Saturday, March 12, 2022

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (EQNR), (FMC), (UBER) and (JAMF).

Fox News: 

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:        
NewsMax:
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

Friday, March 11, 2022

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,229.17 -1.8%























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

Indices
  • DJIA 33,101.64 -1.4%
  • NASDAQ 12,933.21 -2.6%
  • Russell 2000 1,989.64 -.23%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 70.31 -2.3%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 229.74 -1.9%
  • Wilshire 5000 42,846.64 -2.0%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,541.33 -2.3%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,564.36 -1.4%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 748.17 -5.3%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,247.58 +.23%
  • NYSE Technology 3,289.86 -3.3%
  • Transports 15,276.25 -.6%
  • Utilities 981.25 -.82%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 69.9 +4.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.74 -4.1%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,462.22 -.06%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 926.31 -.34%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 461,654 -.68%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -661 -179
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -36.0 -6.0%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 368,663 +8.7%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,028,476 -1.4%
  • Total Put/Call .98 +3.2%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.43 -17.4%
  • ISE Sentiment 101.0 +5.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.40 +37.7
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,745.0 +338.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.18 -5.5%
  • Volatility(VIX) 30.0 -8.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.8 -4.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.3 -5.9%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.9 +5.8%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,144.91 +.41%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.576 Trillion -.7%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -2.673 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 24.0 -21.1%
  • AAII % Bears 45.8 +10.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 291.32 -2.9%
  • Crude Oil 109.19 -5.1%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 330.38 -6.1%
  • Natural Gas 4.77 -3.7%
  • Heating Oil 341.21 -9.3% 
  • Newcastle Coal 360.0 (1,000/metric ton) -12.2%
  • Gold 1,987.33 +.8%
  • Silver 25.85 +.6%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 602.30 -1.4%
  • Copper 461.90 -6.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 635.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 157.5 USD/Metric Tonne -6.0%
  • Lumber 1,159.20 -11.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,577.67 +.6%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 795.0 USD/Short Ton +12.8%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +0.5% +.5 percentage point
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -1.2% -1.5 percentage points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 20.0% +33.3%
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 5.3 -.9%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 436.74 n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.88 +.17%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.1 -4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.5 -5.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -3.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 95.9%(+3.9 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point hike, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +50.0-75.0 basis point rate hike on 3/16
  • US Dollar Index 99.11 +.59%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,712.83 -.26%
  • Bitcoin/USD 38,780 -.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.79 +1.95%
  • Yield Curve 27.75 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.0% +25.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.873 Trillion +.08%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.62 +7.7%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 142.14 +.02%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.36 -4.0%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 222.85 -2.3%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.5 -17.6%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.88 -2.9%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,658.60 +107.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.8 -3.0%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98% +27.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 43.75 +16.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.25 +13.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 74.79 +.9%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 333.0 -5.8%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 91.58 -3.1%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 341.94 +6.0%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 108.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 76.25 +.25 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 12.6 unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,039.0 +1.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 231,250 +.22%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 37.98 +3.3% 
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 4.32% +11.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 502,500 +8.5%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +13.1% -1.0 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -12.2% -5.6 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $79.7M -40.3%
  • Nationwide Gas $4.32/gallon +.48/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,704 +25.9%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,388.59 n/a
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 -10.0%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 140.08 -21.6%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 266,307 +1.7%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,184,044 +19.3%
  • US Covid-19:  83 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22  -36/100K people from prior week
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -86.4%(-6.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Value +.3%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Growth -3.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +11.5%
  • Alt Energy +8.0%
  • Education +3.8%
  • Gold & Silver +2.8%
  • Construction +2.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • Airlines -4.6%
  • Social Media -5.4%
  • Medical Equipment -6.0%
  • Gambling -6.5%
  • Tobacco -8.5%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
  • AMPH, SHLS, TDW, IPI, TWI, LAND, SD, MRTN, ASIX and LBRT
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (35)
  • ZETA, NAPA, SBUX, WES, ZM, NVST, PODD, CRCT, HCP, S, W, CTRN, RNG, OLLI, TWLO, GDRX, AVLR, EXFY, SFIX, POSH, ASAN, NTRA, AI, ZUMZ, TTD, RIVN, TDOC, LOCO, UPST, ETSY, LTH, ACMR and LAW
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine War Escalation Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.3 -3.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,792.0 +28.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.64 +.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.9 +1.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.9 +1.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .96 +4.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 +85.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.34 +1.78%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 415.54 +.7%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.92 +.57%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 160.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.65 +.94%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 344.80 +2.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.8 -.28% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,704.0 -.9%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 42.75 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.25 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  109.0 +1.0 basis point
  • iShares CMBS ETF 50.71 -.21%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.40 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .38% +2.25 basis points
  • Yield Curve 25.25 -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 157.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.3 -1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.5 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -4.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 +10.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 83 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.0%(n/a) of 1/14 peak -na/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -86.4%(-na percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -127 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -223 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -36 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/commodity sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Social Media -3.5% 2) Alt Energy -2.6% 3) Digital Health -2.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LIND, EOLS, ZETA, CQPO, PODD, REVG, NAPA, TWKS, HRMY, FORG, SGFY, SBGI, W, NTRA, ROCC, CTRN, PCOR, S, EBIX, CEIX, RNG, FRSH, AMTX, SFIX, TWLO, ASAN, HCP, WHD, BTU, POSH, BROS, EXFY, TDOC, AI, RIVN, ZUMZ, TTD, GDRX, BMBL, UPST, ETSY, LOCO, ACMR, BLNK, LTH, NCNO, BRBR, LAW, DOCU and ISPO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DOCU 2) CHTR 3) BSX 4) ORCL 5) ULTA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DIDI 2) RLX 3) TLYS 4) DOCU 5) BLNK
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +.8% 2) Telecom +.7% 3) Restaurants +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BBAI, AMPH, SHLS, TDW, IPI, LZ and TNL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HYMC 2) ETRN 3) MFA 4) ALTO 5) IFF
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LAZY 2) AMPH 3) WULF 4) RGF 5) ETRN

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +17.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
  • 42.6% of Issues Advancing, 53.8% Declining
  • 39 New 52-Week Highs, 158 New Lows
  • 36.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 45.3% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,808.0 +47.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,872.0 -.85%
  • Vix 29.4 -2.5%
  • Total Put/Call .89 -3.3%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.67 +135.2%