Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Foods -.6% 2) Pharma -.4% 3) Biotech -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LZB, SAVA, BOX, MARA, KNTK, ISEE, ANF, CRM, HAIN, RLAY, ASTS, EWTX, BURL, DLTR, SPLK and PTON
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SPLK 2) DLTR 3) MMM 4) GPS 5) CRM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PTON 2) ANF 3) GRAB 4) WEBR 5) HAIN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +3.2% 2) Semis +2.3% 3) Airlines +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SNOW, HPK, ACLS, SCVL, FIGS, AEHR, DNOW, HDSN, PLUG, HIBB, LXU, JNPR, STLD and ENVX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ADSK 2) SPLK 3) MMM 4) DLTR 5) BOX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SNOW 2) FREY 3) DXLG 4) TITN 5) LANC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 71.4% of Issues Advancing, 24.8% Declining
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 31.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 43.0 -1.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,801.8 +.02%
  
• Vix 22.2 -2.7%
• Total Put/Call .87 -3.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.12 +62.3%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• China Plans More Measures to Stabilize Economy as Recovery Slows.  
• Once Unthinkable Ideas Gain Traction to Fight UK Energy Crisis.  
• European Governments Spend $278 Billion to Cushion Energy Crisis.  
• Traders Boost ECB, BOE Rate-Hike Bets as Energy Costs Surge.  
• Tortillas Help Drive Mexico’s Inflation to New 21-Year High.  
• OPEC Nations Line Up Behind Saudi Call to Act If Necessary.
• Firm Asia Open Ahead Amid China Vow, Fed Countdown: Markets Wrap.
• Invesco Sees ‘Rude Awakening’ With Oil, Food Set to Spike Soon.
• Biden’s Student-Loan Relief Adds New Wrinkle to Inflation Debate.
  
• Opinion: Biden's Student Loan Plan Neglects Older Borrowers.
• Lockstep Markets Primed for All-or-Nothing Sweepstakes on Powell.  
• Hedge Fund Founder Och Sues Sculptor Over CEO’s ‘Ever-Escalating’ Pay.  
• California Finalizes Details on Banning Gas-Powered Car Sales.
• Morgan Stanley’s Wilson and JPMorgan’s Michele Warn About QT.  
• Anti-ESG Firm Strive Plans Four New ETFs After First Fund Draws $250 Million.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Biden Administration Moves to Strengthen DACA With a New Rule.
• Jerome Powell’s Dilemma: What if the Drivers of Inflation Are Here to Stay?
• Bed Bath & Beyond’s Challenges Linger After Loan Deal.
• Uvalde School Board to Consider Firing Police Chief.
• A School Board Revolt in Florida. Candidates endorsed by Gov. DeSantis win to control two big districts.
• The Half-Trillion-Dollar Student-Loan Executive Coup. Biden’s student-loan write-off is an abuse of power that favors college grads at the expense of plumbers and FedEx drivers.
• Big Oil to Investors: You’re Too Pessimistic.
• Over 2 Million Americans Aren’t Working Due to "Long Covid".

Fox News:

• White House has no answer about whose tab Biden's $300,000,000,000 student loan handout is going on.
• Biden student loan handout could worsen inflation crisis, analysis shows.
• Ex-Obama adviser rips Biden's student loan handout.

CNBC.com:

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Snowflake, Nvidia, Salesforce and more.
• Nvidia says gaming market conditions are ‘challenging,’ Q3 forecast misses.
• Amazon is shutting down its telehealth service, Amazon Care.
• Here’s what President Biden’s student loan forgiveness means for your taxes..
• Salesforce trims full-year expectations for earnings and revenue.
• Snowflake shares soar following revenue beat.
• Home prices fell for the first time in 3 years last month – and it was the biggest drop since 2011.

MarketWatch:        

• A majority of adults are worried about the possibility of a recession by the end of 2023 — and say they’re not financially prepared.
  
• These 10 stocks matter the most to hedge funds right now.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden White House Directly Facilitated FBI Mar-A-Lago Raid.
• "Tsunami Of Shutoffs": 1 In 6 US Homes Are Behind On Power Bills.
• Cops Shut Down 8-Year-Old Girl's Lemonade Stand To Protect Society From Unlicensed Lemonade.
• 2nd Round Of US Airstrikes Over Syria As Militias Fire Rockets On Occupied Gas Fields.
• California DA Admits 70% Of Suspects Released On $0 Bail Committed New Crimes.
• Mexican Journalist Shot Dead Hours After Publishing Story On 43 Missing Students.
• US stocks gained but with upside capped by mixed data and pre-Jackson Hole positioning - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Early Investors In Texas Shale Are Now Reaping The Benefits Of Sticking With Their Bet.
• Could Poor Coffee Harvests Send Prices Even Higher?
• Chicago Public Schools' Radical Agenda Gets Uglier: 'Equity' Video Promotes Looting & Burning.
• Hedge Funds Boosted Tech Holdings And Cut Leverage As Portfolio Concentration Hit All Time Highs, Goldman Finds.
• More Billions To Ukraine As America Falls Apart.
• Bonds sold as markets position for hawkish Powell in Wyoming - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Peter Schiff: Somebody Has To Pay For Student Loan Forgiveness.
• Stocks & Bond Yields Jump As Hawknado Holds Ahead Of J-Hole.
• Home Price Drops In Pandemic Boomtowns Could Be First Sign Of Coming Real Estate Turmoil.
• Penn Medical School Expands Minority-Candidate Program That Does Not Require MCAT.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Democrats And MSM Run Brutal Smear Campaign Against US Senate Candidate Herschel Walker For Lying About Working With Law Enforcement – Then Cops That Worked With Him Dismantled The Fake News.
• Whistleblower Claims FBI Leadership Told Bureau Employees Not to Look at Hunter Biden’s Laptop From Hell.
• “Someone Needs to Grab that Little Elf and Chuck Him Across the Potomac” – DeSantis Tees Off on Fauci (VIDEO).
• Biden Claims Canceling Student Loan Debt Won’t Have Any “Meaningful Effect on Inflation” (VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE: Illegal Aliens Take Taxpayer-Paid Vacations to San Diego Courtesy of DHS.
• “The People’s Republic of China Is Preparing to Go to War, and It Is Not Trying to Hide Its Efforts” – Chinese Expert Gordon Chang.
•   JUST IN: Quadruple Vaxxed Jill Biden Infected with Covid AGAIN in ‘Rebound’ Case After Taking Paxlovid.
• California to Ban Sale of New Gas-Powered Cars – All Electric Vehicles in Next Decade.
• Election Integrity: Alabama ES&S Voting Machines Accepted *XEROXED* Ballots During Machine Testing.
• Dennis Rodman Says He is No Longer Going to Russia After State Dept Urged Him Not to Interfere in Brittney Griner Case.
  

The Epoch Times:

• US ‘Heavily Dependent’ on China for Rare Earth Elements: Experts.
  
• China Censors ‘Minions’ Ending; Expert Says Hollywood Under Pressure to ‘Kowtow’ to CCP.
• China’s Economy Is on the Ropes.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 857,343 Reports(+5,974 from prior week) Through August 12th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.5 -6.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 70.0 -4.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.72 +.02%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 43.40 -.37%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.28 +1.0 basis point
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.3 -.16%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANF)/.23
• (BURL)/.21
• (DG)/2.94
• (DLTR)/1.62
• (FRO)/.20
• (HAIN)/.18
• (HIBB)/2.16
• (PTON)/-.77
• (TITN)/.70
• (TD)/2.04
  

After the Close:

• (AFRM)/-.73
• (DELL)/1.64
• (GPS)/-.02
• (MRVL)/.56
• (ULTA)/4.96
• (VMW)/1.58
• (WDAY)/./80
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 252K versus 250K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1441K versus 1437K prior.
• 2Q GDP revisions.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Aug. is estimated to fall to 10.0 versus 13.0 in July.

Upcoming Splits

• (TSLA) 3-for-1
• (NDAQ) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German IFO Index, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Less European Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.3 -3.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .81% -4.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 43.2 +2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.53 +.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.97 -1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.3 -3.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -10.2%

• NYSE Arms .78 +2.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.10 -.65%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 401.30 -1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 344.0 +3.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 117.30 -1.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 232.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.64 -3.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 308.66 -4.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.81 +.15%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,588.9 n/a
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 21.75 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  139.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.83 -.39%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .92 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.70 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.74% +4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -27.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 290.9 euros/megawatt-hour +8.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.1 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.8 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.7 -.8 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.85 +.00:  Growth Rate +15.7% +0.0 percentage point, P/E 17.5 +.1 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +1.38% -24.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.30 +10.0 basis points
  

• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 unch.: 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 46.3%(-2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 45.8%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 189 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.9%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -74.1%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +47 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +57 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -31 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/tech/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -.5% 2) Steel -.5% 3) Retail -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PETQ, IART, ALHC, ZI, EAT, WOOF, SCVL, APLS, CPRX, AAP, CAL and JWN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JWN 2) DISH 3) TOL 4) IVV 5) XLI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JWN 2) AAP 3) CTRN 4) WOOF 5) GPS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume