Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.0% Above 100-Day Average
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 55.0% of Issues Advancing, 41.2% Declining
• 105 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 63.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.6%
• Vix 16.3 +.1%
• Total Put/Call .83 +5.1%
• TRIN/Arms .81 +9.5%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.50 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.0  -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.80 +.03%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.03%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ANTM)/3.83
• (T)/.88
• (ADP)/1.45
• (BA)/-1.58
• (EAT)/.95
• (CP)/4.67
• (GLW)/.44
• (DOW)/.73
• (GD)/3.44
• (GE)/.18
• (HES)/-.48
• (IR)/1.42
• (KNX)/.51
• (MA)/1.87
• (MCD)/1.96
• (NSC)/2.28
• (PGR)/1.13
• (RCL)/1.43
• (SMG)/-1.21
• (SWK)/2.19
• (TROW)/1.93

After the Close:

• (ALGN)/1.40
• (ADM)/.73
• (CRUS)/1.14
• (FB)/2.53
• (ILMN)/1.58
• (LRCX)/3.14
• (LVS)/.78
• (MSFT)/1.27
• (PYPL)/.83
• (NOW)/.88
• (TSLA)/.61
• (URI)/5.31
• (VAR)/1.20

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated at -$65.0B versus -$63.2B in Nov.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in Nov.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.8% decline in Nov.

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.2% gain in Nov.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at 1.5-1.75%.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, Japan loan data report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (GS) investor day and the (KMI) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Oil Bounce, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.1 -12.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.74 +.18%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.57 -1.05%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.4 -4.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +43
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -23.8%

• NYSE Arms .71 -64.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.78 -4.39%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 634.0 +1.04%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.50 -2.29%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.25 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -.33%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 191.93 -4.52%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.75 +.06we%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 -1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 25.0 -2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.76 +.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% +2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve .18 -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 84.15 USD/Metric Tonne -1.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.3 +2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.10 -1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.6 unch.

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 +2.0 basis points
• 7.5% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 15.2% chance of cut at April 29th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +125 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -766 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +4 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -4.7% 2) Gold & Silver -2.6% 3) Education -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HCAT, HOG, GPK, MTSI, MKC, JNPR, LEA, MAG, MMM, PFE, BYND, GWB, INSP, BWA, LOPE, DNLI, VIVO and LRN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ITB 2) LQD 3) MMM 4) HOG 5) EWJ

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LOPE 2) MMM 3) PFE 4) BYND 5) DDD

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +2.2% 2) Semis +2.1% 3) Airlines +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• XLRN, LAUR, CIT, GGG, IIPR, WHR, PHM, HFC, TPX, AOS, PII, SPCE, SQ, OPB and FCX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FSCT 2) WHR 3) BKR 4) DUK 5) HOG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) XLRN 2) ALV 3) POL 4) BRO 5) PII

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 74.7% of Issues Advancing, 22.1% Declining
• 87 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 62.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.2%
• Vix 16.5 -9.5%
• Total Put/Call .65 -35.6%
• TRIN/Arms .78 -60.6%