Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Global Supply Lines Brace for ‘Menacing’ Economic Storm to Widen.
  
• NATO Allies Are Split on Whether They Should Talk to Putin.
• Ukraine Update: Kyiv Sets Out ‘Minimum’ Goal From Russia Talks.  
• World Moves From Shortages to Possible Glut of Covid-19 Vaccines.
  
• Traders Ready for More BOJ Bond Intervention, Big Yen Swings.
• The Yen's Plunge Is a Dilemma of Japan's Own Making.
  
• Stocks Climb Amid Oil Slide as Traders Await Talks: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Extends Losses on China Demand Concerns Ahead of OPEC+ Meet.
• U.S. Army Proposes to Cut Its Troop Numbers Below 1 Million.  
• Fed Factory Surveys Show Pickup in Inflation Expectations.
  
• Soaring Prices Are Changing the Way People Eat.  
• GameStop Rides Meme-Stock Revival for Longest Rally Since 2010.  
• Austin Airport Warns of Jet-Fuel Shortage as It Sees a Rush of Travelers.

 Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine Counterattacks to Retake Territory Ahead of Talks.
• Latest Updates: Biden Says Putin Remark Wasn’t Call for Regime Change.
• Secret World of Pro-Russia Hacking Group Exposed in Leak.
• U.S. to Probe Tariff-Dodging Claim Against Chinese Manufacturers.
• Ukraine War Increases Risk of Debt Defaults by Developing Countries.
• U.S. Healthcare Spending Growth Slowed in 2021 After Covid-19 Surge.

CNBC.com:

• The bond market is flashing a warning sign a recession may be coming.
• Biden’s 2023 budget would hike taxes on the ultra-rich and corporations, boost defense spending.

 MarketWatch:  

• Apple stock just accomplished something for the first time in more than a decade.
  
• FedEx founder Fred Smith steps down as CEO.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden DOJ Kills Trump-Era Program To Catch Chinese Spies.
• Days After Biden Hailed NATO As "More United Than Ever", A Split Emerges Over Talking To Putin.
• California State University Drops SAT Test As 'Too Stressful'.
• Unprecedented Permanent Security Forum Opens With Israel & 4 Arab States United Against Iran.
• Dumbphone Sales Are Soaring As People Revolt Against "Overwhelming" Smartphones.
• Republicans Plan To Investigate Hunter Biden Laptop Story: Issa.
• Soaring Cotton Prices Could Mean Clothing Is About To Get More Expensive.
• Record Pentagon Budget Includes $6.9BN For European Deterrence Initiative & $682M To Assist Ukraine.
• "I'm A Wartime General" - Mayor Adams Pledges To Tackle Crime Wave That Has Turned NYC Into A "Laughingstock".
• "Gradually, ...Then Suddenly!".
• More Massive MOVEs.
• Federal Pressure On Big Tech To Censor COVID-19 'Misinformation' Violates Constitution: Lawsuit.
• Calm Before The Storm?
• Oil, Gold, Yen, & Yield-Curve Slapped Lower; Ruble & Crypto 'Rock'et Higher.

Newsmax: 

• Disney Vows to Fight Florida's Parental Rights Law; 'Should Never Have Been Signed'.  
• Irpin Mayor: Ukrainians Retake Captured City.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• China Is Not the Only Country to Face Financial Woes In the Property Management Arena, Now Commercial Property in the US is Uncertain.
• “You’re Asking Me to Do What?” – Madison Cawthorn Talks about the ‘DC elites’ Having Orgies and Doing Cocaine (VIDEO).
• Steve Cortes Warns Inverted Yield Curve Shows Deep Biden Recession Around the Corner.
• New Study by John Lott Jr. Reveals Biden Received More than 225,000 Excess Votes in 2020 Election.
• New Jersey Middle School Forced 12 yr Olds to Learn About Transgender Hormone Therapy without Parental Consent.
• VIDEO: Chuck Grassley Reveals Financial Links Between the Chinese Communist Party and Hunter and James Biden on Senate Floor — And Brings the Receipts.
• Biden’s Secretary of State Blinken has Family Ties with George Soros.

The Epoch Times:

• Pompeo: US Should Label China as ‘Adversary’ Rather Than ‘Competitor’ in Recognition of Growing CCP Threats.

Twitter: 

• @IntelRogue - More video of Russian forces in Mariupol with a BRM-1K and a tank. (video)
• @bennyjohnson - Kayleigh McEnany EXPOSES what Hunter Biden secret laptop is REALLY about— this will give you CHILLS. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 795,782 Reports(+7,159 from prior week) Through March 18th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.5 -1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.68 -.04%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,360.0 -12.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.1 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.71%.

• S&P 500 futures -.1%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ASO)/1.43
• (CONN)/.48
• (MKC)/.62
  

After the Close:

• (CALM)/.83
• (CHWY)/-.08
• (LULU)/3.27
• (MU)/1.98
• (PRGS)/.85
• (PVH)/2.00
• (RH)/5.59
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.2% gain in Dec.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.46% gain in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March is estimated to fall to 107.0 versus 110.5 in Feb.
• JOLTS Job Openings for Feb. is estimated to fall to 11000K versus 11263K in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, 7Y T-Note auction, Australia retail sales report, Canaccord Tech 2022 and the (EZPW) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish at Session Highs on Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Medical Sector Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.0 +.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,285.0 -38.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.73 +1.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 +2.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.5 -.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 -6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 +11.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 +82.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.11 -1.06%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 363.28 -.28%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.75 -1.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 153.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.64 -.16%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 233.42 -2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.46 +.88% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,048.72 -7.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 46.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  119.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.53 +.24%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.71 +.53%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .53% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 11.5 -8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 154.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.9 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.3 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.0 -4.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.96 -2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 63 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.9%(-1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +111 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +54 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.5% 2) Gold & Silver -2.8% 3) Banks -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IMUX, KMT, CYXT, METC, PLL, CCCC, SYF, VIR, TALO, HSC, PAA, IPI, WIRE, ANDE, LNG, ONL, MOS, MCW, SHLS, NCNO, OLLI, LEU, ROCC, GFS, DISCA, SNBR, ARRY, MUR, HGTY, ACAD, GTLS and AMLX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HYMC 2) EWJ 3) HPQ 4) XLV 5) DBD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RETA 2) CLVR 3) NMTC 4) VLTA 5) SNBR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +1.3% 2) Digital Health +1.0% 3) REITs +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• POLY, AMC, SONO, GME, STAA, FSLR, NAPA and CPT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GKOS 2) HMHC 3) HYMC 4) CNK 5) NILE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HYMC 2) WIMI 3) CUTR 4) RIOT 5) STAA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 32.9% of Issues Advancing, 63.4% Declining
• 60 New 52-Week Highs, 110 New Lows
• 44.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,220.0 -103.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,607 +.77%
  
• Vix 22.2 +6.5%
• Total Put/Call .90 +4.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.57 +145.3%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Biden Seeks to Temper Remark on Putin as U.S. Allies Object.
• Ukraine Update: Kyiv Says In-Person Talks to Resume in Turkey.  
• Russian Tankers Going Dark Raises Flags on Sanctions Evasion.
• Germany Weighing Missile-Defense Shield Made in U.S. or Israel.
• China Stirs Unease for ESG Managers Blindsided by Russia’s War.   
• Shanghai to Lock Down Half City in Turns for Mass Covid Test.  
• Tesla to Suspend Production at Shanghai Plant on Virus Curbs.
  
• Mounting Fed Bets, War Uncertainty Put Spotlight on Battered Yen.  
• A World That’s More Expensive Is Starting to Destroy Demand.  
• Bonds Slide, U.S. Equity Futures Dip; Crude Drops: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Falls as China’s Virus Flare-Up Worsens, Yemeni Rebels Pause.
• ‘The Morgan Stanley Fade’: U.S. Probe Dredges Up Years of Animus.
• Fed’s Best Hope Increasingly Looks Like a ‘Semi-Hard’ Landing.
• U.S. Big Cap Stocks Turn Into World’s Top Haven as Risk Rises.  
• California Grocery Workers Authorize Strike as Talks Continue.  
• Biden to Propose 20% Tax Aimed at Billionaires, Unrealized Gains.

Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine Seeks to Exploit Shift in Russia’s Military Strategy.
• Latest Updates: Blinken Says U.S. Isn’t Pursuing Regime Change in Russia.
• Teens Are Still Getting TikTok-Related Tics and Other Disorders.
• ‘There Is No Fear’: A Ukrainian Mother Risks All to Retrieve Her Son.
• Photos Chronicle Mariupol Devastation.
• Riskiest Bets in Stock Market Are Most Popular.
• Oil Prices Stay High as Russian Crude Shortage Hits Market.
• Ukraine War Drives Up Cost of Wind, Solar Power.
• Chain Reaction: Why Global Supply Chains May Never Be the Same.
• Inflation Gets Starring Role in GOP Campaign Ads.
• Volkswagen Prepares for a Deglobalized World.
• Capital Spending Boom Helps Raise Productivity, Contain Costs.

Fox News:   

• Republicans demand accountability after report reveals staggering extent of FBI rule breaking.
• DAY 32 LIVE UPDATES: Blinken walks back Biden's Putin comments.
• White House plotting a new tax to pay for Biden's spending.
• Biden completely changes his tune one day after saying 'butcher' Putin 'cannot remain in power'.

CNBC:

• Blinken says U.S. is not seeking regime change; Russia may be trying to encircle troops in east Ukraine.
• Britain will reveal crypto regulation plans in coming weeks, sources say.
• Top Wall Street analysts see long-term upside in these stocks even amid investor uncertainty.
• Xi’s gamble on Putin may be the most dangerous and short-sighted of his nine years in power.

Zero Hedge:

• After Biden Sparks "Global Uproar" With Regime Change Comment, Blinken Awkwardly Tries To Walk It Back.
• Biden Says "Butcher" Putin "Cannot Remain In Power" In Call For Regime Change In Russia.
• FDA Tells Doctors In 8 States To Stop Using COVID-19 Treatment. 
• "The Morgan Stanley Fade" - Clients Who Felt Cheated By Bank's Block Trading Business Seize Opportunity For Revenge.
• Stockman: How The C-Suite Embraced Lockdowns And Economic War.
• RV Shipments Soar To Record For This Time Of Year.
• Nava Capital: Fasten Your Seat Belts.
• Daniel Lacalle: Why High Energy Prices Are Here To Stay.
• Volcker Caused A Recession To Bring Down Soaring Inflation; Powell Hopes To Achieve The Same Without A Recession.
• Elon Musk Teases Launching New 'Free Speech' Social Media Platform.
• Farmers On The Brink.
• Iran Calls Nuclear Deal "Imminent" While US Envoy Rejects Assessment, Saying "Not Confident".
• Goldman Trader: This Rally Is Nothing But A Huge Bear Market Squeeze; Stocks Will Be Lower "Over The Next Few Weeks".
• Biden Admin's Nuclear Deal: "This Isn't Obama's Iran Deal. It's Much, Much Worse.".
• Bear! The biggest bubble is deflating right in front of our eyes.
• A Manufactured World Crisis?
• Nightmare Scenario: Operational Miscalculations Could Trigger Nuclear War.
• "It's Become A Real Hindrance": Neighbors Complain About Bill Gates' Sprawling $43 Million Mansion Rebuild In San Diego.
• Why Surging Energy Prices Won't Save America's Oil 'Boom Towns' From Becoming 'Ghost Towns'.
• USA Today Defends Brown Jackson's Inability To Define "Woman".
• White House Unveils 20% "Billionaire Minimum Tax" Proposal In 2023 Budget.
• How Bill Barr's Silence Impacted The Outcome Of An Election.

NewsMax:

• Donald Trump: Biden's Leadership One 'Train Wreck' After Another.
• Gen. Holt: Growing Lack of Global Respect 'Imperils' US at Home.  
• Bolton: Iran Nuke Deal Should Face Review in Congress. 
• Goya Foods CEO: Closing Keystone Pipeline, COVID Lockdowns 'Big Mistake'.  
• NBC Poll: 7 in 10 Americans Have Low Confidence in Biden.
• Ukrainian Official: Russia Putting Ukrainians Into Camps, Like 'Nazi Germany'.
• Rep. Tenney: 'Common Sense' to Increase Oil Supply.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WATCH: Fox News Host Says He is Hearing That Hunter Biden Will Be Indicted.
• EXCLUSIVE: Russia Sold Its Stake in Uranium One Shortly Before Invading Ukraine – The Same Company Clintons Helped Turn Over to Russians.
• Alaska Hands Over Elections to Corrupt Democrats – Upcoming Election Will Have All Mail-In Ballots and No Signature Check.
• EXCLUSIVE: Hunter Biden Was Accessing Defense Department Systems and His Government Password Was His Favorite Men’s Clothing Store in Beverly Hills.
• Bill Gates Says Rich Nations “Should Move to 100% Synthetic Beef” In Order to Fight Climate Change – “You Can Get Used to The Taste Difference”.
• Latest CDC Data Shows That Vaccinated Children Aged 5-11 Are Now MORE Likely to Catch Covid Than Their Unvaccinated Peers.
• “We Live in a Time of Utter Madness and We’re Ruled by Lawless Monsters” – Michele Bachmann at Jerusalem Prayer Breakfast.
• Trump Now Leads by Double Digits in a State Biden Took in 2020.
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom Appoints First Openly Transgender Judge to Bench.
• DEVASTATING! President Trump Lays Out the Voter Fraud in Georgia from 2020 Election during Commerce, GA Speech (VIDEO).
• New Polling Shows That Almost 1/4 of DEMOCRAT Voters Believe Biden Would Not Be President Today if The Media Had Fully Reported About Hunter’s ‘Laptop from Hell’. 

GETTR: 

• @VigilantFox - The Government and Corporations Will Know You Better Than You Know Yourself - Yuval Noah Harari "Are we close or at the point when Huawei or Facebook or the government or whoever can systematically HACK millions of people meaning, knowing them better than they know themselves? They know more about me than I know about myself, about my medical condition, about my mental weaknesses, about my life history. Once you reach that point, the implication is that they can predict and manipulate my decisions better than [I can]." (video) "Would Have Been Illegal" - RFK Jr. Explains Why Fauci Had Such a Problem With Early Treatment. (video) Macron Has an Opponent - Supporters of Éric Zemmour Turn Paris Into a Sea of Red, White, and Blue. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 795,782 Reports(+7,159 from prior week) Through March 18th, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 61.75 +.75 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.47 +.13%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,283.0 -43.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.8 +1.5%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%.
• S&P 500 futures -.24%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (PLAY)/.61
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance report for Feb. is estimated at -$106.3B versus -$107.6B in Jan.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +.8% gain in Jan.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +1.2% gain in Jan.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for March is estimated to fall to 10.0 versus 14.0 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Unemployment Rate, 2Y/5Y T-Note auctions and the Maxim Group Virtual Growth Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.