Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 44.6% of Issues Advancing, 52.1% Declining
• 23 New 52-Week Highs, 74 New Lows
• 40.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.7%
• Vix 20.7 -1.8%
• Total Put/Call .91 -22.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.23 +140.8%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.5 -.75 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.25 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.43 +.05%.
• FTSE 100 futures +1.16%.
• S&P 500 futures +.34%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.44%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (FDS)/2.06
• (MKC)/.91
• (LULU)/1.27
• (RH)/1.54
• (SCVL)/.09
• (SONC)/.15

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for January is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.64% gain in December.

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March is estimated to fall to 22.0 versus 28.0 in February.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March is estimated to rise to 131.0 versus 130.8 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• (BRO) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, German Retail Sales report, $35B 5Y T-Note auction, US weekly retail sales reports, Needham Healthcare Conference and the (NVDA) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Less US High-Yield/European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.62 -13.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.51 +1.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.92 +1.28%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.83 -5.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +29.6%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.23 -20.1%

• NYSE Arms .70 -44.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.59 -1.27%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 445.0 +1.46%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.75 +1.18%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 -.75 basis point
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 13.30 -1.66%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 143.75 -3.31%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.58 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.0 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 55.75 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 +2.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.43 +.49%

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.74% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 56.75 +.25 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 63.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.97%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.8 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.20 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.60 -.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 unch.
  

• 80.9% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 82.1% chance at August 1 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -156 open in Japan 

• China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +87 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/retail/biotech/medical/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging markets shorts

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Tobacco -1.2% 2) Oil Service unch. 3) Airlines +.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BHVN, GSM, LFIN, ARNA, CMCM, KBH, HCLP and ATNX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BHVN 2) AOBC 3) T 4) LFIN 5) MAT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LFIN 2) PTGX 3) GIFI 4) LKM 5) NBY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +3.7% 2) Semis +2.6% 3) Banks +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DBX, IEFA, KANG, FINL, USG, BDC, SGH, USMV, TVPT, EFAV, IUSG, SNN, UBIO, EZU, NEWA, BKI, NOBL, PDP, MDB, AAXJ, AGO, GAIA, CRM, UTX, EXP, SGH, INNT, IMGN and LOW

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EXC 2) MGM 3) CCL 4) PAYX 5) FB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INTC 2) UTX 3) ORCL 4) ACN 5) JLL

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.4% Below 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 78.0% of Issues Advancing, 19.2% Declining
• 6 New 52-Week Highs, 76 New Lows
• 35.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.2%
• Vix 21.9 -11.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.09 -29.2%
• TRIN/Arms .89 -29.5%