Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Asian Stocks Off to Weak Start as Caution Prevails. Stocks were modestly weaker in Japan, Australia and South Korea, while Hong Kong futures also tipped equities to fall. The S&P 500 Index fell for a third day, with trading volume more than 10 percent below the 30-day average, suggesting investors are shying away from big wagers. Treasury yields dropped on bets the Federal Reserve won’t accelerate the pace of interest-rate hikes. The New Zealand dollar fell after growth data missed estimates. The Topix index fell 0.2 percent as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.2 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.8 percent. S&P 500 Index future contracts rose less than 0.2 percent after the underlying benchmark declined 0.6 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed.
  • Senate Backs Bill Relaxing Post-Crisis Rules for Smaller Banks. The U.S. Senate passed legislation that would ease constraints on regional and community banks while mostly snubbing Wall Street, giving the finance industry its best chance in years of rolling back rules adopted in the wake of the 2008 crisis. The bipartisan bill crafted by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo frees smaller lenders from some of the toughest requirements of the Dodd-Frank Act, striking them from the ranks of banks deemed too-big-to-fail.
  • The Bitcoin Fad Is Fading. Suddenly, Bitcoin seems a bit boring. It might be hard to believe. But after the 1,400 percent rally of 2017, with wild swings along the way, the great crypto craze has cooled, at least for now. For the past month, Bitcoin’s price has stalled between $8,500 and $11,300 -- a minuscule range by its standards. And internet searches for “Bitcoin” have plunged, suggesting public interest has, too. “The general public is now realizing that this is not a risk-free, get-rich-quick, investment opportunity and general interest has since diminished,” said Lucas Nuzzi, a senior analyst at Digital Asset Research.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.50 +.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 11.25 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.46 -.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.33%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.25%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (DG)/1.48
  • (GCO)/2.09
  • (SUP)/.24
  • (ADBE)/1.44
  • (AVGO)/5.08
  • (JBL)/.62
  • (OSTK)/-.03
  • (ULTA)/2.78
  • (ZUMZ)/.90
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 15.0 versus 13.1 in February. 
  • The Import Price Index MoM for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.0% gain in January.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for February is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.8% gain in January.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 228K versus 231K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1903K versus 1870K prior. 
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for March is estimated to fall to 23.0 versus 25.8 in February. 
10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for March is estimated at 72.0 versus 72.0 in February.
1:00 pm EST
  • Baker Hughes US Rig Count.
4:00 pm EST
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for January.
Upcoming Splits
  • (AFL) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The EU car registrations report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg Feb. US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (ZUMZ) monthly sales report and the BofA Tech/Media/Telecom conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversnig Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Mid-Term Election Worries, Less Economic Optimism, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.19 +5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.93 -.44%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.79 +.39%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.48 +3.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 +24.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.04 +19.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.06 -24.21%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.96 +1.36%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 398.0 +.17%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.32 +5.51%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 142.25 +4.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.20 +2.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 117.0 +1.66%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.23 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.25 -1.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.25 -3.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.25 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.46 +.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.75% +4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 55.25 -3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 70.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.14%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.60 -4.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.50 -4.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.10 +6.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -192 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • U.S. Launches WTO Challenge Against India Over Export Subsidies. The U.S. launched a challenge at the World Trade Organization against India’s export subsidies, arguing the programs give Indian companies an unfair advantage. The challenge covers Indian programs including the Merchandise Exports from India Scheme, the Export Oriented Units Scheme, and the Electronics Hardware Technology Parks Scheme, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Wednesday in a statement. “These export subsidy programs harm American workers by creating an uneven playing field on which they must compete,” Lighthizer said in a statement.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge: