Sunday, August 06, 2017

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • China Confident Sanctions Will Bring N. Korea to Table. (video)
  • Bond Bears Balk at `Trade of Decade' as Emerging Markets Tested. The case against emerging markets is gaining steam in one corner of the bond world. Investors yanked out $680 million from JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s emerging-market debt exchange-traded fund last month, the biggest-ever flows reversal. Traders are concerned that after an 18-month rally, rising yields in developed markets from the U.S. to Germany could wreak havoc across emerging markets similar to the taper tantrum of 2013, when developing-nation currencies depreciated by about 14 percent and local bonds lost an average of 7.3 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
  • Asian Stocks Gain on U.S. Data; Yen Holds Drop. Asian equities advanced after strong U.S. hiring data on Friday bolstered American stocks. The yen was little changed Monday after sliding by the most in 1 1/2 weeks on Friday. Stocks in Japan, Australia and South Korea gained at the start of trading for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Friday for a ninth straight day to close at a record, while the greenback averted a fourth-straight weekly slide after government figures showed employers added workers at a solid clip and wage growth picked up in July. The S&P 500 Index ended one point below an all-time high to cap a weekly gain, while the Dow’s winning streak is the longest since February. The 10-year Treasury yield rose as the notes pared a weekly advance. Oil trimmed a weekly loss, while gold slumped. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.5 percent, while the S&P/ASX 200 Index in Sydney was up 0.8 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.3 percent. Contracts on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were slightly lower. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index added 0.3 percent.
  • Electric Car Boom Drives Rush to Mining's $90 Billion Heartland. A scramble by the lithium market’s biggest players to tie up supply of the high-tech metal is gathering pace in the 170-year-old heartland of Australia’s $90 billion mining industry. Rising Chinese demand for lithium-ion batteries needed for electric vehicles and energy storage is driving significant price gains and an asset boom in Australia, already the world’s largest lithium producer. The fast-developing hub is drawing investment and deals from global producers as well as chemical-to-battery manufacturers in China, the top consumer. 
  • Senate Republicans Nod at Bipartisan Push for Insurer Payments. Senate Republicans are expressing a willingness to consider a bipartisan approach to strengthening the individual insurance market under Obamacare, even as President Donald Trump is deciding whether to end payments for it. “We have got a destabilized market where insurance rates are going to go up 20, 30, 40 percent next year,” Tillis of North Carolina said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. “Anything that we can do to prevent that and the damage that that will have on people who need health care I think is something I have to look at.”
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com: 
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (DIS), (DAL), (SO), (VOYA), (HSBC), (CBS), (FOX) and (CMCSA). 
  • Had bearish commentary on (CMG).
Zero Hedge:
Washington Post:
  • Under Trump, gains against ISIS have ‘dramatically accelerated’. Nearly a third of territory reclaimed from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria since 2014 has been won in the past six months, due to new policies adopted by the Trump administration, a senior State Department official said Friday. Brett McGurk, the State Department’s senior envoy to the anti-Islamic State coalition, said that steps President Trump has taken, including delegating decision-making authority down from the White House to commanders in the field, have “dramatically accelerated” gains against the militants.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 18.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.79 +.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (BAH)/.47
  • (FDC)/.40
  • (IIVI)/.35
  • (TSN)/1.20
  • (CAR)/.54
  • (CBS)/.97
  • (MAR)/1.02
  • (THC)/-.18
Economic Releases 
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for June is estimated to fall to $16.0B versus $18.41B in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Japan Trade Balance report, Jefferies Industrials Conference, Cowen Communications/Infra Summit and the (BWA) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, yen weakness and mostly positive earnings outlooks offset technical selling, profit-taking and geopolitical concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, August 05, 2017

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • US Marines Missing After Aircraft Crashes Off Australia. Search and rescue operations were underway for three U.S. Marines who were missing after their Osprey aircraft crashed into the sea off the east coast of Australia on Saturday while trying to land. Twenty-three of 26 personnel aboard the aircraft have been rescued, the Marine base Camp Butler in Japan said in a statement.
  • Surface Calm in the S&P 500 Masks a Spate of Blowups. (video) On the surface, it was another up week for the S&P 500 Index. Underneath, things were a little more complicated. Consider a version of the S&P 500 that strips out market-value biases -- the “equal-weight S&P,” in which Apple Inc. matters as much as relative pipsqueaks like Garmin Ltd. and Macy’s. Analysts normally like to see the two indexes moving together, a sign the rising market is lifting all boats. That didn’t happen in the past five days. In fact, the equal-weighted version just posted its biggest weekly drop since May, and its worst week versus the regular S&P 500 all year. The reason: while enough megacap stocks rose to keep the S&P 500 afloat, single-stock blowups were far more common than single-stock rallies.
  • Toshiba to Cut Off Western Digital's(WDC) Future Supply of Chips. Toshiba Corp. took another stab at its U.S. joint venture partner, Western Digital Corp., saying it has no rights to new chip production that’s vital to the future of both companies. The latest escalation of the fight between the two centers on a new factory called Fab 6. Toshiba said it will build the plant without any participation from its U.S. partner, thereby cutting off Western Digital from chips made with the factory’s new technology. Western Digital inherited its stake in the joint venture when it bought SanDisk Corp.
  • United Technologies(UTX) Weighs Deal for Rockwell Collins(COL). Jet-engine manufacturer United Technologies Corp. is weighing an acquisition of aviation-equipment supplier Rockwell Collins Inc., according to people familiar with the matter, in a deal that would potentially rank among the largest ever in the aerospace industry.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:

Friday, August 04, 2017

Weekly Scoreboard^

 The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • S&P 500 2,474.98 +.16%
  • DJIA 22,071.30 +1.12%
  • NASDAQ 6,348.98 -.42%
  • Russell 2000 1,411.41 -1.19%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 37.99 -.13%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 137.91 -.28%
  • Wilshire 5000 25,594.15 +.03%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,226.85 -.01%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,152.97 +.26%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 565.93 -.60%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3417 -.17%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,525.56 +.03%
  • Transports 9,281.15 +.54%
  • Utilities 730.80 +.91%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 103.18 +1.16%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 43.84 +.29%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,208.80 -.12%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,000.00 +.11%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 298,487 -.02%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 249 -360
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 37.5 -35.9%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 423,338 +6.78%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,149,971 +.46%
  • Total Put/Call .94 +10.98%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.87 +485.0%
  • ISE Sentiment n/a
  • NYSE Arms .78 -48.93%
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.99 -5.05%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.98 +3.67%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.12 +.37%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.48 -.27%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,836.94 +.64%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.660 Trillion +.77%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.124 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 36.1 +4.8%
  • AAII % Bears 32.1 +32.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 180.68 -.98%
  • Crude Oil 49.50 -1.04%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 164.56 -.80%
  • Natural Gas 2.78 -4.85%
  • Heating Oil 164.68 -.08%
  • Gold 1,261.10 -.65%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 186.01 +.76%
  • Copper 288.50 +.17%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 265.67 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 74.12 USD/Ton +7.84%
  • Lumber 373.80 -.95%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,061.09 -2.71%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.7 +90.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +2.8% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0505 -5.25% 
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 121.94 -6.7%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 139.33 +.27%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -40.80 +3.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.3 +2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.20 +1.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 84.0% chance of no change, 16.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/20
  • US Dollar Index 93.59 +.26%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,619.99 unch.
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.86 +.17%
  • Yield Curve 91.0 -3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.27% +1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.427 Trillion +.02%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.87 +8.2%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 358.0 -3.13%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 5.50 +21.82%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 18.77 -5.96%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 41.78 -13.68%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.01 -5.05%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.41 +1.81%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 156.40 -4.51%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 140.53 +.03%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80% -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 24.0 +.5 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 +3.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 57.16 -1,19%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 471.0 +8.76%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 50.35 +.35%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 186.55 -2.27%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 147.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.544 Trillion +1.64%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 969.60 -.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 241,750 -2,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.93% +1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 406.60 -2.84%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.60 +1.0 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.3% +10 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.34/gallon +.04/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,023.0 +9.65%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 865.50 -1.02%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 280,350 +1.10%
Best Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Value +.3%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Growth -1.6%
Leading Sectors
  • Banks +2.5%
  • Homebuilders +2.3%
  • Steel +1.8%
  • HMOs +1.0%
  • Utilities +.9%
Lagging Sectors
  • Tobacco -3.1% 
  • Hospitals -3.9%
  • Gold & Silver -3.9%
  • Computer Hardware -4.4%
  • Coal -4.5%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)
  • DVAX, LL, SYX, STMP, HZN, SPR, UBNT, TNET, OMCL, PMC, AAN, LOPE, AGIO, SAM, CACC, FMC, COL, SERV, GNBC, DATA, IRTC, CGNX, NVTA and HYH
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (70)
  • SKT, INVA, UAA, DISCK, ETN, SBUX, FEYE, WMS, MLM, IDTI, SABR, RGR, VGR, EHTH, LTRPA, BECN, ENR, AXTA, OZRK, EGHT, MOH, GGP, HOLX, WAGE, TCO, GKOS, ICHR, MAT, NLS, ULTI, FLS, FARO, MO, TNC, ABC, AXL, GNMK, SBGI, TCAP, GT, THS, PE, ATRO, BOJA, INT, GLT, TBI, ICPT, PDFS, ECHO, NUVA, PXD, NCI, HURN, ELLI, PBI, QUAD, CASH, COHR, MULE, SSTK, HABT, MD, VRTV, TTMI, AMC, MTSI and MSTR
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