Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlooks, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Restaurant/Utility Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.7 -3.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.03 -.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.11 -.69%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.17 -2.31%

• ISE Sentiment Index 146.0 +21.7%
  

• Total Put/Call .89 -8.3%

• NYSE Arms .72 -32.65%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.26 +.83%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 363.0 -.81%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.58 +1.49%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 253.0 +6.75 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.80 -1.55%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 169.43 -3.08%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.18 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 33.75 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 +.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.51 +.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.0% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 31.0 -1.25 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 69.30 USD/Metric Tonne +2.36%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.0 -12.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.50 -5.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.10 +8.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 -1.0 basis point
  
• 90.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 97.1% chance at Dec. 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +25 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +62 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -.9% 2) Alt Energy -.8% 3) I-Banks -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• VREX, TSRO, SYMC, WIFI, SHAK, SGMS, SRCL, SEDG, IMMR, FND, GTT, WU, AMN, TVPT, DATA, PI and RARE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GPRO 2) DNR 3) RLGY 4) SHAK 5) TSRO

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSRO 2) LUNA 3) ASPN 4) SYMC 5) BXG

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Foods +2.8% 2) Gold & Silver +1.6% 3) Computer Services +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SKY, SWIR, BMS, NGVC, CTRL, ACIA, ATRO, ADMS, ELY, HASI, WING, CATM, UEIC, INSM, MED, CBPX, TTWO, TCS, HUD, OTEX, KHC, MDRX, ADNT, NUS, CC, BNFT, HMSY, WATT, WAIR, ITT, POST, KHC, INSM, GBT, BRKR, INSM, DNOW, TNDM, ACLS, IBM, CPB, CORT, ESIO, NSIT, LJPC, SJM, BOJA, UMRX, AMC, CERN, RLGY, BOFI and SSNC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KRE 2) ATI 3) SGMS 4) SYMC 5) TSRO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MED 2) ACIA 3) ELY 4) MUS 5) TTWO

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.8% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 54.2% of Issues Advancing, 42.4% Declining
• 93 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 52.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.3%
• Vix 11.8 -2.9%
• Total Put/Call .77 -20.6%
• TRIN/Arms .68 -36.4%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• May Meets Macron as She Charts an 11-Week Path to a Brexit Deal.

• Central Banks Take the Spotlight as Economic Anxiety Lingers: Eco Week.

• Asian Stocks Nudge Higher; Japanese Yields Steady: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks edged higher at the end of a volatile week, after optimism for technology shares lifted U.S. equities and overshadowed ongoing trade tensions. Japanese bond yields steadied ahead of a closely watched Bank of Japan bond purchase operation. Shares in Japan, South Korea and Australia opened with modest gains, while equity futures signaled Hong Kong and China will recoup some of Thursday slide. The S&P 500 rallied as Apple Inc.’s market value reached $1 trillion. The dollar maintained gains and the yield on 10-year Treasuries ticked back below 3 percent. The yuan steadied after its recent slide. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.1 percent as of 9:10 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.2 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• How Apple Overcame Fits and Flops to Grow Into a Trillion-Dollar Company.

• U.S. Farmland Values Hit a Record Despite Trade Fears.

Wall Street Journal:

• White House Aims to Freeze Fuel Standards for Cars.

• CBS Scandal Gets Silent Treatment on Earnings Call.

Fox News:

• Colorful Manafort judge warns Mueller team case could tank without key witness. 

• WH spokeswoman lashes out at media abuse in fiery clash with CNN's Acosta.

CNBC: 

• The $717 billion defense bill just made its way to Trump's desk. Here's what the Pentagon is poised to get.

• The Trump administration is headed for a gigantic debt headache.

• After-hours buzz: GPRO, AIG & more. 

• Goldman says U.S. may base tariff decisions on whether China's currency keeps falling.

Zero Hedge:

• Socialism: So Bad Women Are Willing To Be Sexually Abused To Escape It.

• July Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: All Eyes On Wages.

• Superbugs Are Becoming Resistant To Alcohol Disinfectants.

• Entire Police Force Quits In This Massachusetts Town.

• Hysteria Over 3D-Printed Guns - Misconceptions Vs. Reality.

• Maxine Waters Hit With FEC Complaint After Daughter Rakes In $750,000 From Campaign Funds.

• Tim Cook Rescues US Stocks As Trump Crushes China, Turkey.

Business Insider:  

• The Trump administration is backing down on one of its tariffs, and it's a big win for the newspaper industry.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.25 +1.5 basis points. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 11.0 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.30 -.09%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.52%

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (AXL)/1.09

• (CBOE)/1.03

• (DISH)/.70

• (ITT)/.78

• (LYB)/2.90

• (TM)/216.13

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for June is estimated to widen to -$46.5B versus -$43.1B in May.

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to fall to 192K versus 213K in June.

• The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to fall to 3.9% versus 4.0% in June.

• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in June.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for July is estimated to fall to 58.6 versus 59.1 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report and the Eurozone Services PMI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Outlooks, Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.4 -5.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.79 -.57%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.32 +3.7%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.95 -3.32%

• ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 +14.2%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.08 +6.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.11 -2.28%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.83 +.78%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 366.0 +1.20%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.42 +3.59%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 245.25 +14.0 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.97 -.99%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 173.87 +.97%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.14 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 33.50 +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.50 -1.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.37 -.57%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.0% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 32.25 unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 66.72 USD/Metric Tonne +.48%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.40 +.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.60 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.60 -8.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point
  
• 90.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 97.1% chance at Dec. 19th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +78 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +39 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long