Friday, September 09, 2016

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,134.72 -1.52%
  • DJIA 18,107.80 -1.31%
  • NASDAQ 5,133.62 -1.40%
  • Russell 2000 1,225.09 -1.17%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 32.29 +.53%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 115.63 -.74
  • Wilshire 5000 22,078.50 -1.42%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,026.37 -1.83%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,030.25 -1.17%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 539.94 -2.75%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 136.83 -2.96%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,165.88 -1.54%
  • Transports 7,842.30 -.55%
  • Utilities 658.06 -.62%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.53 -.05%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 37.38 +1.95%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,142.46 +1.18%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,001.35 +.53%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 271,585 +1.06%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 354 +265
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.0 +16.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 341,288 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,787,891 n/a
  • Total Put/Call 1.16 +20.0%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.86 +314.55%
  • ISE Sentiment 73.0 -12.35%
  • NYSE Arms .93 +10.61%
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.39 +22.25%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.47 +11.82%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.91 -1.39%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.06 +2.97%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,550.71 +.14%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.695 Trillion -1.08%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.780 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 29.8 +4.0%
  • AAII % Bears 28.5 -9.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 182.53 +2.43%
  • Crude Oil 46.0 +5.42%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 136.57 +6.65%
  • Natural Gas 2.79 -.42%
  • Heating Oil 143.16 +2.86%
  • Gold 1,329.70 +1.20%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 148.54 -.30%
  • Copper 208.95 +.41%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 209.33 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 57.78 USD/Ton -2.71%
  • Lumber 309.40 -.29%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,142.67 +2.99%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.3% -20.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +8.3% +20.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0820 -2.86%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.44 -.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.9 -5.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -18.7 -14.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.60 -6.7 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 68.0% chance of no change, 32.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/21
  • US Dollar Index 95.37 -.54%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,555.21 +1.35%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.43 -.59%
  • Yield Curve 89.0 +7.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.67% +7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.419 Trillion +.04%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.52 -2.72%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 355.0 -.17%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 24.64 +.29%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 37.75 -1.96%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 104.07 -2.87%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.34 +.51%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 733.73 -.05%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 202.0 -4.52%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.63 +.18%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% +3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 49.0 -3.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.5 +10.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 74.02 +2.67%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 662.0 -3.98%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 87.78 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 238.31 -1.63%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 139.0 +1.5 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $3.330 Trillion -.73%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 982.70 +.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 261,250 -1,750
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.44% -2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 549.90 +.86%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.0 +.6 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.8% +40.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.18/gallon -.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 792.0 +10.0%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 702.65 +1.16%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 +11.1%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 265.709 -1.59%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -.9%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large -Cap Growth -1.7%
Leading Sectors
  • Hospitals +3.5%
  • Gaming +2.4%
  • Airlines +2.4%
  • Energy +1.8%
  • HMOs +.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Construction -2.9% 
  • Foods -3.2%
  • Steel -3.6%
  • Homebuilders -4.1%
  • Semis -5.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)
  • CLCD, CPHD, NAV, RTRX, PI, SE, SGMS, APA, CVGW, FRAN, TLRD, SRAQ, APIC, AGX, TIVO, CTMX, AIR, VRNT, TCMD, TRUP, CPE, FNSR, VLS and DO
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (21)
  • IPHI OLLI, CTLT, SWHC, THRM, PLAY,  RMBS, SCTY, NX, CASY, SYNT, AIRM, JW/A, HDS, ADPT, SFM, PAY, WAT, TSCO, HOME and DVAX
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Emerging Markets Currency Worries, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.87 +26.86%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.23 -.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.06 +4.79%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.26 +15.92%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -23.66%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +8.25%
  • NYSE Arms .66 -16.49
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.99 +4.42%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 661.0 -2.7%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.70 +4.24%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.64 +.76%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 37.66 +4.58%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 238.31 +2.38%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.63 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 49.25 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.50 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.57 -.97%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .34% unch.
  • Yield Curve 89.0 +5.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.78/Metric Tonne -.62%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.9 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -18.7 -4.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.6 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% -3.0 basis points
  • 36.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 60.3% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -170 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -73 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -63 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -2.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -6.0% 2) Disk Drives -5.5% 3) Steel -5.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • NEP, EVH, TRU, TPB, LSI, CQP, GWPH, CPG, SUI, CRTO, CVLT, WATT, ENB, MOMO, BRG, XTLY, TSCO, PDI, HDS, TRNC, EDI, MON, SWKS, TIVO, CRH, CLVS, TMO, WHR, MPW, BZH, AVXS, ACIA, DO and BOOT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XHB 2) APA 3) MON 4) GE 5) XLP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) KMX 2) MRO 3) SPWR 4) IR 5) WHR
Charts: