Tuesday, September 13, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
 OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -2.5% to -1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.75 +5.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 72.25 +2.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.3 -.3%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 44.4 +.8%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.18 -3.0 basis points
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.4 -.5%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.0%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The PPI Final Demand YoY for Aug. is estimated to rise +8.8% versus a +9.8% gain in July.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in July.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,890,750 barrels versus a +8,845,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -757,000 barrels versus a +333,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate Inventories are estimated to fall by -410,750 barrels versus a +95,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.35% versus a -1.8% decline prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • (PANW) 3-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Industrial Production report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Bank of America Healthcare Conference and the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Plunging into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Dollar Strength, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.5 +6.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.82%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 45.3 -1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.52 -.26%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.3 +1.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.1 +4.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -10.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 -.93%
  • NYSE Arms 1.27 +130.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.40 +6.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 386.03 -.33%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 342.0 -7.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 118.19 +4.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 227.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.4 -1.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 303.79 +6.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.58-.48%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 35.0 basis points +2.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 8.75 basis points -15.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 basis points -2.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 -2.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 46.90 -.87%
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .70 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.48 -.70%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.18% +13.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -34.0 basis points (2s/10s) -9.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 202.30 euros/megawatt-hour +6.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.4 +15.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.3 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.0 -4.9 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.61 +.13:  Growth Rate +15.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.8 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.08 +13.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.30% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.68% +6.0 basis points: CPI YoY +8.21% -3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 49.7%(+35.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 43.3%(+19.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
US Covid-19:
  • 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.2%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -801 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -156 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower:  On losses in my tech/commodity/medical/utility/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -3.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -5.7% 2) Semis -5.0% 3) Retail -4.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ST, TPG, RVNC, MPW, RAPT, DYN, TASK, INBX, PCH, GSHD, DRVN, SWBI, KURA, BLKB, MCW, ZS, ROIC, SKYW, DSGN, MEDP, AVTR, PTON, SKYT, LOVE, ASTS, CXM, SITM, WDC, ASAN, EMN, CMP, W, BASE, CYRX, U, COCO, PLCE, ZUMZ, SYNH, RCKT, RLAY and BRZE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SAVE 2) CLVS 3) EWJ 4) FXI 5) TLT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RENT 2) BRZE 3) RLAY 4) UPST 5) COIN
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -2.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Shipping -.1% 2) Agriculture -.9% 3) Utilities -1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AKRO, AEHR, CPRX, CRDO, LNG and IDYA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SAVE 2) HYMC 3) ORCL 4) ACI 5) EBIX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CMRA 2) SKKY 3) ETNB 4) AKRO 5) PL

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -4.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 9.8% of Issues Advancing, 87.3% Declining
  • 10 New 52-Week Highs, 50 New Lows
  • 30.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 45.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 44.9 -2.5%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,438.8 -1.04%
  • Vix 26.2 +9.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 +1.9%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.37 +149.0% 

Monday, September 12, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.75 -3.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 67.0 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.9 +.07%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 46.3 +.6%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.22 unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.3 -.4%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to 90.8 versus 89.9 in July.
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for August is estimated to fall -.1% versus unch. in July.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in July.
  • The CPI YoY for August is estimated to rise +8.0% versus an +8.5% gain in July.
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for August.
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Deficit for August is estimated at -$216.0B versus -$211.1B in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • (PANW) 3-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German ZEW Index, 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly retail sales reports, BofA Real Estate Conference, Baird Healthcare Conference, (SBUX) investor day, RBC Industrials Conference, (TWTR) shareholder meeting, Piper Growth Frontiers Conference and the CSFB Specialties/Basics Conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.