Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.0 -4.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 68.75 -1.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 -.06%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 42.9 +1.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.36 +5.0 basis points
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.2 +.6%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (FCEL)/-.06
• (LOVE)/.47

After the Close:

• (AOUT)/.08
• (DOCU)/.42
• (FIZZ)/.55
• (RH)/6.61
• (SWBI)/.21
• (ZS)/.21
• (ZMZ)/.47
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 235K versus 232K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated at 1438K versus 1438K prior.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for July is estimated to fall to $32.0B versus $40.154B in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, ECB rate decision, German Trade Data report, weekly retail sales reports, BofA Gaming/Lodging Conference, (MRNA) R&D Day, (POWI) analyst day and the (DHI) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Medical/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.1 -6.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.12% n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 41.9 -1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.17 +1.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.6 -.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.4 -3.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +19.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -13.2%

• NYSE Arms .89 +1.14%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.08 -4.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 429.62 +1.14%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 -9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 125.37 -2.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 229.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.0 -1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 307.4 -4.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.57 +.43%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 37.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.5 basis points -3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 basis points -4.25 basis pionts
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.25 +.23%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .72 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.49 +.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.0% +9.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -19.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 208.0 euros/megawatt-hour -13.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.7 +1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.9 +7.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -6.2 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.43 unch.:  Growth Rate +16.0% unch., P/E 16.7 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.40 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.36% -95.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 77.0%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 76.9%(+6.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 147 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.4%(-2.1 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -13/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.5%(-1.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +79 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 65.0% of Issues Advancing, 31.0% Declining
• 6 New 52-Week Highs, 107 New Lows
• 24.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 41.8 -1.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,461.4 -.24%
  
• Vix 25.7 -4.5%
• Total Put/Call .98 -14.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 +29.6% 

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 Index 3,937.90 -3.1%

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 31,468.61 -2.5%

• NASDAQ 11,673.35 -3.9%

• Russell 2000 1,814.85 -4.6%

• S&P 500 High Beta 63.74 -4.0%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 191.17 -5.2%

• Wilshire 5000 39,628.1 -3.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,324.50 -3.8%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,466.31 -2.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 757.43 -2.0%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,119.44 -1.4%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,783.06 -4.5%

• Transports 13,776.65 -4.2%

• Utilities 1,018.45 -.8%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 68.6 +1.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.0 -2.8%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,452.26 -.53%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 906.03 -.13%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 454,768 -2.34%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,131 -1,027
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -31.06 -14.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 246,220 +14.6%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,503,506 -3.5%

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -2.8%

• OEX Put/Call 1.75 -6.6%

• ISE Sentiment 94.0 -24.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.21 -46.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 41.3 -1.7%
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 2.59 -20.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 24.9 -8.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .99% -69.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.0 -2.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.2 +7.8%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.6 -.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,278.75 -3.7%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  32.36 -22.5
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.568 Trillion -.05%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$.647 Million

• AAII % Bulls 21.9 -20.9%

• AAII % Bears 50.4 +18.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 284.62 -4.8%

• Crude Oil 87.8 -4.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 247.32 -6.9%

• Natural Gas 8.92 -6.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 214.66 euros/megawatt-hour -29.9%
  

• Heating Oil 363.0 -10.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 428.0 (1,000/metric ton) +1.33%
  

• Gold 1,713.95 -1.4%
• Silver 18.12 -3.9%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 412.37 -7.2%

• Copper 342.30 -6.7%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 380.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.8%

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.60 USD/Metric Tonne -6.3%

• Lumber  470.5 -10.2%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,510.57 +.09%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 645.0 USD/Short Ton -5.2%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.6% +1.0 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -11.7% +.4 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 50.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.5 -17.0%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 38.7 -38.3%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.17 +.50:  Growth Rate +16.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 16.9 -.5 point

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.6 -2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.3 +15.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.1 -10.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point rate hike, 42.0%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike, 58.0%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 9/21

• US Dollar Index 109.22 +.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,636.25 -.74%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 20,249.70 +1.41%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.17 +2.2%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -19.0 +19.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.22% +19.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.790 Trillion -.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.69 -1.7%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 200.61 -.03%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 233.0 +11.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.42 +7.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 248.96 -4.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.47 -.11%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.72 -3.9%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.59 -1.41%

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.24% -4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45% -13.0 basis points

• TED Spread 25.75 +1.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.5 +3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 -1.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 90.0 +3.8%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 367.0 +6.7% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 391.0 +40.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 126.35 +5.9%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 316.28 +2.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 142.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.43 -1.05%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .73 -10.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 5.3 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,198.5 +.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 241,500 -1.63%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 43.0 -1.1% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.08% +20.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 260,100 -3.7%

• Weekly Retail Sales +12.7% +.5 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +16.9% +8.9 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $88.3M n/a
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.81/gallon -.06/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,002 -10.8%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,830.11 -2.54%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.5 -5.6%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 55.54 +2.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 268,941 +1.82%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,312,486 +24.2%
• US Covid-19:  182 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.5%(-.4 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -76.3%(-1.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.8%

Worst Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Growth -3.0%
  

Leading Sectors

• Biotech +.5%

• Utilities +.3%
  

• Medical Equipment +.1%

• Restaurants -.1%

• Banks -.1%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Computer Hardware -4.5%
  

• Shipping -4.9%

• Alt Energy -5.5%

• Semis -5.6%
  

• Steel -6.7%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (3)

• AGIO, CFVI and DXC
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)

• CDNA, LE, ARRY, OXM, RETA, CHPT and AMLX
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Historically Divisive US Political Rhetoric, Eurozone Energy Crisis Escalation, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.2 -1.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .99% +8.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 41.3 +.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.67 +.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 -.61%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.3 +.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +1.96%

• NYSE Arms 1.67 +70.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 91.45 +.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 430.88 -.01%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 391.0 +8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 127.21 -3.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 232.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 142.83 -1.04%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 313.12 -4.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.55 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.75 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 25.75 basis points +10.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 basis points unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  141.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.40 +.19%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .73 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.51 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.87% -6.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -21.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 215.0 euros/megawatt-hour -11.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.6 -5.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.3 +.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.1 +.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.17 +.01:  Growth Rate +16.0% unch., P/E 16.6 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.43 -8.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.59% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 51.0%(-17.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 50.6%(-15.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 182 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.5%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -76.3%(-.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -151 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -83 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -390 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my commodity sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral