Friday, November 04, 2016

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,088.97 -1.58%
  • DJIA 17,900.90 -1.34%
  • NASDAQ 5,050.53 -2.58%
  • Russell 2000 1,165.64 -1.57%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 31.80 -2.03%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 104.67 -3.64%
  • Wilshire 5000 21,519.10 -1.73%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,002.57 -1.80%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,006.64 -1.27%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 529.46 -1.79%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.2067 +.23%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,176.46 -1.93%
  • Transports 8,083.76 +1.0%
  • Utilities 653.73 -.72%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 78.73 -4.86%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 36.29 -2.28%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,127.17 -1.28%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 997.80 +.09%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 263,059 -1.59%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -385 -295
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 +162.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 403,586 -1.08%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,821,737 +.58%
  • Total Put/Call 1.41 +28.18%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.81 -73.96%
  • ISE Sentiment 75.0 +105.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.08 +5.1%
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.36 +37.12%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 71.01 +31.79%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.27 +10.55%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.67 +8.58%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 18,423.63 -3.37%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.677 Trillion +.99%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.455 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 23.6 -4.5%
  • AAII % Bears 34.3 +.7%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 182.50 -3.54%
  • Crude Oil 44.10 -9.33%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 138.87 -4.63%
  • Natural Gas 2.78 -10.79%
  • Heating Oil 143.31 -7.26%
  • Gold 1,305.0 +2.12%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 159.57 +2.22%
  • Copper 226.20 +3.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 176.33 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.0 USD/Ton +1.63%
  • Lumber 311.50 +3.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,174.38 -1.28%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.1% +100.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +7.3% -70.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1567 +5.37%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 129.13 +.02%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.90 -3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 36.2 -7.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.0 +11.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 26.0% chance of no change, 74.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/14
  • US Dollar Index 97.07 -1.35%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,541.79 +.10%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.69 -.31%
  • Yield Curve 99.0 unch.
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.78% -8.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.413 Trillion -.04%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.60 -10.66%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 359.0 -.03%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 19.35 +4.03%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 36.38 +7.05%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 94.90 +5.28%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 69.12 +3.16%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 749.95 unch.
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 237.23 +6.38%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.59 +.03%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69% -4.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 51.5 -9.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -46.0 -.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 80.29 +5.35%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 658.0 +10.15%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 100.21 +4.67%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 250.47 +5.45%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 140.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.347 Trillion +1.47%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 907.50 +.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 257,750 +4,750
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.54% +7.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 486.20 -1.18%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.6 +.7 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.6% unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $2.22/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 849.0 +1.8%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 752.92 +2.02%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 +14.29%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 273,421 -.77%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.8%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -1.6%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +4.8%
  • Networking +3.0%
  • Road & Rail +1.4%
  • Gaming +.9%
  • Airlines +.9%
Lagging Sectors
  • Alt Energy -3.3% 
  • Biotech -3.5%
  • Construction -3.6%
  • Social Media -3.6%
  • Telecom -4.5%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (32)
  • BRCD, IGNT, JBSS, MPG, LHCG, EGRX, IPHS, TMH, BG, BGFV, RCL, VVI, DF, ADM, LOPE, ZG, AMKR, NXTM, SHOO, ITRI, SQ, VRTS, EVHC, MCY, IM, WSTC, NGVT, CRUS, LION, VCRA, HLS and TNET
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (73)
  • KIM, SBAC, VAL, BFAM, HLF, QUOT, ATR, KATE, GTLS, FB, HCP, SHPG, ACIW, SABR, EGL, CERN, CALD, CACC, ABC, ABBV, XOXO, SFM, PLT, KFRC, GT, BGS, LB, THHH, FARO, HSTM, AN, LMNX, ZEN, SBRA, CRL, HURN, BSFT, TYPE, NSR, VRX, CAH, BEAT, GLT, FLT, INT, AGN, PAYC, ZBH, PBI, ONCE, MPW, AMGN, ACLS, CKH, FSLR, HZO, MTCH, LL, DNOW, PODD, PLOW, CSU, BKD, MCK, THS, DXCM, AXL, SYNA, INST, PMC, CTL, ANIP and DPLO
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.34 -3.22%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.79 +.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.63 +2.41%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.76 -2.84%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +158.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.39 +15.83%
  • NYSE Arms 1.02 +19.88
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.44 -.04%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 655.0 -1.95%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.14 +.92%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.44 +2.05%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 36.43 +.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 250.33 -1.15%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.59 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 51.50 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -46.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.07 -.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .37% unch.
  • Yield Curve 100.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $65.0/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.90 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 36.2 -7.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.0 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69% -2.0 basis points
  • 78.9% chance of Fed rate hike at Feb. 1 meeting, 80.6% chance at March 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -15 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Construction -1.0% 2) Gold & Silver -.7% 3) Foods -.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CSOD, CUBI, ABTL, HASI, PCTY, FLR, LILA, BNFT, MNST, UEIC, LILAK, QRVO, NPTN, ALR, CPSI, WEB, MDRX, LJPC, KAR, LOCO, QLYS, WLTW, AMED, MIC, SSNI, TSN, AXL, OII, MUR, GPRO, FSLR, SEM, QLYS, GEL, SAFM, PPC, NUS, FCE/A, SYMC, SSTK, FLR and WEB
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KRE 2) SCTY 3) SBUX 4) MGM 5) WYN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HSTM 2) LOCO 3) CHK 4) SAFM 5) NTAP
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +3.1% 2) Biotech +2.4% 3) Hospitals +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • UBNT, PODD, ALXN, AIRM, TRUE, ELY, FEYE, AGO, MHK, WTW, PI, BRS, CBM, TIVO, XLRN, LGF, EXEL, SCTY, NRG, ATSG, AMAG, ONCE, FOSL, ALNY, IPXL and VIRT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HZNP 2) DVA 3) HAIN 4) TSN 5) GPRO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TRUE 2) ELY 3) OLED 4) LVS 5) MSI
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: