Stocks Rising into Afternoon on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.1 -5.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .85%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.7 +1.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.07 +.12%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 -1.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.8 -2.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -34.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -20.8%

• NYSE Arms .99 -38.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.2 -2.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 368.0 -2.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 356.0 -9
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.4 -.96% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 380.9 -1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.7 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 230.9 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.95 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 34.5 basis points +11.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 155.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 693.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 96.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.0 +.44%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.94% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.1 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.4 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.60 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.7 +8.5 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.91 -.15:  Growth Rate +1.6% unch., P/E 18.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.27% -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.03 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.11 -7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -52.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.17% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% unch.: CPI YoY +5.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 63.3%(-3.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 50.4%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +233 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +79 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +151 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -.9% 2) Steel -.8% 3) Insurance -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MLTX, PMT, HOG, GBX, SAIA, PLTK, KMPR, SRPT, PGR and INFY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WW 2) BBY 3) VRAY 4) KNX 5) DAL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SRPT 2) SPWH 3) GCTK 4) VRAY 5) HOG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Digital Health +2.7% 2) Gold and Silver +2.5% 3) Social Media +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PHAT, VERV, IGMS, FDMT, MARA, RLAY, RIOT, ARVN, CUTR, SCPH, INGR, MIRM and GES
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TUP 2) RLX 3) ISEE 4) WW 5) BIG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OCEA 2) GRIL 3) ENPH 4) MSTR 5) RIOT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (BLK)/7.70
• (C)/1.68
• (JPM)/3.37
• (PNC)/3.64
• (UNH)/6.08
• (WFC)/1.14
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for March is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in Feb.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for March is estimated unch. versus a -.4% decline in Feb.
• The Export Price Index MoM for March is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for March is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.4% decline in Feb.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for March is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.1% decline in Feb.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas MoM for March is estimated to fall -.6% versus unch. in Feb.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in Feb.
• Capacity Utilization for March is estimated to rise to 79.1% versus 78.0% in Feb.
• Manufacturing Production for March is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in Feb.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in Jan.
• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for April is estimated at 62.0 versus 62.0 in March.
• Univ. of Mich. 1-Yr Inflation Expectations for April is estimated to rise to +3.7% versus +3.6% in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Weller speaking, German Wholesale PPI report, (MVIS) investor day and the AACR annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.5 -.8
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 60.2% of Issues Advancing, 36.6% Declining
• 33 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 46.2%(+3.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 -2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.3 +.49%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,856.4 +.92%
  
• Vix 18.2 -4.7%
• Total Put/Call .68 -29.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.05 -35.2%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• US-Saudi Oil Pact Breaking Down as Russia Grabs Upper Hand.
• Milk May Become a Hurdle in Modi’s Inflation Fight in India.
• Asia Stocks Decline as US CPI Boosts Fed Rate Bets: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rises to 2023 High on Mounting Signs of Tighter Supplies.
• US Core Inflation Slows Only a Bit, Keeping Fed on Track to Hike.
• Fed Leans Toward Another Hike, Defying Staff’s Recession Outlook.
• Bank Failures Force Fed Officials to Temper Rate Hike Expectations.
• Dish Drops to 24-Year Low on Concerns About Subscriber Losses.
• Bloomberg Retracts Story on Trading of Bond Futures Before CPI.
• IBM Considering Sale of Unit that Owns Weather Channel, Weather Underground.

Wall Street Journal:

• The U.S. Cracked a $3.4 Billion Crypto Heist—and Bitcoin’s Anonymity.
• U.S. Seeks to Boost EVs With Toughest Rules on Emissions.
• Biden’s EPA Remakes the Auto Industry. His new car rules are a de facto order to make and buy EVs.
• EPA Standards Miss Many Chemicals in Drinking Water.
• What to Know About ‘Forever Chemicals,’ or PFAS, and Your Health.

Fox News:

• Fellow Dems turn on Feinstein, call for her to resign from Senate after hospitalization.
• Devastating Texas explosion leaves at least 18,000 cows dead and one person critically injured.

CNBC.com:

• Juul to pay $462 million to settle youth vaping claims from six states, D.C.
• Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show.
• JPMorgan wealth CEO Erdoes says bank knew of Epstein sex accusations in 2006, USVI alleges.
• Warren Buffett says we’re not through with bank failures.
  

MarketWatch:

• ‘I’ve seen people do stupid things all my life’: Warren Buffett doubles down on his long held views on bitcoin and crypto.
• National CineMedia goes bankrupt and the stock more than doubles on massive volume.
• Alibaba shares fall as SoftBank reportedly sells most of its stake.
• Food inflation slowed in March, but some items are still up by 36%.

Zero Hedge:

• Who Is Running Stanford?
• "Burned Alive:" Explosion Kills 18,000 Cows In Texas
• Trump Vows To 'Never Drop Out' Of 2024 Race, Even If Convicted
• San Francisco City Hall Meeting On Crime Canceled After Vandalism Knocks Out Internet.
• Ken Griffin Donates $300 Million To Harvard.
• Illinois Trucking Company's Sudden Shutdown Leaves Team Drivers Stranded, Unpaid.
• FTX Has Recovered $7.3 Billion In Assets, Will Consider Rebooting Exchange.
• Independent Investigation Finds "No Human Error" In Maricopa County Poll Day Printer Debacle.
• FOMC Minutes Show Staff Expect 'Mild Recession', All Members Backed Continued QT, 25bps Hike.
• Hunter Biden Business Partners, Associates Visited Obama White House Over 80 Times.
• US stocks were ultimately lower Wednesday, fading the post-CPI rally, with tech leading the weakness - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Bar Owners Say Customers Have Stopped Ordering Bud Light After Transgender Ad Campaign.
• Kirby Addresses Pentagon Leak Showing US Special Forces On Ground In Ukraine.
• Stocks and bonds unwind CPI rally but Dollar fails to recover - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• There's No Such Thing As "Excess Profits"; Only Excess Government.
• Hawkish FedSpeak & Recession Fears Spoil The 'Cool' CPI Party.

Newsmax:   

• Trump Hits Former Lawyer Michael Cohen With $500M Lawsuit.
• Rep. Greg Steube: Bragg Wrong, House Has 'Authority, Jurisdiction'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• JUST IN: Former NHL Player Dead of a Heart Attack at Age 38.
• Sen. Marco Rubio Demands Probe on ActBlue Following Reports of Hundreds of Thousands of Likely Illegal Donations to Democrats – Totally Ignored by Republican Party.
• Biden EPA Administrator Announces New Tailpipe Emission Standards – Will Force Green New Deal Mandates on Cars, Delivery Trucks, Buses, Transit and More! (VIDEO).
• Arkansas Gov. Sarah Sanders Signs Bill Banning Parole for Rapists, Murderers, And Human Traffickers.
• HERE WE GO AGAIN! Stunning VIDEOS Show Akron, OH Businesses Boarding Up Windows In Anticipation of BLM/Antifa Terrorists Destroying Their City Over Upcoming Ruling on Jayland Walker Case.
• “F**k Catholics” – Biden Regime Offers Sweetheart Deal to Trans Terrorist Who Vandalized Catholic Church and Assaulted Church Worker.
• Anheuser-Busch Suffers Astounding $5 Billion Loss, While Bud Light’s New Brand Ambassador, Dylan Mulvaney Whines and Blames Consumers: “They don’t understand me” [VIDEO].
• Several Top Big Tech Firms Lay Off Thousands While Hiring Thousands of Foreigners.
• Trudeau Foundation CEO and Board Resign Over Beijing-Linked  Donation – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Denies Any Involvement – Canada Struggles Against Chinese Election Meddling.
• Mass Casualty Incident Declared After Explosion at Dairy Farm in Dimmitt, Texas – Nearly 20,000 Cattle Die (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Trump Accuses Macron of Pandering to China Following Taiwan Remarks.
• Tesla’s Dependency on China ‘Very Concerning’: US House Committee Chair.

Twitter: 

• @kksheld - James O'Keefe's investigation reveals numerous suspicious donations to the Democrats - American Thinker.
• @zerohedge - Inflation adjusted wages are down for a record 24th consecutive month. That's 92% of Biden's entire presidency. (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 947,487 Reports(+1,667 from prior week) Through March 24th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.25 -2.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 69.75 -1.0 basis point. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 117.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.4 +.5%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.11 -3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 -.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.