Saturday, July 25, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Earnings Rally Fizzles Out as Dow Posts Worst Week Since January. Equity investors had a chance to grab onto something other than Greece this week, and the result wasn’t pretty. A nascent rally tied to earnings disappeared as blue-chip companies bore the brunt of selling that drove the Dow Jones Industrial Average down the most since January. Energy and raw-material stocks were driven lower by a global rout in commodities. Stocks worldwide tumbled 2.1 percent, with the MSCI All-Country World Index posting its worst week of the year. The Dow dropped 517.92 points, or 2.9 percent, to 17,568.53. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 2.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.3 percent, the biggest declines for both gauges since March.
  • Junk-Debt Market Rocked as Cautious Creditors Stymie New Deals. Junk-bond investors, who had been financing the riskiest U.S. companies in a bid to boost returns, are asking for a time-out amid a deepening rout in commodities. Energy-services providers Exterran Holdings Inc. and leather-chemicals company Stahl scrapped plans to raise debt after failing to gather enough investor support. Lenders are extracting concessions from hospital owner Prime Healthcare Services Inc. and Builders FirstSource Inc. as yields on speculative-grade debt climb to a seven-month high. “The market is really differentiating between the winners and the losers,” said John McClain, a money manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management Inc., in Columbus, Ohio. “And the losers are being punished. The confluence of global events -- especially within the commodity space -- has weighed on the market.”
  • Hillary Clinton's Fix for Short-Termism? They Tried It in 1934. One thing she didn't mention: the last time the U.S. taxed capital gains roughly the way she wants to was during the depths of the Great Depression. Hillary Clinton didn't mention 1934 in her speech today about fighting short-termism, but she could have. The last time the U.S. taxed capital gains roughly the way she wants to was from 1934 to 1941, from the depths of the Great Depression to the eve of World War II.In other words, when it comes to tax policy, everything old is new again.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News: 
  • Special Ops Chief: Russia aims to divide NATO, poses 'existential' threat to US. Russia seeks to test the United States at every opportunity and divide the NATO alliance, posing the most significant long term threat to US national security, the head of the U.S. Special Operations Command, General Joseph Votel , told the Aspen Security Forum. "Russia is looking to challenge us wherever they can,” Votel told Fox News’ Catherine Herridge.  "The intent is to create a situation where NATO can't continue to thrive."
CNBC:
  • Renewed bailout talks between Greece and creditors hit snags. Talks to agree a new €86bn bailout for Greece ran into trouble on Friday after Athens raised hurdles for negotiators in the Greek capital, forcing them to postpone their arrival amid renewed acrimony.
  • Hillary’s inconceivably stupid capital-gains tax scheme. The worst sectors of the worst recovery since World War II are business investment in new plants and equipment and new business start-ups. These are the biggest job creators, and their slump is a key reason for the sub-par labor recovery, with low participation rates and high involuntary part-time workers. So if investment is the problem, what does Hillary Clinton go out and do? She proposes jacking up the tax on investment. It's almost inconceivably stupid.
ZeroHedge:
Financial Times:
  • Syriza’s covert plot during crisis talks to return to drachma. Arresting the central bank’s governor. Emptying its vaults. Appealing to Moscow for help. These were the elements of a covert plan to return Greece to the drachma hatched by members of the Left Platform faction of Greece’s governing Syriza party.
Telegraph: 

Friday, July 24, 2015

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 2,079.65 -2.21%*
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The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,079.65 -2.21%
  • DJIA 17,568.53 -2.86%
  • NASDAQ 5,088.63 -2.33%
  • Russell 2000 1,225.99 -3.24%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 31.80 -4.28%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 138.73 -1.79% 
  • Wilshire 5000 21,704.94 -2.27%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,011.98 -2.05%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,0001.20 -2.32%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 509.62 -.92%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 125.60 -3.41%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,055.16 -.48%
  • Transports 8,072.57 -2.67%
  • Utilities 562.74 -2.20%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 120.55 -1.61%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 37.47 -2.60%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,214.62 -.12%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,000.48 +.07%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 231,410 -2.05%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -503 -510
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 16.22 -13.49%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 253,683 -4.05%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,668,737 -3.75%
  • Total Put/Call 1.39 +65.48%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.03 +60.94%
  • ISE Sentiment 65.0 -32.29%
  • NYSE Arms 1.51 +11.85%
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.74 +14.97%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.47 +1.92%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.39 +4.57%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.13 +12.44%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 16,769.17 -.85%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.649 Trillion +.62%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$11.468 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 32.5 +5.6%
  • AAII % Bears 25.6 +10.2%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 205.04 -4.42%
  • Crude Oil 47.99 -5.49%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 182.55 -5.53%
  • Natural Gas 2.78 -3.67%
  • Heating Oil 163.03 -1.91%
  • Gold 1,099.50 -3.14%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 151.70 -4.37%
  • Copper 238.65 -4.37%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 247.25 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 51.42 USD/Ton +1.5%
  • Lumber 266.70 -3.86%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,079.86 -5.07%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate .3% -30.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0064 unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 125.89 +.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.4 +3.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.6 -6.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.50 -3.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 54.0% chance of no change, 46.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/29
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.17 -11.3%
  • US Dollar Index 97.23 -.74%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.0 +1.18%
  • Yield Curve 158.0 -10.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.26% -9.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.462 Trillion +.15%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.50 -5.92%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 234.0 +1.71%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.08 +3.71%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 61.54 +6.62%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 296.86 +2.37%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.18 +.54%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 720.24 +2.20%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 334.20 +7.2%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.60 +.35%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76% -7.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 26.5 -.75 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 +1.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.95 +8.48%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,611.0 +7.69%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 71.43 +4.69%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 320.88 +8.30%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 97.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.013 Trillion -.71%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,047.70 +1.90%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 278,500 -4,000
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.04% -5 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 376.60 +.13%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 42.40 -.8 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.30% -10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.73/gallon -.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,102 +5.2%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 838.71 -.49%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.50 -5.56%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 273,850 +7.39%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -3.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Networking +2.0%
  • Coal +1.7%
  • Restaurants +.8%
  • Medical Equipment +.5%
  • Gaming unch.
Lagging Sectors
  • Biotech -4.9% 
  • Computer Services -5.0%
  • Steel -6.1%
  • Oil Tankers -9.9%
  • Gold & Silver -11.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (17)
  • ITEK, VSLR, THOR, TIER, NEOG, HTWR, GPRO, BLDR, GOOGL, HTBK, CMG, ETSY, PRLB, CRUS, LII, VASC and ADPT
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (17)
  • ABG, FCFS, TUP, ASTE, PEGI, BEAV, CAB, BMI, SCSS, CUBI, DFRG, NEM, QSII, UNFI, SWI, LXK and HMSY
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Rerversing Sharply Lower into Afternoon on Global Growth Fears, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Biotech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.17 +12.10%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.92 -.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.09 +4.24%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.73 -.75%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 66.0 -26.67%
  • Total Put/Call 1.29 +25.24%
  • NYSE Arms 1.71 +43.59% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.09 +3.63%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,621.0 +3.46%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.42 +3.22%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.08 +1.31%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.54 +3.53%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 320.65 +1.75%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.60 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.75 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 158.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $51.42/Metric Tonne -.58%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.4 -7.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.6 -14.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.5 -5.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 -1.0 basis point
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.17 -.04
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -170 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -254 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -63 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Shanghai Shares Detach From Economic Reality as State Funds Buy. In most stock markets, data showing weak economic growth is bad news for investors. In China on Friday, it was just the opposite -- the Shanghai Composite Index rose as much as 1.5 percent after a private gauge of Chinese manufacturing unexpectedly fell to a 15-month low. It’s the latest sign of how divorced the nation’s $7.5 trillion market has become from economic fundamentals amid unprecedented government intervention to prop up share prices. The gauge erased gains toward the end of trading to close 1.3 percent lower. “There is a clear detachment between fundamentals and the movement of stocks on the mainland,” said Gerry Alfonso, a sales trader at Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co. in Shanghai. “The poor factory data should have had a bigger impact.”  
  • Shanghai Margin Debt Rises Most in Seven Weeks Amid Stock Rally. Chinese stock investors increased leveraged positions in Shanghai by the most in almost two months as the benchmark equity index extended a rebound. The outstanding balance of margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 1.3 percent to 941.4 billion yuan ($152 billion) on Thursday, the biggest increase since June 2.
  • Exit Emerging Markets Before the Fed Moves, Danske Fund Says. Get out of emerging markets before the U.S. Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates. That’s the position of Danica, the pension fund unit of Danske Bank A/S, Denmark’s biggest bank. The fund, which oversees about $50 billion in assets, says the shift that comes once the Fed starts tightening monetary policy will overshadow every other moving piece in markets. High-returning but illiquid markets will be a bad place to be when that happens, according to Jacob Aarup-Andersen, Danica’s chief financial officer.
  • Why the Price of Stocks in China Matters to U.S. Credit Buyers. The effects of China’s economic slowdown are trickling into the U.S. debt markets in some small, but meaningful, ways. Investors have suffered a 13 percent decline this year on $56 billion of junk-rated debt of metals and mining companies such as Arch Coal Inc. and Walter Energy Inc., which filed for bankruptcy protection this month. That world of hurt contrasts with a 1.6 percent gain in the $1.4 trillion U.S. high-yield bond market, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. You can blame China for some of these hefty losses, since the world’s second-biggest economy consumes more than 40 percent of the world’s coal, copper and steel production, according to Barclays Plc analysts.
  • German Manufacturing Growth Slowed in July as Exports Decline. German manufacturing growth unexpectedly cooled in July as exports fell for the first time in six months. Markit Economics said on Friday its factory index slipped to 51.5 from 51.9 in June, missing economists’ forecast for an unchanged reading. An export index fell below the key 50 level for the first time since January, indicating a contraction. A services gauge also fell in July, to 53.7 from 53.8, while a composite index of both sectors slipped to 53.4 from 53.7. Economists had forecast 53.9.
  • Emerging Currencies Drop to Record Low as China Saps Commodities. Emerging-market currencies deepened their slump to a record low as a surprise slowdown in Chinese manufacturing threatened to exacerbate a rout in global commodity prices. South Africa’s rand led the decline, falling 1.5 percent against the dollar as gold tumbled. Brazil’s real dropped to the weakest level in 12 years on mounting concern that the country’s credit rating will be cut. The lira slid for a third day as Turkey stepped up its fight against Islamic State militants. The Bloomberg Commodity Index sank to the lowest since 2002. A gauge of 20 developing-nation currencies retreated 0.6 percent.
  • World’s Worst Currency Drop Sparks Race to Cut Brazil Forecasts. The Brazilian real’s 4.5 percent tumble this week, the most among major currencies worldwide, has forecasters reviewing their exchange-rate targets after the government said it won’t meet fiscal goals. The real touched a 12-year low Friday, falling faster and further than economists had predicted, after Finance Minister Joaquim Levy asked lawmakers to cut a key budget goal. The move sparked speculation that Brazil’s credit ratings will be cut as Latin America’s largest economy heads for the worst recession in a quarter century. The real weakened 1.5 percent to 3.3390 per dollar at 1:21 p.m. in Sao Paulo, the weakest intraday level since March 2003.
  • China Slump Breaks Aussie’s Back as S&P Spurs Slide to 2009 Lows. The Australian dollar slumped to the weakest level in six years as a gauge of Chinese manufacturing unexpectedly worsened and Standard & Poor’s said it might lower Australia’s credit rating if the budget doesn’t improve. The Aussie fell against all its 31 major counterparts as Caixin Media and Markit Economics said their flash manufacturing index for China dropped to the lowest in 15 months. China is Australia’s major trading partner. ABN Amro Bank NV, the most accurate Aussie forecaster in Bloomberg Rankings last quarter, lowered its 2015 and 2016 year-end estimates for the currency. China’s numbers “were very weak,” said Roy Teo, a currency strategist at ABN Amro in Singapore. “Everything looks bearish at the moment.” Australia’s currency tumbled 0.8 percent to 72.93 U.S. cents as of 7:22 a.m. in London after sliding to 72.69, the lowest since May 2009. The New Zealand dollar dropped 0.2 percent to 65.95 cents.
  • Chinese Stocks Slump as Weak Factory Data Spurs Growth Concerns. Chinese stocks dropped, with a gauge of shares in Hong Kong falling for a sixth week, after a private gauge of manufacturing in the nation unexpectedly declined to the lowest level in 15 months. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slumped 1.3 percent to 11,679.01, taking its retreat this week to 1.4 percent.
  • European Stocks Little Changed Amid Mixed Earnings; Miners Slump. European stocks fell with miners and auto-related shares, extending their first weekly drop in three, as data around the world signaled worsening economic conditions. Antofagasta Plc and Glencore Plc slipped at least 4.5 percent as commodity producers extended a rout. Volkswagen AG slid 2.7 percent, pacing losses among carmakers, after Manager Magazin said a drop in its Chinese deliveries could hurt earnings by more than 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion). BASF SE declined 4.6 percent after its earnings trailed projections. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.9 percent to 394.64 at the close of trading, reversing intraday gains of 0.5 percent.
  • Commodity Collapse Isn’t Slowing Down Amid Worst Week of 2015.
    The commodity collapse that sent gold to a five-year low and pulled crude oil into a bear market isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 4.3 percent this week, the most since November, and extended a drop to a 13-year low. Shares of Freeport-McMoRan Inc., the biggest publicly traded copper producer, are poised for the worst week since 2011 as the metal dropped to a six-year low in New York. Brent oil is on its way to the longest run of weekly declines since January.
  • Copper Extends Slide to Lowest Since 2009 on Weak China Demand. Copper declined to the lowest since 2009 as manufacturing data added to evidence that demand is slowing in China, the world’s biggest metals consumer. A private gauge of Chinese manufacturing unexpectedly fell to the lowest in 15 months. Investors in the nation who are banned from shorting equities may be selling copper instead, exacerbating the metal’s collapse. The rout could get worse, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts lower copper prices. Traders and analysts were the most bearish since May in a Bloomberg survey. Shares of Freeport-McMoRan Inc., the biggest publicly traded producer of the metal, are heading for the biggest weekly drop since 2011. 
  • Citigroup Says Top Trade in Commodity Rout Is Short Iron Ore. In a beaten-up commodities world with copper, gold and crude oil on the slide, Citigroup Inc. said the best trade at present is to wager on further losses in iron ore. “We’ve been generally bearish for the last two years, really, so still even today we probably see more opportunities for the downside than to the upside,” said Ivan Szpakowski, the bank’s commodity strategist in Hong Kong. “Our most-preferred trade at this point would be short iron ore.”
ZeroHedge:
ZDF TV:
  • Schaeuble Beats Merkel on Handling of Greece Crisis in ZDF Poll. Share of Germans who think Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has done a good job handling bailout negotiations with Greece was 74%, citing an FG Wahlen poll. Measure for Chancellor Merkel in poll was 62%.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.33%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -3.12% 2) Oil Service -3.11% 3) Homebuidlers -2.78%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SPNC, BIIB, CPHD, CTCT, FWP, AIRM, UIS, COF, FET, ABAX, URI, CUBI, ALGN, DST, UTEK, TRIP, PEB, CI, GIMO, NANO, AAN, ADS, SAP, CFX, MYCC, SIVB, TERP, EQT, SCCO, COL, SXC, TMST, LXK, WBC, SWKS, ADS, URI, STT, DST, RHI, AAN, CSII, ENTA, MINI, FCX, EXH and TRIP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ODP 2) EPE 3) GT 4) COF 5) CMI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) URI 2) PTEN 3) CAT 4) GM 5) C
Charts: