Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +75.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 25.8% of Issues Advancing, 71.7% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 698 New Lows
• 36.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,579.0 -302.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,327.0 +1.6%
  
• Vix 34.0 +9.5%
• Total Put/Call .99 +4.2%
• TRIN/Arms .97 -2.0%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• China Opposes Russia Sanctions, Calls U.S. Actions ‘Immoral’.
• Kremlin Says Separatists Ask Putin to Come to Aid Against Ukraine.  
• Ukraine Asks West to Impose More Sanctions on Russia Quickly.
  
• Zelenskiy Urges Russia to Hold Off on Escalation: Ukraine Update.
• China’s Boost to Coal and Steel Alarms Climate Researchers.  
• Trudeau Repeals Emergency Powers After Ending Truck Protests.
  
• Stocks Fall, Bonds Rise as Ukraine Tension Deepens: Markets Wrap.    
• Oil Rises as Separatists’ Call for Help Worsens Ukraine Tensions.
• Europe Is Desperate for Aluminum and Traders Are Getting Creative.
• Gold Holds Advance on Rising Haven Demand Amid Ukraine Tensions.
• Wheat, Soybeans Hit Fresh Highs Amid Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
• Rout Across Tech-Stock Complex Sends Nasdaq to Bear Market Brink.  
• Blackstone Hedge Fund Trio Resigns After Leadership Changes.  
• Ford CEO Says Automaker Is ‘Under-Earning’ on EVs and Gas Models.  
• LA Is Paying $600,000 Apiece for Units to House Homeless People. 
• Twitter Is Selling $1 Billion of Junk Bonds to Fund Share Buyback.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine Prepares for War, Urges Citizens to Leave Russia.
• Latest Updates on the Conflict.
• Russian Moves Stir Global Inflation Concerns.
• With Nord Stream 2 Freeze, Germany Moves to Cut Russian Gas Reliance.
• Microsoft’s New Security Chief Says It Is Time to Take Shelter in the Cloud.
• Carvana Under Pressure as Pandemic Surge Slows.
• Some Companies Ditch Annual Raises and Review Worker Pay More Often.
• Rise in Non-Covid-19 Deaths Hits Life Insurers.
• Lumber Trading Is So Hot That It Almost Never Happens.

Fox News:  

• Diplomats hold another rare emergency meeting as Ukraine's president makes emotional plea.
• Biden drops the hammer on Russian pipeline, reimposes sanctions he WAIVED less than a year ago.
• Biden's approval nose dives in deep blue state as inflation takes hold.
  

CNBC.com:

• The market has adjusted its views of how the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
• Google relaxes mandates, opens amenities as it prepares for workers to return.
• Allbirds shares fall as sneaker retailer reports widening losses, despite 23% jump in sales.
• EBay stock sinks after the company gives disappointing guidance.
• Goldman’s consumer push showing ‘real growth,’ expected to more than double over 2 years, CEO says.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: EBay, Booking Holdings, Allbirds and more.

MarketWatch:    

• Fed’s Daly backs more aggressive pace of rate hikes given the inflation outlook.

Zero Hedge:

• Trudeau Revokes Emergency Powers Act. 
• Airlines Issued "Do Not Fly" Alert Over Much Of Ukraine.
• Russia Speaks Out Against High Oil Prices As Brent Nears $100. 
• Mapping The De-'Squaw'-ing Of America's Derogatory Place Names.
• CBS Earns Blistering Ratio For Trying To Blame US Inflation On Ukraine Situation.
• USPS Shuns Biden's EV Dreams With Massive Gasoline-Powered Mail Truck Purchase.
• The Fed's Problem: "It's All About The Money".
• New Amtrak Tunnel Between NJ And NYC Gets The Federal Funding "Go Ahead".
• Saudis Warn Of Oil Shortage Shock, Blame "Net Zero" For Underinvestment.
• A "Tragedy Of Capitalism"? BLM Faces Growing Questions Over Millions In Donations.
• Separatist Leaders Issue Formal Request For Russian Army To Repel Ukrainian "Aggression".
• "Economic Injustice": 72% Of PPP Money Went To The Top 20% Of Earners In America.
• WTI Shrugs Off Huge Crude Inventory Build, Cushing Draws Continue.
• Amid Violent Crime Wave, NYC Starts To Relocate Homeless People In Subway System To Shelters.
• JPMorgan Publishes Terrifying Take On What Ukraine Crisis Will Do To Commodity Prices.
• Lead Prosecutors Abruptly Quit Trump Investigation.
• US Rejects Israeli PM's Criticism Of Iran Nuclear Talks As Deal "A Few Days" Away.
• Biden Wants US To Be Police Of The World But Can't Even Deal With The Violence In Our Own Streets.
• Commodities Soar As Ruble Routed, Tech Wrecked, & S&P Enters Correction.

Newsmax:   

• David Perdue: Trump Endorsement ‘Means the World’ in Georgia Governor’s Race.
• Rep. Comer: Biden's Sanctions Will Hurt US 'as Much If Not More'.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• While the World Focuses on Ukraine, Globalists Like the World Economic Forum’s Klaus Schwab Charge Ahead.
• BREAKING: Prosecutors Leading Manhattan DA’s Probe Into Trump Abruptly Resign Over ‘Serious Doubts’.
• BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Dr. Shiva Releases Scientific Study Results Revealing Maricopa Counted 200,000+ Ballots with Mismatched Signatures that Were Never Reviewed in 2020 Election.
• Board Member of Large German Health Insurance Company Sounds the Alarm: Side Effects of COVID Vaccines Much Higher Than Official Reports.
• “Biden’s Jihad Against Fossil Fuels is Financing Vladimir Putin’s Military Adventures” – Larry Kudlow on FOX Business.
• ALERT: Wisconsin Speaker Vos and Senator Bernier Are Now Pushing Legislation to Give a Head Start to Election Cheating — They Want to Pass It Today!
• Texas Governor Orders Child Abuse Investigation Into Children Receiving Transgender Treatments.
• Children Allowed in Metaverse’s Virtual Reality Strip Clubs — Researcher Posing as 13-Year-Old Faced Grooming and Rape Threats.
• Adults in Chicago No Longer Required to Wear Masks to Bars, but Kids Will Still Have to Wear Them All Day at School.
• Georgia SOS Brad Raffensperger Secretly Hired Salesforce.com to Manage Voter Rolls on the Cloud – Lawmakers Must Speak Out and Resist This Dangerous Move!
• French Tennis Star Gael Monfils Blames Booster Shot For His Health Problem Resulting in Withdrawal from Tournament.

The Epoch Times:

• DOJ Terminates Program Targeting Chinese Espionage Amid Accusations of Racism.

Twitter: 

• @AHershman10 - The only countries that have strong Covid mandates are the ones with Young Leaders of the WEF. 
• @the_ragex - At 4 a.m. so far: 1. There are reports of increased artillery fire in the Mariupol direction. 2. There are reports that public service documents are allegedly burned in Kramatorsk. 3. It is reported that the protection of military facilities in Odessa has been strengthened. (video)
• @The_Real_Fly - Ukraine's Security Service (SBU): Russia has purchased 45,000 body bags. “I think they [the Russians] will bury them according to ancient Russian tradition, just in the field or in nameless graves.”
• @VigilantFox - The CDC Withheld Their Data In the Name of Not Promoting Vaccine Hesitancy. Dr Malone: "There's gonna come a time soon where there are legal ramifications [for] these physicians and scientists... We now have a smoking gun about CDC... This meets the criteria of scientific fraud." (video)
• @ElectionWiz -  'Hero To Zero': Daily Caller documentary tells stories of first responders, teachers persecuted for refusing COVID-19 vaccine.
  
• @Caucasuswar -  Footage from tonight of Russian artillery units on the move towards the Ukrainian border followed by military transportation trucks. (video)
• @aginnt - The US Freedom Convoy. (video)

GETTR:

• @DiscloseTV - NEW - Board member of large German health insurance company comes forward: Side effects of COVID vaccines much higher than reported by official agencies. "According to our calculations, we consider 400,000 visits to the doctor by our policyholders because of vaccination complications to be realistic to this day. Extrapolated to the total population, this value would be three million," says BKK board member Andreas Schöfbeck in a report by WELT. The new data is an "alarming signal," adds Schöfbeck. NEW - WHO selects Deutsche Telekom to "standardize the issuing of QR codes" and to create a global vaccine passport.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 760,101 Reports(+6,620 from prior week) Through February 11th, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.25 +1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 55.75 +1.25 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.28 -.02%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,904.0 +26.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.4 +2.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.46%.

• S&P 500 futures -.7%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.80%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BABA)/16.05
• (AEP)/.92
• (AMT)/2.30
• (AMWD)/.87
• (BUD)/.80
• (CARS)/.42
• (DISCA)/.85
• (DISH)/.87
• (ELAN)/.17
• (EXC)/.78
• (FCN)/1.16
• (IRM)/.64
• (MRNA)/9.81
• (NTES)/6.74
• (NEM)/.77
• (NKLA)/-.42
• (PZZA)/.71
• (PWR)/1.41
• (RY)/2.73
• (TNK)/-.80
• (W)/-.70

After the Close:

• (MDRX)/.32
• (ADSK)/1.44
• (BYND)/-.68
• (SQ)/.22
• (CVNA)/-.82
• (COIN)/2.16
• (DELL)/1.95
• (EOG)/3.17
• (INTU)/1.82
• (MTZ)/1.28
• (OXY)/1.10
• (SFM)/.30
• (VMW)/1.97
• (ZS)/.11
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to .16 versus -.15 in Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 235K versus 248K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to  rise to 1580K versus 1593K prior.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Jan. is estimated to fall to 803K versus 811K in Dec.

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 25.0 versus 24.0 in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, German GDP report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (PII) investor meeting could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine War Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Fed "Behind the Curve" Concerns, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.4 +5.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,938.0 -130.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.90 -.26%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 -1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.4 +8.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 -11.5%

• NYSE Arms .86 -18.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.24 +1.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.17 -.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.98 +1.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 171.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.18 -.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 246.60 +6.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.23 -.48% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 1,041.31 +15.5%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 14.5 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  106.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 51.29 -.14%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.31 -.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .35% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 41.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 138.80 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.5 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 65.2 -2.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.1 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.54 +7.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 186 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -3/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -70.6%(-1.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -85 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -131 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Papers -4.1% 2) Homebuilding -2.7% 3) Airlines -2.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FRG, VRSK, AMD, PCOR, AAP, ROST, PLAB, MIDD, BCRX, TRU, TJX, M, ICHR, DFIN, BURL, ALB, DH, KTOS, UPST, TOL, BLKB, BAND, VMEO, SHO, TSLA, PLCE, TREE, PTCT, FSLY, ROAD, TOST, NMRK, SSYS, EXAS, PLYM, RCII, SATS, DOCN, RDFN, FIVN, ABNB, WK, DAN, MAXR, BLD, RIVN, ETD, S, HFC, FRSH, CFLT, LTH, TXG, PUMP, ZETA, LIND, CWH, SWTX, MAX, CSGP, NOTV, PRG, SOVO, RNG, BCC, ASAN and VRT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HTA 2) OSTK 3) NSC 4) LOW 5) TJX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) KOD 2) VRT 3) ASAN 4) DWAC 5) WKHS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.3% 2) Gambling +1.3% 3) Energy +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TEN, SKIN, REGI, OSTK, RRC, LL, BTU, LXU, EPR, DKNG, TPX, OMI, RLMD, CDNS, TAP and OLPX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) OSTK 2) TJX 3) RSX 4) BSX 5) MULN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OSTK 2) SKIN 3) REGI 4) LL 5) QNGY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 37.7% of Issues Advancing, 58.0% Declining
• 19 New 52-Week Highs, 190 New Lows
• 38.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,016.0 -52.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,185.0 -.51%
  
• Vix 30.7 +6.6%
• Total Put/Call .88 -15.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 -1.9%