.29%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.98 -8.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.12 -8.87%

• Smart Money Flow Index 16,913 +1.06%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.632 Trillion -.05%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.446 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 30.8 +10.4%

• AAII % Bears 23.2 -20.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 214.54 -1.70%

• Crude Oil 50.89 -3.65%

• Reformulated Gasoline 192.86 -5.04%

• Natural Gas 2.87 +3.61%

• Heating Oil 166.41 -4.39%

• Gold 1,131.90 -2.62%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 158.63 +.30%

• Copper 249.60 -1.81%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 247.25 USD/Ton -.83%

• China Iron Ore Spot 50.66 USD/Ton +1.12%

• Lumber 278.20 -5.76%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,137.52 -2.09%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .6% -60.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0064 +293.93%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.81 +.09%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.0 +3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .7 +4.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.70 -8.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 54.0% chance of no change, 46.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/29
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.83 -21.5%

• US Dollar Index 97.86 +2.18%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.35 -1.98%

• Yield Curve 168.0 -9.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.35% -7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.456 Trillion +.29%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.47 +3.35%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 230.0 +.22%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.29 -14.34%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 57.72 -3.67%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 289.98 -2.86%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.82 -2.54%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 704.75 -4.79%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 311.75 -4.92%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.18 +.79%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83% -6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 27.25 +.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.0 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 65.40 -5.77%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,510.0 +18.89%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.22 -14.07%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 296.30 -.76%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 97.0 +6.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $3.035 Trillion -.35%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,028.50 +.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 282,500 +3,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.09% +5 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 376.10 -1.93%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.20 -.3 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.40% -10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.76/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 1,048 +19.91%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 842.87 +4.73%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 +20.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 262,603 +2.98%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +3.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.2%

Leading Sectors

• Internet +8.8%

• Biotech +6.8%

• Banks +3.2%

• Oil Tankers +2.8%

• Computer Services +2.6%

Lagging Sectors

• Hospitals -1.7% 

• Homebuilders -1.9%

• Oil Service -4.4%

• Gold & Silver -8.1%

• Coal -13.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• ANAC, REMY, ZGNX, OCUL, RCPT, TE, NTCT, NXST, BEAT and PSMT

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)

• CUDA, HMSY, FCS and VNCE

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower on Fed Rate Hike Concerns, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.94 -1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.61 -.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.25 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation t58.56 -2.30%

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -27.83%

• Total Put/Call .79 -10.23%

• NYSE Arms 1.38 +15.75% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.21 -.24%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,479.0 +15.9%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.42 -3.11%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.19 -1.83%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 57.72 -2.38%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 298.63 +.92%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.18 +.20%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 +1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 27.25 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 168.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $50.66/Metric Tonne n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.8 n/a

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -.3 n/a

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.30 n/a

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 -1.0 basis point
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.83 -.70

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +75 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -230 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating + open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running 19.4% Above 100-day average
• 1 Sector Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 26.7% of Issues Advancing, 69.6% Declining
• 53 New 52-Week Highs, 154 New Lows
• 45.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.0
• Vix 11.82
• Total Put/Call .79
• TRIN/Arms 1.38

Friday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.75 -1.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.0 -.75 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (ALV)/1.55
• (CMA)/.75
• (GE)/.29
• (HON)/1.49
• (JBHT)/.90
• (KSU)/1.02
• (PGR)/.55
• (STI)/.81
• (GWW)/3.05

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for June are estimated to rise to 1106K versus 1036K in May.
• Building Permits for June are estimated to fall to 1150K versus 1275K in May.
• The CPI for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in May.
• The CPI ex Food & Energy for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May. 
• Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY for June.

10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for July is estimated to fall to 96.0 versus 96.1 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (BURL) annual meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Eurozone/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.97 -9.52%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.10 -.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.33 -.95%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.22 -.15%

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +30.34%

• Total Put/Call .88 -8.33%

• NYSE Arms 1.39 +10.81% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.37 -3.12%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,276.0 -.22%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.55 -4.61%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.58 -6.85%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 59.13 -.99%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 297.35 -2.75%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.894 +.11%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 unch.

• TED Spread 27.75 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 169.0 -3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $50.66/Metric Tonne +.22%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.8 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -.3 +.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.30 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.85 unch.
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 6.53 -.04

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +109 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -184 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/retail/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.18%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Hospitals -2.62% 2) HMOs -1.04% 3) Homebuilders -.64%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• GRMN, SHW, CLM, TZOO, RARE, FCS, ROVI, SON, ASML, UA, GEL, DPLO, DPZ, TSM, FCFS, HCLP, VAL, SKT, GS, PPG, BWA, SIX, PKX, KLAC, GM and LEA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LQD 2) IP 3) X 4) MCD 5) IP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BWA 2) GM 3) KORS 4) LEA 5) DLPH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume