Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Virus Data Volatility Complicates End in Europe’s Lockdowns

• Moscow Tightens Lockdown With Digital Permits as Virus Spreads.

• N.Y. Deaths Top 9,000; Italy, France Cases Slowing: Virus Update.

• Fauci Says U.S. Reopening Could Start ‘In Some Ways’ in May.  

• Make-or-Break Moment in Virus Fight Could Happen This Week.

• U.K.’s Johnson Out of Hospital as Parliament Set to Return.  

• Saudi Arabian Stocks Drop as Oil Talks Drag On: Inside EM. 

• U.S. Stock Futures Retreat; Crude Oil Swings. Stocks looked set to for a mixed start to the week as investors mulled a slowdown in new coronavirus cases and readied for the start of earnings season. Oil futures swung after a historic deal to cut output. U.S. equity futures declined in early Asia trading and Japanese contracts retreated. Many markets remained closed for holidays. The euro steadied after France, Germany, Italy and Spain reported a slowdown in new cases. Canada’s dollar opened higher after OPEC+ agreed to cut 9.7 million barrels a day from global crude output -- just below the initial plan of 10 million. The yen ticked higher. S&P 500 futures fell 1.3% at 7:37 a.m. in Tokyo. Nikkei 225 futures fell 1.5%.

• OPEC+ Ministers Meet in Race Against Market to Clinch Deal.

• Oil Traders Squeezed as Glut Fills Storage at Mideast Hub.

• Lee: The U.S.-Saudi-Russia Oil Cease-Fire Won’t Last.  

• Risks Too Numerous to Bear as Traders Tip-Toe Back From Easter.  

• Smithfield Foods Idles Sioux Falls Plant Amid Virus Concerns. Smithfield Foods Inc. will idle its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, pork-processing facility, which accounts for 4% to 5% of U.S. production, the company said in a statement Sunday. The move comes after state officials reported more than 200 cases of Covid-19 for plant employees. Smithfield, owned by China's Hong Kong-listed WH Group, originally planned to shutter the South Dakota facility for three days.

• World’s Biggest Maker of Sneakers Asked to Halt Vietnam Ops.

• Kashkari Says U.S. May Face 18 Months of Rolling Shutdowns.

• Investment Bank Consolidation Likely Amid Virus Fallout: Report.  

• U.S. Recession Model at 100% Confirms Downturn Is Already Here.

Wall Street Journal:

• Lawmakers Seek New Ways to Cover Workers’ Paychecks.

• Looming Earnings Season Offers Next Test for Stock Market.

• Heart Conditions Prove Especially Dangerous for Covid-19 Patients.

• Amid Pandemic, China Offers Tax Breaks for Exports of Wild Animals .

• The Kids Are Playing Basketball Through a Lockdown .

• Coronavirus Creates Uncertainty for Texas Cattle Dealers.

• New York’s Hospital Systems Each Losing Up to $450 Million a Month.

Fox News:

• FDA chief says US near virus apex, but is cautious about moving too fast.

• SEE IT: Thunderbirds honor coronavirus workers in Vegas flyover.

• Tornadoes strike multiple states as South braces for severe weather.

CNBC:

• Fauci expresses ‘cautious optimism’ coronavirus outbreak is slowing, US could start reopening in May.

• WHO envoy says coronavirus ‘will stalk the human race for a long time to come’.

• OPEC and allies finalize record oil production cut after days of discussion.

• How China could use this moment to charge ahead with its geopolitical agenda.

• Disney World will furlough 43,000 union workers during coronavirus shutdown.

Zero Hedge:    

• The Price Of EU Membership: Healthcare Rationing For Elderly In Italy, Spain

• Welcome To India's Hunger Games.

• Russia Sees Over 2,000 New COVID-19 Infections In Biggest Ever Single-Day Spike.

• "The Cut Is Just 4.3MMbpd"- Goldman Throws Up Over OPEC+ Deal, Sees Oil Dropping Back To $20.

• Drone View Of Manhattan Under Lockdown, Now A Ghost Town.

• Oil & Stocks Crash Into Red After Big Opening 'OPEC+ Deal' Gains Evaporate.

• Calls For Central Planning Amid COVID-19 Panic Are Like The Calls For The "War Socialism" Of Old.

• When The World Stopped - Stunning Scenes From A Global Lockdown.

• "Down The Rabbit Hole" - The Eurodollar Market Is The Matrix Behind It All....

• UK Deaths Pass 10K As Millions Of Christians Celebrate A 'Canceled' Easter On Lockdown: Live Update.

• Courier With Coronavirus Samples Crashes On I-195 In Massachusetts.

• China Begins Mass Deletion Of Online Research On Coronavirus Origins.

• Farmers Battered By Food Glut As COVID-19 Shifts How America Eats.

• Watch Dozens Of Ambulances Line Up Outside Moscow Hospital As Russian COVID-19 Cases Soar.

Business Insider:

• 'You think you're free, then it comes back': Doctors and patients explain what the coronavirus 'second-week crash' feels like.

• Coronavirus immunity: 8% of recovered patients in one study didn't develop antibodies at all

• The coronavirus pandemic is pushing more people online and will forever change how Americans shop for groceries, experts say.

• Rampant shipping delays and limited stock amid the coronavirus outbreak reveal why e-commerce hasn't defeated physical stores just yet.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.50 +2.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.25 n/a.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.24 -.02%.

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -1.2%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.3%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• (WTFC)/1.19

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg. 
• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on coronavirus fears, earnings jitters, technical selling, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, global recession worries and oil weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving bearish signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Historic World Oil Talks Enter Third Day as Trump Seeks Deal.  

• Africans, U.S. Say Blacks Mistreated in China’s Guangzhou.  

• Spain, Germany See Drop in New Virus Deaths as Lockdowns Remain.

• U.S. Testing Capacity in ‘Ballpark’ for May Reopening, Czar Says.

• Cuomo Says No Decision Yet on Timetable for NYC Schools.

• As Credit Markets Rebound, Neediest Borrowers Are Left Behind.

• U.S. Leads World in Deaths; Pentagon Funds Masks: Virus Update,

• The Secret Weapon Giving Mexico Power in the Oil Price War.  

• U.S. Presses Saudis as Negotiators Wrestle Over Oil Deal.

• Villagers Turn Away Relatives as Virus Scare Grips Rural India.  

• Mester Says Fed ‘Likely Not Done’ in Steps to Aid Economy.

• Singapore Closes Beaches, Plans Floating Shelters to Check Virus.

• U.K. Reports 917 New Coronavirus Deaths; Total Rises to 9,875.

• Nurses, Lauded for Virus Efforts, Find Their Tires Slashed.  

• Governors Request $500 Billion For Budget Shortfalls From Virus.  

• Global Leaders Try, And Fail, to Corral Outbreak: Weekend Reads.

Wall Street Journal:

• Coronavirus Conundrum: It Hits Some Hard, Others Hardly at All.

• Politicizing Coronavirus Science.

• Officials Plead for Public to Observe a Locked-Down Easter.

• How Apple and Google Plan to Track the Coronavirus Through Your Phone.

• With America at Home, the Streaming War Is Hollywood’s Ultimate Test.

• Tax Muddle Hovers Behind Small-Business Loan Program.

• Deterring China on a Coronavirus Budget.

• Some Churches Fight to Open on Easter Despite Coronavirus Shutdowns.

• French Doctor Leads Charge for Treating Coronavirus With Antimalarial Drug.

CNBC:  

• New York City public schools will remain closed for rest of academic year.

• Coronavirus live updates: Italy to set up ‘immunity passports,’ outbreak swamps NYC 911 system.

• The S&P 500 has rebounded 25% in less than three weeks. Here’s what’s going on.

• Airline cash grants offered by federal government could force carriers to take on more debt.

• How restaurants plan to survive widespread layoffs from the coronavirus pandemic.

• Record oil production cut hangs in the balance as G20 meeting concludes with no specifics.

• The Fed is on ‘wartime’ footing and still may be asked to do more.

• JPMorgan Chase to raise mortgage borrowing standards as economic outlook darkens.

• Macy’s taps Lazard to bolster finances as coronavirus saps sales, sources say.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (DIS), (GLD) and (MGM).

MarketWatch.com:   

• Bank earnings preview: As industry profits get cut in half, the winners will emerge next year.

Fox News:

• Trump has declared major disaster in all 50 states, first time in history.

Zero Hedge:           

• "This Should Trouble Us Deeply" - Chilling Documentary Maps Out Likely Origin Of COVID-19

• UK Press 'Names & Shames' Prominent Professors For Promoting 'Conspiracy Theories' About COVID-19.

• The Fed's Balance Sheet: The Other Exponential Curve.

• "Everything That Is Wrong With America, In One Image".

• Tesla Furloughs Half Of Its Entire US Sales And Delivery Staff.

• "Can't We Have A Pandemic Without Everyone Getting Offended?" - Maher Slams Libs Triggered By "Chinese Virus" Label.

• Insiders "Bought The Dip" In Record Numbers.

• Trump Doubles Down On Threat To "Hold" $500 Million From WHO After Tedros Gets Testy.

• Is The "Debt Chasm" Just Too Big For The Fed To Fill?

• Three National Polls Show Majority Of Americans Agree With Trump Calling Coronavirus "Chinese".

• African Locust Outbreak Returns; Second Wave Approximately 20 Times Larger.

• British Suicide Rate Soars To Record High.

• Is It Time For The WHO's Pro-China Chief To Resign?

• Singapore Oil Trading Giant On Verge Of Collapse After Banks Freeze Credit Lines.

• FBI Admits "Central Evidence" To Spy On Trump For Russia Collusion... Was Russian Disinformation.

• World Faces "Devastating Health Consequences" As Global Condom Shortage Strikes.

Business Insider: 

• University of Oxford vaccinologist eyes September vaccine arrival

• More than 370,000 people have recovered from COVID-19. Here's what we know about coronavirus survivors.

• Coronavirus immunity: 8% of recovered patients in one study didn't develop antibodies at all

• Zooming with coronavirus patients: Doctors at Stanford are using iPads to adapt telehealth to the coronavirus pandemic.

• 'Pandemic drones' could single people out in a crowd for coughing, sneezing, or running a temperature, developers say — here's how they work.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline. 

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

The Guardian: 

• China clamping down on coronavirus research, deleted pages suggest.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Italy Extends Lockdown Until May in Signal to European Business.

• Taiwan Accuses Chinese Trolls of Fomenting Racism Spat With WHO.  

• Trump Eyes ‘Biggest Decision’ On Reopening as Aides Urge Caution.

• Pence, CDC Head Lay Out Virus Criteria to Reopen U.S. Economy.  

• Two-Thirds of Severe Covid-19 Improved on Gilead’s Remdesivir.

• Trump Aides Say May 1 Target Unlikely as Pence Charts Reopening.

• Democrats, GOP in Standoff on Small Business Stimulus Funds.

• N.Y. Deaths Dip; Gilead Drug Shows Early Promise: Virus Update.

• Global Oil Deal Elusive as Saudis Suffer String of Setbacks.

• U.S. Inflation Slowed Sharply in March While Core Index Fell.  

• Paying Up to 14% Rates, New Debt Deals Are Distressed From Start.  

• Los Angeles County to Extend Stay-Home Order to May 15.

• Delta Cut to Junk by Fitch as 35,000 Workers Take Leave.  

• ‘No Sail Order’ for Cruise Ships Extended by 100 Days.  

• How the Pandemic Wiped Out Oil Demand Around the World.

• Record Bankruptcies Predicted in Next Year as Unemployment Soars.  

• These Charts Show Global Economy’s Dive Into Deep Recession.

Wall Street Journal:

• Virus Toll in Senior Facilities Is Greater Than U.S. Reported.

• ‘I’m Sorry I Can’t Kiss You’—Coronavirus Victims Are Dying Alone.

• China Tightens Customs Checks for Medical-Equipment Exports.

• Health Authorities Roll Out New Tests to Gauge Spread of Covid-19.

• The Fed’s ‘Main Street’ Mistake.

• Small-Business Loans Face Delays.

• Trump, Putin, Saudi Crown Prince Scramble to Fix Oil Markets.

• Coronavirus Crisis Threatens to Split an Already Fractured EU.

• College Students Demand Coronavirus Refunds.

• Coronavirus Study Finds Twice as Many Infections in Austria.

CNBC:   

• Trump says he’s not going to reopen economy ‘until we know this country is going to be healthy’.

• Mexico throws OPEC’s historic oil production cut into doubt ahead of G-20 meeting.

• Europe approves $590 billion in virus stimulus but fails to fix differences over joint debt.

• Coronavirus live updates: HHS begins $30 billion in aid, British prime minister moved out of ICU.

• Boeing considering 10% payroll cut after coronavirus pandemic shuts down plane manufacturing.

• JPMorgan now forecasts economy contracting by 40%, unemployment to reach 20% in April.

• Lawmakers urge Mnuchin to stop debt collectors from seizing direct payments.

• Nancy Pelosi says it’s unclear when US economy can reopen — ‘We could have a depression’.

• Small business layoffs jump 1,000% in March.

• Trump administration seeks ban on China Telecom in US citing ‘unacceptable’ national security risks.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

MarketWatch.com:

• More than half of renters say they lost jobs due to coronavirus: ‘They could face housing situations that spiral out of control’. 

• Gold may soon soar to a record $2,000 says analyst: we ‘borrowed from the future, and there is not enough economy to pay it down’.

Fox News:

• Obama administration cut PPE stockpile, but Biden team points to GOP 'budget squeeze'.

• SLIDESHOW: See ordinary Americans uniting against coronavirus crisis.

Zero Hedge:           

• Global Coronavirus Death Toll Nears 100k As Thousands Die In Britain & America: Live Updates.

• Look At How Ridiculously Wrong All The COVID-19 Models Were.

• Here Are All The ETFs That Will Be Bought By The Federal Reserve.

• 'Breadlines' Erupt Across America As Lockdowns Crush America's "Working Poor".

• Car Sales In China Crash 40.8% YoY In March.

• This Curve Will Never Flatten Again: Fed Balance Sheet Hits $6.1 Trillion, Up $2 Trillion In 1 Month.

• "Everyone Is Blameless": Missed Rent & Mortgages Could Spell Real Estate Catastrophe For 'Months Or Years'.

• New Poll: Democrats Want To Ditch Joe Biden For Andrew Cuomo.

• Google/Apple JV's Dystopian COVID-19 Tracker Could Be Straight Out Of Orwell's 1984.

• NYC Resorts To Burying Dozens Of Coronavirus Victims In "Mass Grave" On Hart Island.

• Beware The Balance Sheet Evolution After A Decade Of Reckless Financial Engineering.

• "That's Pretty Terrible, It's A Death Signal": Cliff Assnes' AQR Loses $43 Billion In 2020.

• Mexican Standoff Continues: AMLO Claims US-Mexico Oil Deal At G-20, OPEC+ Denies Knowledge.

• Coronavirus Devastates Italy: Is It The Result Of Globalism And Free Trade?

• US, European Cities Turn To "Talking Drones" From China To Enforce Social-Distancing.

• Sweden Resorts To Storing Bodies At Ice-Rinks As COVID-19 Deaths Soar.

• Japan To Spend Billions Relocating Production Out Of China.

• Sailor From Virus-Stricken Carrier Found Unresponsive As Over 400 Crew Infected.

• The Day The Fed Nationalized The Bond Market: The Complete Summary Of Everything The Fed Did Today.

• Free Markets Are Dead: Fed To Start Buying Junk Bonds, High Yield ETFs.

• Pennsylvania, Missouri Join Growing List Of States Cancelling Rest Of Spring Semester, CD: Live Updates.

• Dr. Fauci: I Don't Think We Should Shake Hands "Ever Again".

• Media On 'Jihad' Against Anti-Malaria COVID-19 Treatment Since Trump Endorsed Use: AG Barr.

• House GOP Demand Answers From WHO Over Relationship With China

• "Let Them Fail" - Billionaire Explains To Gobsmacked CNBC Host How Capitalism Is Supposed To Work.

• Gold Knows "There Are No Temporary Measures, Just Permanent Lies".

• Gold Soars Along With Everything Else As Fed Ends Capital Markets As We Know Them.

Business Insider:  

• Coronavirus patients are dying on ventilators. It's leading to a debate over the best way to get oxygen into their damaged lungs.

• More than 10% of American workers have filed for unemployment in just 3 weeks as coronavirus puts the economy in a deep freeze.

• The Fed has temporarily lifted Wells Fargo's asset cap.

• Some 'Animal Crossing' players in China are using the game to protest government policies, and now the Chinese government is banning the game.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline. 

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.