Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 26.7% of Issues Advancing, 68.2% Declining
• 61 New 52-Week Highs, 65 New Lows
• 72.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,640.0 -174.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,348 -.39%
  
• Vix 17.3 +7.5%
• Total Put/Call .88 +1.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.9 +41.2%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• China Embraces High-Stakes Taliban Relationship as U.S. Exits.    
• Gensler Warns of Chinese Company Risks After SEC Crackdown.
• U.S., Taliban in Talks to End Airport Chaos: Afghanistan Update.  
• Yuan’s Global Use Faces a Test as Xi’s Reforms Rattle Markets.
• Asian Stocks Waver, Dollar Firm Amid Virus Caution: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Slumps With Delta Variant Surge Threatening Global Demand.  
• Fed September Taper, China Growth Falters, Slower Japan: Eco Day.
• Covid Hospital Deaths Hit Previous Peaks in Hot-Spot Areas.
• NYC, San Francisco Lead Cities in Demanding Proof of Vaccination.  
• Druckenmiller Exits Citi as Family Offices Reveal Stock Picks.  
• Michael Burry of ‘Big Short’ Bets Against Cathie Wood’s ARKK.  
• Leveraged Bet on Homebuilders Is Surging in Hot Housing Market.

Wall Street Journal:

• Kabul Under Taliban Control: Checkpoints, Beatings, Fear.
• Biden Defends Afghanistan Exit Amid Criticism.
• Chaos Grips Kabul as Taliban Take Charge and Afghans Try to Flee.
• Afghans in America Try to Save Family Members as Options Dwindle.
• Tesla’s Autopilot System Is Subject of Safety Probe.
• Fed Weighs Ending Asset Purchases by Middle of 2022.
• Pfizer, BioNTech Seek FDA Clearance for Covid-19 Booster.
• Companies Are Hoarding Record Cash Amid Delta Fears.
• Afghanistan Reveals All the President’s Weaknesses.
• Black Lives Matter Poisons a Young Athlete’s Mind.
• Biden to Afghanistan: Drop Dead.
• Follow Your Nose to Herd Immunity.
• Biden’s Chamberlain Moment in Afghanistan.
• Forget Beating Covid-19. Europe Is Preparing to Live With It.
  

Fox News:

• Biden points fingers for Afghan horror despite campaign vow to take responsibility as president.
• Clay Travis: If ‘experts’ were this wrong about Afghanistan, ‘how can you trust them on border, COVID’?
• Leon Panetta calls Afghanistan a 'Bay of Pigs' moment for Biden: 'Our credibility right now is in question'.
• WH reveals it’s willing to transfer power to Taliban — with conditions.
• Afghan American women’s grim message to President Biden.

NY Post: 

• US companies riddled with members of Chinese Communist Party: Devine. Boeing(BA), Qualcomm(QCOM) and Pfizer(PFE) are just three US companies that have employed dozens of CCP members in their Chinese facilities, the database reveals. 
  

CNBC.com: 

• Charts suggest infrastructure winners like Nucor can go higher, Jim Cramer says.
• S&P 500 doubles from its pandemic bottom, marking the fastest bull market rally since WWII.
• Feds will ration water from Colorado River amid historic drought.
• Fed’s Eric Rosengren backs tapering in the fall but no rate hikes until job market improves. 
  

MarketWatch.com:       

• SNAP benefits will increase to an all-time high — here’s how much more the average family will receive each month.

Zero Hedge:

• China Mocks "Embarrassed, Arrogant" US Forces While Praising "Friendly" Relations With Taliban.
• US Officials Livid Over Botched Afghanistan Withdrawal, Say Military Was Rebuffed For Wanting Larger Role In Evacuations.
• Biden Blames Everyone But Himself For Failure In Afghanistan.
• This Is What Hedge Funds Bought And Sold In Q2: Complete 13F Summary.
• Fauci Downplays New COVID-19 Vaccine Study.
• Vacuous Vaccine Hype: White House Press Secretary Claims The Shots Have Saved "Tens Of Millions Of People's Lives".
• Snyder: We're Rapidly Becoming A "1984 Society" & It's Only Going To Get Worse.
• JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets.
• China Dumped US Treasuries For 4th Straight Month, Most Since 2016.
• S&P Rallies 100% Off Pandemic Lows; Shrugs Off China Data, Delta Doubts, and Kabul Chaos.

Newsmax:

• Trump Slams 'Grossly Incompetent Way' Biden Is Exiting Afghanistan.
• McConnell: Biden Ignored Warnings on Taliban, 'and Owns It'.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden Refuses to Take Questions From Reporters After Blaming Trump For His Afghanistan Disaster – Immediately Takes Off to Camp David! (VIDEO).
• “I Was Appalled” – Former CIA Analyst Blasts Joe Biden’s Speech – ‘We Sent Biden Plan After Plan on How to Evacuate These People – NOBODY LISTENED!’ (VIDEO).
• To the Victor Go the Spoils: Taliban with Helicopter Filled with Weapons Take a Ride Over Herat, Afghanistan (VIDEO).
• Heartwrenching: Female Afghan Reporter Breaks Down During Pentagon Press Briefing on Future for Women Under the Taliban in Afghanistan (VIDEO).
• President Trump – NOT Happy After DISASTER In Afghanistan: “The Corrupt 2020 Presidential Election Got Us Here.”.
• CNN Reporter in Kabul: “They’re Just Chanting ‘Death to America’ But They Seem Friendly at the Same Time”.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Moves to Indoctrinate School Children With ‘Xi Jinping Thought’.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.25 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.0 -.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.72 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,797.0 -16.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.75 +.64%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.11%.

• S&P 500 futures -.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (HD)/4.41
• (SE)/-.49
• (WMT)/1.57
  

After the Close:

• (A)/.99
• (CREE)/-.24
• (JKHY)/.92
• (LZB)/.57
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for July is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.6% gain in June.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.3% gain in June.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for July is estimated unch. versus a +1.1% gain in June.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in June.
• Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to rise to 75.7% versus 75.4% in June.
• Manufacturing Production for July is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.1% decline in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories  for June is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.5% gain in May.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Aug. is estimated at 80.0 versus 80.0 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Employment Change, Eurozone GDP report, weekly US retail sales reports and the Deutsche Bank Transport Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Virus Mandate/Lockdown Worries, Afghanistan Pullout Debacle, Oil Decline, Commodity/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.5 +6.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,767.0 -117.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.81 -.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.5 +1.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0  -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -6.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.8 +35.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.54 +.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 449.0 +1.09%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.22 +.56%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.29 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 159.82 +.32%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.41 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 unch.

• TED Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.75 +1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.75 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 105.0 -8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 161.05 USD/Metric Tonne -1.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.6 -3.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.7 -2.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.1 -8.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 279 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +16/100K people
• 52% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +3.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +122 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -41 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -2.5% 2) Alt Energy -2.3% 3) Oil Service -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GRWG, SOFI, CARA, AXSM, PING, PTRA, TSP, ORMP, HYFM and OSCR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SESN 2) BBWI 3) BKR 4) EWT 5) RUN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SESN 2) MNTS 3) NIO 4) APPH 5) JD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +1.1% 2) Medical Equipment +.9% 3) Healthcare Providers +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• COLL, TVTX, RDNT, SONO, KRA, AMRS, HCC TPB, EOLS, CCRN, FUV, CMBM, DDS, OM, BJ, ACRE and DOCS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TVTX 2) PXD 3) FANG 4) D 5) DHI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) COLL 2) AQSP 3) LIVE 4) SONO 5) DXPE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 36.5% of Issues Advancing, 58.9% Declining
• 82 New 52-Week Highs, 58 New Lows
• 73.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,733.0 -151.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,319 -.38%
  
• Vix 16.8 +8.5%
• Total Put/Call .89 -3.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.9 +41.2%