Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -4.9% 2) Hospitals -4.4% 3) I-Banks -2.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CMCM, CSIQ, SYNA, CALA, KEM, CAR, EDIT, KATE, KEY, UCTT, BAC, HTZ and CALA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MBI 2) BK 3) FITB 4) PSX 5) ESPR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CAR 2) BAC 3) CPB 4) K 5) YHOO

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +.5% 2) Gold & Silver +.1% 3) Telecom +.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PLSE, JBSS, OSUR, WMGI, BIIB, MZOR, MAR, DB, BIS, WLB, MSI, LITE, CMG, SWIR, FNV, PAAS and LN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FRED 2) RSX 3) ETE 4) KMX 5) XBI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WMGI 2) CCL 3) HTBX 4) AFH 5) MSI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 39.6% of Issues Advancing, 53.6% Declining
• 84 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 57.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.1%
• Vix 11.1 -1.7%
• Total Put/Call .81 -24.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 +10.4%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 +10.75 basis points. (new series)
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 20.5 -5.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.28 unch. 
• S&P 500 futures +.16%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (GIS)/.71
• (LE)/.35
• (LEN)/.55
• (FDX)/2.62
• (NKE)/.53
• (SCS)/.23

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST 

• The 4Q Current Account Balance is estimated to widen to -$129.0B versus -$113.0B in 3Q. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's George speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, UK PPI report, Japan Trade Balance report, US weekly retail sales reports, (MAR) analyst meeting, (MDRX) investor day, Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference, Morgan Stanley Financials Conference and the BofA Merrill Industrials Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Tax Reform Worries, Oil Decline, Technical Selling, Hospital/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.33 +.44%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.37 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.94 +1.25%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.31 -.59%

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +26.1%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 +6.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.15 -34.73%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.86 +10.2% (new series)
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 391.0 +2.21%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.31 +8.31%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.47 -2.59%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.67 -18.45%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 205.16 unch.
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 135.93 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.75 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 42.5 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.25 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.26 +.30%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .73% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 118.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $91.49/Metric Tonne -.92%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.90 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.30 -2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.20 -4.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.01 -1.0 basis point
  
• 53.5% chance of Fed rate hike at June 14 meeting, 60.2% chance at July 26 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -136 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +33 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Hospitals -2.3% 2) Retail -1.2% 3) Utilities -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IPDN, FSLR, CAL and TGTX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DOW 2) ESPR 3) HUM 4) GME 5) BBT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RRTS 2) CAL 3) WAC 4) CAL 5) BG

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume