Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Diminishing Coronavirus Fears, Global Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Energy/Airline Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.5 -6.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.33 +.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 -3.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.33 -4.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +19.0 points

• Total Put/Call .98 +2.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.45 +98.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.20 -5.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 1,429.98 -1.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.50 -5.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 225.25 +5.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.50 -1.84%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 326.26 -7.31%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.57 -.26%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 75.0 -4.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 18.0 -4.25 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  121.0 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.74 +1.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 44.0 unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 80.88 USD/Metric Tonne -.98%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -117.30 -12.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -239.80 -32.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.1 +7.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.14 -1.0 basis point
• n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +659 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +2.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -2.1% 2) Gold & Silver -1.2% 3) Pharma -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KTB, JNPR, ACA, QTS, CHRW, FEYE, GFF, AKAM, RDUS, AMD, HAS, INSG, INSW, TBIO, AM, APY, VIR and DSSI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HBI 2) CRC 3) HTZ 4) ASHR 5) CAR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) F 2) AMD 3) JNPR 4) AKAM 5) ALKS

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +5.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +11.0% 2) Energy +6.6% 3) Gaming +6.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EAT, DIN, NCLH, CHEF, WW, ENVA, HRI, SPR, LSCC, CAKE, ZYXI, CCL, PAYC, NXST, CCL, PLAY, CALX, BLMN, AAL, UAL, JBLU, SPG, PCTY, DAL, SMPL, HOG, COF, FLGT, SAVE, MKSI, BA, GOOG, IMMU, MIDD, DSPG, PETQ, GILD and LUV

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LUV 2) XHB 3) PK 4) COF 5) CAR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MPX 2) BA 3) DAL 4) MGM 5) AXP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +49.0% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 88.1% of Issues Advancing, 11.1% Declining
• 15 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 12.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.6%
• Vix 31.2 -7.2%
• Total Put/Call .91 -5.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.41 +93.2%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:             

• Australia Stokes China Tensions With Call for Virus Probe.

• How China Is Attempting to Prevent a Second Wave of Infections.   

• China’s Massive Banks Are Facing a $42 Billion Dividend Trap.  

• U.K. Unemployment Could Hit 1980s Highs as Jobs Disappear.

• Asia Stocks Set to Start Mixed; Treasuries Climb: Markets Wrap. Stocks in Asia were poised for a mixed start on Wednesday after a volatile U.S. session that saw equities slip and Treasuries climb amid a slide in consumer confidence and as more companies withdrew earnings guidance. The dollar weakened. Futures in Hong Kong dipped and those in Australia rose, while Japan is shut for a holiday. S&P 500 contracts were little changed after declines overnight, when the Nasdaq Composite was pulled down by Facebook, Amazon.com and Netflix amid data showing U.S. consumer confidence dropped in April to the lowest since 2014. Treasuries rose. Meantime, U.S. oil markets were roiled again as investors bail on near-term contracts for fear of negative prices. Futures on the S&P 500 Index slid 0.1% as of 6:20 a.m. in Hong Kong. The gauge fell 0.5% on Tuesday. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.1%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.4%.

• Oil Falls After Major Index Bails Out of June WTI Contract.   

• China Growth Revival, Expansion Ends, QE’s New Ground: Eco Day.  

• Note to Powell: Four Big Questions From Bond Markets This Week.

• Trump Ties Virus Aid for States to Action on ‘Sanctuary’ Cities.

• NYC Reopening in May Would Be a ‘Miracle’; N.J. Several Weeks Away.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump to Take Executive Action to Keep Meat-Processing Plants Open.

• Virus Cases in U.S. Surpass One Million as Lockdowns Ease.

• ‘A Bargain With the Devil’—Bill Comes Due for Overextended Airbnb Hosts.

• The Coming GOP Spending Split.

• Mark Zuckerberg Asserts Control of Facebook, Pushing Aside Dissenters.

• Even for Companies With Business From Coronavirus, the Picture Is Mixed at Best.

CNBC.com:

• Confused by the tax implications of the CARES Act? Here’s a breakdown.

• Trump says US will be able to run 5 million coronavirus tests per day ‘very soon’.

• Coronavirus updates: US cases top 1 million, lawmakers urge airlines to make face masks mandatory.

• Wall Street’s ‘incredibly strong month’ is based on ‘hope,’ Jim Cramer warns.

• The US coronavirus death toll surpasses American casualties from the Vietnam War.

• Starbucks shares fall after coffee chain warns US cafe closures to deal hefty blow to earnings.

• Ford projects adjusted pretax loss of $5 billion in the second quarter.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alphabet, AMD, iRobot and more.

• Best Buy will start to reopen to customers with appointments for in-store consultations.

• How Domino’s beat Papa John’s and Pizza Hut in India’s pizza war.

• Only about half of Americans are confident they can pay full rent in May: Survey.

• Surge in snack sales is not just ‘pantry loading,’ Mondelez CEO says after earnings beat.

Fox News:

• EXCLUSIVE: Tara Reade blasts Clinton for backing Biden, 'enabling a sexual predator'.

• Tara Reade calls for release of Biden's Senate records: 'Why are they under seal?'

• McConnell says next coronavirus aid bill 'won't pass' without this included.

MarketWatch.com:          

• AMD earnings hit target, but annual forecast trimmed as business spending slows.

Zero Hedge:      

• The Twilight-Zone Economies Evolving From COVID-19. 

• Survey Finds 50 Million Americans Have Lost Their Job In Past 6 Weeks.

• Has The Recovery Started Already? What Real-TIme Coronavirus Activity Trackers Are Showing.

• YouTube Censors Viral Video Of California Doctors Criticizing "Stay-At-Home" Order.

• Why Illinois Is Broke: 109,881 Public Employees With $100,000+ Paychecks Cost Taxpayers $14B.

• Trump Says 'COVID Reparations' Coming: US Will Bill China At Least $160 Billion.

• MIT: What If COVID-19 Immunity Doesn't Last Long?

• US Intel Officials Believe 45,500 Corpses Were Incinerated In One Fortnight In Wuhan.

• WTI Extends Intraday Rebound After Smaller-Than-Expected Crude Build.

• Google Jumps After Beating On Revenue, Despite Warning Of "Significant Slowdown" In March Ad Revenue.

• Kyle Bass "Surprised" By Market's April Rebound, Says US Economy "Has A Very Long Grind Back".

• More Than 1 Million Americans Infected By Coronavirus As Trump Says "Worst Of Outbreak Is Over": Live Updates.

• Bonds Bid Amid Crude Chaos As Fauci Frightens FANGs.

Business Insider:     

• In a South Korean call center, 44% of workers on one floor got the coronavirus. Their seating chart reveals how easily the virus spreads in offices. 

• America's biggest mall operator surges 15% after revealing plan to reopen 49 malls this weekend.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.25 -4.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 48.25 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.08 +.09%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.16%.

• S&P 500 futures +.23%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.67%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMT)/1.98

• (ANTM)/6.44

• (AZN)/.92

• (ADP)/1.89

• (BA)/-1.46

• (BSX)/.31

• (EAT)/.53

• (CCL)/-1.66

• (CME)/2.23

• (FDP)/.53

• (GD)/2.56

• (HAS)/.54

• (HUM)/4.69

• (LH)/1.95

• (MA)/1.75

• (NSC)/2.24

• (NOC)/5.49

• (OSK)/1.26

• (OC)/.53

• (RCL)/-.48 

• (R)/-.85

• (SHW)/3.89

• (VLO)/-.18

• (YUM)/.67

After the Close:

• (AFL)/1.10

• (ALGN)/.88

• (ADM)/.56

• (CCI)/1.41

• (EBAY)/.72

• (FB)/1.71

• (KLIC)/.18

• (MSFT)/1.25

• (PPC)/.17

• (QCOM)/.80

• (RJF)/1.46

• (NOW)/.96

• (TDOC)/-.35

• (TSLA)/-.21

• (RIG)/-.28

• (URI)/2.53

• (VRTX)/1.84

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• 1Q GDP is estimated to fall -4.0% versus a +2.1% gain in 4Q.

• 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to fall -3.6% versus a +1.8% gain in 4Q.

• 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.3% gain in 4Q.

• 1Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a +13% gain in 4Q.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for March is estimated to fall -13.6%f versus a +2.4% gain in Feb.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at 0.0-.25%.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (CMI) fireside chat could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.