Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.5% 2) Foods -1.3% 3) Telecom -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KFY, CPB, WIRE, GIII, ARRY, W, KTB, HCP, SKYW, VRNT, CFVI, MKC, CFVI, MKC, SLVM, LOVE, AEO and PLAY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PLAY 2) GSAT 3) ITB 4) RH 5) BIIB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BILI 2) AEOS 3) PLAY 4) MKC 5) FCEL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +2.5% 2) Banks +2.3% 3) Steel +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMLX, ASAN, RLAY, REGN, RVNC, PHR, AVAV, LYFT, AGIO, ISEE, PEN, TASK, RIVN, SLAB, AXNX, GME, CCOI and TEN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) R 2) MET 3) PLAY 4) CLR 5) ICLN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PIXY 2) RLAY 3) ASAN 4) AMLX 5) RVNC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 40.2% of Issues Advancing, 55.5% Declining
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 70 New Lows
• 23.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 44.1 +4.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,466.5 -.43%
  
• Vix 24.8 +.5%
• Total Put/Call .91 -8.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.09 +78.7% 

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.0 -4.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 68.75 -1.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 -.06%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 42.9 +1.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.36 +5.0 basis points
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.2 +.6%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (FCEL)/-.06
• (LOVE)/.47

After the Close:

• (AOUT)/.08
• (DOCU)/.42
• (FIZZ)/.55
• (RH)/6.61
• (SWBI)/.21
• (ZS)/.21
• (ZMZ)/.47
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 235K versus 232K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated at 1438K versus 1438K prior.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for July is estimated to fall to $32.0B versus $40.154B in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, ECB rate decision, German Trade Data report, weekly retail sales reports, BofA Gaming/Lodging Conference, (MRNA) R&D Day, (POWI) analyst day and the (DHI) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Medical/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.1 -6.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.12% n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 41.9 -1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.17 +1.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.6 -.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.4 -3.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +19.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -13.2%

• NYSE Arms .89 +1.14%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.08 -4.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 429.62 +1.14%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 -9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 125.37 -2.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 229.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.0 -1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 307.4 -4.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.57 +.43%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 37.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.5 basis points -3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 basis points -4.25 basis pionts
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.25 +.23%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .72 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.49 +.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.0% +9.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -19.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 208.0 euros/megawatt-hour -13.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.7 +1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.9 +7.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -6.2 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.43 unch.:  Growth Rate +16.0% unch., P/E 16.7 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.40 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.36% -95.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 77.0%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 76.9%(+6.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 147 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.4%(-2.1 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -13/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.5%(-1.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +79 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 65.0% of Issues Advancing, 31.0% Declining
• 6 New 52-Week Highs, 107 New Lows
• 24.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 41.8 -1.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,461.4 -.24%
  
• Vix 25.7 -4.5%
• Total Put/Call .98 -14.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 +29.6%