Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, End-of-Quarter Positioning, Alt Energy/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.8 -1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .82%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.1 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.5 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -.08%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.3 +.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -30.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .98 +4.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.30 +4.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.9 -2.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 383.1 -4.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 455.0 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.9 -4.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 424.68 +16.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 181.0 basis basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.9 -2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 229.48 -2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.85 +.60%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 43.75 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  152.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 673.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.66% -8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.8 euros/megawatt-hour +9.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.0 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.0 -4.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.5 +4.7 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.98 -.13:  Growth Rate +1.7% , P/E 18.1 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.30% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.42 -12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.03 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -58.25 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.49% -70.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.60% -13.0 basis points: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 50.0%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 49.9%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +209 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +153 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -.9% 2) Gold & Silver -.5% 3) Banks +.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SMTC, VTR, VKTX, ITCI, BILI, RNA, TH and AEHR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HAS 2) AMRS 3) AX 4) BB 5) WM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NKLA 2) VORB 3) BBBY 4) AEHR 5) MU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Alt Energy +4.0% 2) Gambling +2.6% 3) Retail +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PACB, FLNC, AI, ARCT, ANGO, BRZE, ENVX, PD, DWAC, TRUP and NEP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MQ 2) RLX 3) BTG 4) UBS 5) RUM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) YMAB 2) AULT 3) CABA 4) IONQ 5) WULF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (SAIC)/1.65
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Feb. is estimated unch. versus a -.1% decline in Jan.
• ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 47.5 versus 47.7 in Feb.
• ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to fall to 51.2 versus 51.3 in Feb. 
  

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for March is estimated to rise to 14.9M versus 14.89M in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Guggenheim Healthcare Talks/Genomic Medicines/Rare Diseases Conference and the (EVA) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 +3.1
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 80.3% of Issues Advancing, 17.3% Declining
• 41 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 45.4%(+5.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.0 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 55.1 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,982.2 -.03%
  
• Vix 20.6 -1.1%
• Total Put/Call .93 -1.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 -8.1%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Widening US-China Rate Gap Set to Weigh on Yuan’s Resilience.
• Tokyo Inflation Slows Further Ahead of BOJ Leadership Shift.
• Finland Clears Last Obstacle to NATO Entry With Turkish Nod.
• Asia Stocks Rise, Set to Extend Quarterly Rally: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Heads for Weekly Surge as Iraqi Supply Disruption Continues.
• Transcript: Matt King Sees a $1 Trillion Liquidity Drain Coming to Markets.
• Trump Indictment Is Going to Make US Politics Even More Divisive.
• White House Proposes Tougher Bank Rules After Crisis.
• Manhattan Office Vacancy Hits Record as Landlords Add Space.
• NYC Mayor Urges Wall Street Cooperation to Get Workers Back to Offices.
• Bed Bath Warns of Bankruptcy Risk in $300 Million Offering.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• ‘Hurry Up and Get It Done’: Norfolk Southern Set Railcar Safety Checks at One Minute
• Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act Betrayal. Instead of implementing the law as intended, his administration subverts it for ideological ends.
• Nine Soldiers Killed in Black Hawk Helicopter Crash.
• U.S. Considers Asking Black Americans on Census if They Are Slave Descendants.
• Small Banks Are Losing to Big Banks. Their Customers Are About to Feel It.

Fox News:

• Former president indicted after Manhattan DA's investigation.
• Trump lawyer calls indictment 'lowest point in history for our criminal system'.
• DeSantis' statement on possible Trump extradition leaves no room for doubt.

CNBC.com:

• More home sellers are sitting out of the spring housing market.
• Sam Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty to latest round of federal fraud, bribery charges.

MarketWatch:

• Tech stocks back as a haven? ‘It’s a mistake,’ say market analysts.
•  Virgin Orbit stock plunges after report says company will cease operations.
• Wall Street bonuses fall by the most since 2008 as policy makers mull economic impact.
• Piles of commercial real-estate loans at banks may be worth only 77 cents on the dollar, or less.

Zero Hedge:

• Democrats Said No One Is Coming To Take Your Gas Appliances – They Lied.
• "This Is Political Persecution": Trump Rages, DeSantis 'Won't Extradite', McCarthy Cries 'Injustice' Over Indictment. 
• North Carolina College To 'Revise Policies' After Drag Queen Lap Dances On Teenage Girl.
• Libs Of TikTok Confronts AOC For Violating Committee Ethics Rules - Her Response Is Predictable.
• FTC Complaint Targets OpenAI's ChatGPT, Calls For Suspension Of New 'Bias Reinforcing' Chatbot Deployment.
• BlackRock's Larry Fink And The New Post-ESG Realism.
• Twitter Restricts Conservative Accounts Over 'Trans Day Of Vengeance' Posts.
• Huge Block Of Gulf Of Mexico Auctioned For Oil Drilling, Infuriating Biden's Climate Activists.
• Belief In Traditional American Values Plummeting: WSJ Poll.
• US stock markets were mostly higher as tech strength persisted - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Watch: Austrian Lawmakers Stage Mass Walkout During Zelensky Speech.
• Stubborn squeeze frustration.
• Unique Quarter-End Situation Emerging.
• Fed Balance Sheet Dips As Deposit-Run Eases While Bankers Blast Biden's Premature Re-Regulation. 
• Disney Pulled Fast One On DeSantis, Used 'Royal Lives' Clause To Preserve Power.
• Stocks extend gains despite bank weakness and haven strength - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• While We're Obsessing About The Economy & The Fed, Society Is Unraveling.
• Gold Gains As Banks Buckle Again, Dollar Dumped.

Newsmax:       

• Trump Indicted by NY Grand Jury.
• Trump Statement: Political Persecution, Election Interference.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Trump Expected to Surrender to Manhattan DA’s Office Early Next Week.
• Ronna McDaniel Issues WEAK Statement in Response to Trump Indictment.
• BREAKING: Trump Responds to Indictment — ‘THIS IS AN ATTACK ON OUR COUNTRY — THE LIKES OF WHICH HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE’.
• Whoopi Wears Sick, Anti-Christian Sweatshirt on ‘The View’ in Wake of Slaughter of Christian Kids.
• McCarthy Trolls Joe Biden and Blasts Lefty Reporters During Presser After Republicans Pass Bill to Lower Energy Prices (VIDEO).
• TRAGIC: Teen Pokémon Player Disqualified From Tournament Over “nervous” Laugh When Asked What His Pronouns Are.
• Insurrection! Leftists STORM TENNESSEE CAPITOL Chanting “No Action, No Peace!” – After Trans Maniac Goes on Christian School Mass Shooting Spree (VIDEO).
• Steve Scalise Blasts Biden Energy Policy: ‘He’s not against oil, he’s just against American oil!’ (VIDEO).
• ABSURD: Activists Tell California Reparations Committee That $5 Million Per Person isn’t Enough.

The Epoch Times:

• House China Committee Urges More Support for Taiwan in Face of Increasingly Aggressive Beijing.
• ‘Common Prosperity’ Fades as China’s Billionaires and Unemployed Poor Proliferate Simultaneously.

Twitter: 

• @zerohedge - Bombshell Vax Analysis Finds $147 Billion In Economic Damage, Tens Of Millions Injured Or Disabled.
• @Breaking911 - KJP: "Our hearts go out to the trans community — as they are under attack right now." (video)
• @C_Barraud - Wild Stock Market Reversals Put Dip-Buyers on Pace for Historic Year - Bloomberg. (graph)
• @gatewaypundit - Grim Milestone: Jan. 6 Political Prisoner Jake Lang Has Now Been Held in Prison for 800 Days Without a Trial.
• @ChuckCallesto - BREAKING NOW: left-wing protesters STORM Tennessee capital. 
• @MarketWatch - Commercial mortgages are a big $3.1 trillion share of bank holdings: Goldman Sachs.
• @ImMeme - Taliban is thanking U.S. for all its new military vehicles. (video)
• @VigilantFox - ‘These Numbers Look Horrific’: Work Absence Rates Are Off the Charts — And It’s Only Gotten Worse. “Something’s going on with our workforce that we’ve never seen before. And it’s gone so far above trend — it’s a health concern.”

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 943,911 Reports(+1,877 from prior week) Through March 10th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.75 - basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 77.0 - basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 124.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  55.90 +2.0%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.38 -7.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.9 +.11%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.

• S&P 500 futures +.32%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.40%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.