Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Telecom -2.9% 2) Healthcare Providers -1.1% 3) Education -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EVHC, CHKP, NVMI, PZZA, PBI, ITG, PAYC, FORM, OMI, DNOW, EA, MMYT, LITE, STE, MD, NYT, QSII, SSYS, ESIO, OMI and ANF

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SEAS 2) GLUU 3) FTR 4) CTL 5) DDD

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EVHC 2) DSW 3) ANF 4) SGRY 5) NYT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +1.7% 2) Energy +1.0% 3) Gaming +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HYH, EYE, MOD, SODA, DEL, MPO, EAT, BGS, WIRE, ZTO, CAA, AGN, PLT, ADMS, QLYS, EL, COMM, CVRR, X, RDWR, GRMN, VRSK, RYAAY, STRA, BLUE, CRC, JUNO, EAT, DVN,  QLYS, BLUE, W, ADMS, FSLR, WLH, RGR and CXO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EA 2) EVHC 3) FLEX 4) KHC 5) LB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BGS 2) EL 3) AIR 4) MOS 5) WCG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +32.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 57.5% of Issues Advancing, 39.2% Declining
• 189 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 45.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.6%
• Vix 9.9 -3.1%
• Total Put/Call .70 -19.5%
• TRIN/Arms .67 -49.1%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 -.75 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 15.75 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.53 -.03%.

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (AGN)/4.04

• (EAT)/.43

• (BG)/.74

• (CLX)/1.42

• (CTSH)/.95

• (EL)/.97

• (HMC)/64.41

• (GRMN)/.66

• (ICPT)/-3.41

• (TAP)/1.87

• (PBI)/.43

• (RDC)/-.40

• (STE)/.94

• (ZBH)/1.74

• (ALL)/.83

• (BOJA)/.17

• (CZR)/1.75

• (CF)/-.54

• (CAKE)/.60

• (EFX)/1.49

• (FB)/1.28

• (FLS)/.34

• (GPRO)/.02

• (HBI)/.60

• (KHC)/.82

• (MET)/.92

• (PRU)/2.71

• (QCOM)/.81

• (RGLD)/.37

• (SHAK)/.15

• (SYMC)/.43

• (TSLA)/-2.30

• (RIG)/-.06

• (WMB)/.19

• (YELP)/.22

Economic Releases 

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for October is estimated to rise to 196K versus 135K in September.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Manufacturing Index for October is estimated to fall to 59.4 versus 60.8 in September.

• The ISM Prices Paid for October is estimated to fall to 67.8 versus 71.5 in September.

• Construction Spending MoM for September is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.5% gain in August.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -877,250 barrels versus a +856,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,315,500 barrels versus a -5,465,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,130,140 barrels versus a -5,246,000 barrel decline prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.86% versus a +3.3% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at 1.0-1.25%.
  

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for October are estimated to fall to 17.5M versus 18.47M in September.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC policy update, China Manufacturing PMI report, Full Tax Bill released by Congress, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (COST)/(ZUMZ) monthly sales results, (F) October sales conference call, (FB)/(TWTR) testimony to Congress on Russia and the (BGG) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Earnings Outlooks, Oil Gain, Tech/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.2 -2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.48 +.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.09 -.86%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 15.37 +17.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 +35.4%
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -12.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.42 +28.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.37 -1.04%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 387.0 -1.39%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.18 -3.21%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.21 -2.55%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.63 +2.36%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 174.33 +.12%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 144.79 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 unch.

• TED Spread 28.75 -4.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -42.0 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.55 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.13% +3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 78.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $58.52/Metric Tonne -.39%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.20 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.0 -7.4 basis points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.50 +2.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 unch.
  
• 86.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 13 meeting, 87.2% chance at Jan. 31 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +14 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.3% 2) Biotech -.8% 3) REITs -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NLS, OHI, UA, SHOP, LL, AEIS, FDP, BHVN, SANM, QCOM, CSTM, CHGG, SHOO, FSLR, MYL, ADM, ALXN, FSLR, MAT and NLS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EXAS 2) FL 3) RCII 4) NBR 5) UA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) UAA 2) NTLS 3) SANM 4) JBSS 5) MAT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume