Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Tensions High on Agenda as G-7 Diplomats Meet in Japan.
• Blinken Looks to Deepen Vietnam Ties as China Tensions Simmer.
• Tesla’s Price War Pushes Xpeng to Focus on Cheaper Manufacturing.
• Bomb Targeting Japan PM Complicates Timing of Election, BOJ Move.
• Sudan Death Toll Mounts as Clashes Escalate on Second Day.
• US Stock Futures Rise, Currencies in Tight Ranges: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Fourth Weekly Advance as IEA Warns of Higher Prices.
• World Gas Supply Shifts From Shortage to Glut With Demand Muted.
• Fuel That Powers the Global Economy Is Flashing Recession Signs.
• Merck-Moderna Vaccine Helps Keytruda Keep Melanoma Patients Cancer-Free.
• CVC Is in Talks to Buy Network International for £2 Billion.
• Engaged Couples Issue Verdict on Bed Bath & Beyond.  
• In Morgan Stanley CEO Race, Wealth Boss Emerges as One to Watch.
• Google ‘Racing’ to Build New AI Tools for Search, NYT Says.
• Apple Plans to Launch More Than Just Its New Headset at WWDC. 
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Your Sunday US Briefing: Regional Banks and a Rocket for Mars.

Wall Street Journal:

• Banks Finally Face Pressure to Pay Depositors More.
• A Texas-Sized Energy Fiasco. Austin passes subsidies for gas power to counter wind-power subsidies that have destabilized the state electric grid.
• Lula Cozies Up to America’s Enemies. Biden’s presidential pal in Brazil moves closer to a global cast of dictators.
• GM Ditches Apple CarPlay on EVs.
• Joe Manchin’s Faux Betrayal and an Endless Green Bill of Goods. The Inflation Reduction Act is welfare for the rich, not investment for places like West Virginia.
• Saudi Arabia Transfers Nearly $78 Billion of Aramco Shares to Wealth Fund.
• Online Account Overseen by Ex-Navy Member Aided Spread of Secrets.
• Determined to Flee China, Thousands Take Long Route to the Southern U.S. Border.
• Fed Pause Wouldn’t Necessarily Refresh Stock Market.
• Inflation Tests Global Economy That Weathered Covid, War.
• Moderna Shows Progress Toward Cancer Vaccines.
• Does Your Résumé Pass the Six-Second Test?
• Fox News, Dominion Prepare for Battle in $1.6 Billion Defamation Trial.
• Green-Energy Projects Spark Anti-China Backlash.
• WeightWatchers Gets a Makeover With Obesity-Drug Business.
• Iran Makes Fresh Push to Force Women to Wear Hijab.

Fox News:

• State bill to allow medical transgender interventions on minors without parental consent.
• Police shoot and kill armed homeowner after responding to wrong house.
• Hundreds of kids terrorize streets of Chicago, destroying property and attacking tourists.
• Mass shooting leaves at least four people dead and 20 others hurt at birthday party in Alabama.
• Democrats' favorite green mode of transportation is causing explosions and even death.
• Transgender teacher baffled companies would partner with 'juvenile' Mulvaney.

CNBC:

• No date for coal phase out as G-7 environment ministers wrap meeting in Japan.
• The $25,000 EV is coming, with big implications for car makers and buyers.
• Merck to buy Prometheus Biosciences for about $11 billion.
• Top Wall Street analysts say buy these stocks amid the latest macroeconomic uncertainty.

Zero Hedge: 

• Dramatic Video Shows Indian Gangster-Turned-Politician Gun Down On Live TV.
• Biden Announces New Actions On Secret Documents After 'Embarrassing' Leak.
• Both Bulls And Bears Have Experienced Multiple "Lucy" Moments In The Past Year.
• Border Patrol "Brace For F**king Impact" As End Of Trump-Era Immigration Policy Looms.
• CVS 'Gender Transition' Guide Requires Use Of Preferred Pronouns, Sharing Bathrooms.
• US Appeals Court Judge Rejects ProPublica Story On Justice Clarence Thomas.
• All Hell Breaks Out In Chicago As Hundreds Of Teenagers Wreak Havoc.
• South Korea Fires Warning Shots At North Korean Patrol Boat That Breached Boundary.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Macleod: It's All Hotting Up.
• Community Leaders Furious Over Businesses Leaving Chicago - Refuse To Take Responsibility.
• The Empty Downtown - A New Normal?
• What We Know About Jack Teixeira, Accused Of Involvement In Classified Documents Leak.
• California's Cautionary Clean Energy.
• More Than 20 Shot At Alabama Party.
• Italy ChatGPT Ban: Data Watchdog Demands Transparency To Lift Restriction.
• Deadliest Q1 Since 2017 For Mediterranean Migrant Crossing.
• TME Weekend: Squeeze 5.0.
• Europe's Energy Troubles Continue: Hydro And Nuclear Output Declining.
• Sudan: All-Out War Erupts In Clash Of Rival Military Forces - Casualties Mount.
• The Global Great Awokening.
• Watch: Beyond The Reset.
• They Must Have A Good Reason.
• US Criticizes China's Death Sentence Of 'Wrongfully Detained' American Citizen.
• Hacking Humanity: Transhumanism.

MarketWatch.com:

• Social Security’s expected shortfall sparks debate over tax increases.
• Tesla, Netflix earnings due: Cheaper cars, cheaper content, more workout videos, as ‘earnings recession’ seems likely.

NewsMax:

• Fleitz to Newsmax: Leaks Reveal White House 'Lying to Us'.
• Tenney: EPA's EV Push a 'Hand-Off to China'.  
• House Republicans Chart New Strategy to Pressure Biden, Democrats.
• China Invasion of Taiwan Would Start With Cyberattack on US.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• California Schools’ Lawsuit Claims Social Media Companies are Causing Mental Health Crisis for Children and Teens. 
• “Blew My Mind”- Elon Musk Reveals Disturbing New Details Regarding Government Access to Twitter in Upcoming Interview with Tucker Carlson (VIDEO).
• Buttigieg Says Traffic Fatalities Happen Because of “A Lot of Reasons Related to Discrimination” (VIDEO).
• ‘Reign’: New Israeli Spyware Targeting Journalists All Over the World.
• Conservatives Are Looking For Ways To Boycott And Move Spending Away From Woke Corporations – Here Is One Way To Do It.
• SNL Goes All In on Supporting Mutilating Children, Has ‘Non-Binary’ Cast Member Go on Rant About ‘Protecting’ Trans Kids (VIDEO).
• California Power Companies Propose Fixed-Rate Bill Based on Income, Not Usage.
• Former Planned Parenthood Director Commits Suicide as Child Porn Investigation Intensifies.
• 7 Killed, Including Child, at Central Mexico Swimming Resort.
• EXCLUSIVE: GA Gov Kemp, Who Certified 2020 Election in State, Now Creating a New GOP Where Trump Supporters Will Have No Voice.
•   Piers Morgan Demolishes Dem Katie Porter for Attacking All American Swimmer Riley Gaines.
• UN Wants to Decriminalize Sex Between Minors and Adults.
• California Church Fined $1.2 Million for Holding Services During COVID – But Dems Who Broke Rules Get Nothing.
• Mark Levin and Conservative Media Now Reporting on “Voter Mules” First Reported by TGP After 2022 Election.
• Minneapolis Public Schools Holds ‘Gender Resource Fair’ Complete With Drag Queen Story Hour.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Defense Minister to Visit Russia for Talks With Military Leaders.
• US Should ‘Immediately’ Cut Off Flow of American Capital to Chinese AI Firms, Rep. Gallagher Says.

Twitter:

• @RWMaloneMD - “Rapid-onset gender dysphoria” results from group-think contagion effects and novel social pressures. Follow the money- billions are being made on trans surgeries and drugs. 5th-gen warfare tactics are being deployed to brainwash youth to think this is what the cool kids do.
• @USBurning - Army Trainee Had Two Heart Attacks After COVID-19 Vaccine. Now, She’s Likely To Be Discharged.
• @zerohedge - Mike Wilson Says A "Credit Crunch Has Started" And Margins Are Falling "Gradually, Then Suddenly" (graph)
• @NickTimiraos - WSJ survey: Economists have turned more pessimistic about inflation. Most see headline CPI falling to 3.5% this year, versus 3.1% in the January survey. Three in five economists don’t anticipate Fed rate cuts this year after a final 25 bps hike in May. (graph)
  
• @YahooFinance - Stocks have rebounded from a tough 2022, but retail traders are still feeling the pain. The average retail investor portfolio is down by about 27% since November 2021, according to data compiled by VandaTrack Research. (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 949,138 Reports(+1,651 from prior week) Through March 31st, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.25 +.25 basis point
  
• China Sovereign CDS 67.25 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 114.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.88 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.9 +1.0%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.15 -2.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.45%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.
• S&P 500 futures +.22%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Says US Sanctions of Companies Will Impact Supply Chain.
• Yi Says China Largely Ended Currency Intervention in Market Tilt.
• China Searches for Clearer Signs of Economic Momentum: Eco Week.
• Ukraine Latest: Prigozhin Says Moscow Could Declare Goals Met.
• Battles Erupt in Sudan as Militia Fights Army to Rule Nation.
• A $300,000 Salary Feels Like $100,000 in The Priciest US Cities.
• Five Things to Watch in What Will Be an Ugly Earnings Season.
• Boeing’s New 737 Woes Are an Ugly Plot Twist in a Comeback Tale.
• Bond Traders to Scour Bank Results for Signs of Increased Stress.
• Yellen Says Slow Pullback on Lending Could Do Some of Fed’s Work.

Wall Street Journal:

• Leaks Show Extent of U.S. Electronic Snooping.
• A Tense Wait for an Imprisoned Son.
• Economists Turn More Pessimistic on Inflation.
• Bank Failures Rattle Market for Short-Term Lending.
• California Braces for More Flooding When Record Snowpack Melts.
• Railroad Group Cancels Order to Change Wheels on Hundreds of Railcars.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (EQH), (CRBG), (GL), (PRI), (RGA), (UNM), (VOYA), (FERG) and (BLDR).

Fox News:

• China 'hopes and believes' prominent NATO member will support its takeover of Taiwan.
• China's latest signal communist country could be preparing for conflict on world stage.
• Blurred lines over artificial intelligence porn become very clear in one state.
• Train carrying hazardous materials derails, residents warned to 'stay clear'.

CNBC:

• Why the surge in summer travel airfare, hotel prices won’t slow down.
• This one-of-a-kind suite of ETFs may help investors during economic slumps.
• These are the tech jobs most threatened by ChatGPT and A.I.
• Best Buy lays off hundreds of store employees as shopping trends shift.
• Amazon’s worker safety hazards come under fire from regulators and the DOJ.
• Ukraine awaits U.S. missile system after latest Russian strike.
• Trump has raised $34 million so far in 2023, including the indictment bump.

Zero Hedge:  

• China Is Preparing For War; Is The US Ready?
• IMF Unveils New Global Currency Known As The "Universal Monetary Unit" To "Transform" World Economy. 
• Commercial Real Estate Is The "Boa Constrictor" That Will Crush The Economy And "Force The Fed To Restart QE".
• Cash App Founder's Death Sprang From Dispute Over Suspect's Sister: Court Docs.
• X.AI - Musk Reportedly Creating ChatGPT Artificial Intelligence Rival.
• Furious Viewers Complain En Masse About New UK TV Show With Adult Men Stripping Naked For Kids.
• Wagner Chief Calls On Putin To Declare End Of War, "Gain Firm Foothold" On Held Territories.
• Three "risky" charts to watch.
• How AI Can Track, Manipulate Voters.
• The Biden Administration Is Once Again Tightening Rules On Vehicles Emissions.
• Contentious COVID-19 Drugs Are All Anti-Malarial: May Not Be A Coincidence.
• Anheuser-Busch Transitions Into Damage Control Mode - And People Aren't Buying It. 
• Visualizing Air Pollution Levels Around The World In 2022.
• US Arms Industry Planning 1st Taiwan Trip In Years To Talk Joint Production.
• Japanese PM Evacuated After Blast Rocks Campaign Event.
• "We've Been Warned": El Nino Watch Initiated As Ag-Industry In Crosshairs.
• China's 'M&A King' Bao Fan Vanished, Rocking Country’s Financial Sector.
• Doug Casey On Why The US Is Headed Into Its 'Fourth Turning'.
• Advocacy Groups Call On Meta To Ban Minors From 'Dangerous' Metaverse.
• California's Last Nuclear Power Plant Diablo Faces Closure Against Lawsuit.
• Sex Toys, Cotton Candy, Red Piano: Influencers Write Off Ridiculous Items.
• Where It's Hardest To Afford A Home.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Online gaming chats have long been spy risk for US military.

NewsMax:

• Rudy Giuliani: DAs in 'Soros-Purchased Cities' Killing People. 
• Gordon Chang: China Wants 'an Accident' to Lead to War.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Annheiser Busch (An InBev) CEO was a Former CIA Recruitment Specialist.
• Still Nothing from Corrupt DOJ After Ex White House Aide Provides Evidence of Biden Crimes – Dan Ball Discusses with TGP’s Joe Hoft on OANN. 
• Presumed Guilty: DOJ Sinks to a New Low in its Treatment of Yvette Wang.
• Leaked CVS ‘Gender Transition Guidelines’ Require Staff to Use ‘Preferred Pronouns,’ Let Men Use Women’s Restrooms.
• Inflation Bites: Americans Cut Back On Spending In Multiple Industries.
• Wall Street Has an Epstein Problem – And Trouble Is Brewing At the Courts.
• Why Is No One Asking Why The Left Is Fighting So Hard To Keep Porn On The Shelves of Our Children’s School Libraries?
• Lt. Col. Vindman Admitted Leaking Documents Meant To Help Dems Impeach Trump—Never Served Time, While 21-Yr-Old Jack Teixeira Was Arrested For The Same Crime.
• Bud Light Shares Weekend Tweet, Gets Absolutely Savaged in the Comments.
• The 21 Year Old Leaker — Something Is Not Right.
• Broken City of Detroit Launches Reparations Task Force Which Wants ‘No-Strings Cash’.
• Democrats Who Have Allowed Crime to Flourish in Chicago Outraged About Closure of Walmart Stores (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times: 

• GOP Lawmaker Reintroduces Bill to Keep Sensitive US Technology Out of Chinese Military’s Hands.

Twitter:

• @unusual_whales - 78% of Americans do not feel confident that life for their children’s generation will be better than their own, the highest percent ever, per WSJ.
• @VigilantFox - 'Skyrocketing' Incidents of Pilot Incapacitations Raises Red Flags About Flight Safety There have been seven pilot incapacitations and three young pilot deaths just in the past month, reported Dr. @MakisMD. 
• @againstgrmrs - Detransitioner was given free hormones after a single one hour visit. How is this in any way ethical?
• @robbystyarbuck - Wow. More troops are sending me examples of wokeness on base.
• @TheInsidePaper - JUST IN. Marjorie Taylor Greene sends letter to Defense Sec. Austin demanding answers on US military’s involvement in Ukraine after leaked documents reportedly say Special Forces have been operating on the ground in Ukraine.
• @ClownWorld_ - Sick world. (video)
• @charliebilello - CMBS spreads are approaching 1,000 bps, their widest levels since March 2020. (graph)
  
• @IGSquawk - Weekend markets update: #DAX 15690 +0.02% #DOW 33539 +0.00% #NASDAQ 13070 0.00% #FTSE 7762 -0.06% #HANGSENG 20505 -0.12% #GBPUSD 12419 -0.02% #EURUSD 10909 +0.03% #USDJPY 13218 +0.01%.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 949,138 Reports(+1,651 from prior week) Through March 31st, 2023. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• US Economy Is Cooling Steadily as Consumers, Factories Pull Back.
• Summers Warns US Is Getting ‘Lonely’ as Other Powers Band Together.
• Bank Stress, Inflation and Rising Recession Odds Fail to Sway Stocks.
• Schwab Faces Fresh Risks in the Zero-Fee Landscape It Shaped.
• How to Get a 7% Return Without Buying Risky Equities. 
• FedEx Pilots Ratchet Up Labor Talks With Vote on Possible Strike.
• Biden Says He’s Planning Re-Elect Bid As Ireland Tour Concludes. 
• PNC’s Trimmed Revenue Forecast Isn’t a Good Sign for Regional Banks.
• Molson Outperforms Anheuser-Busch After Backlash From Bud Light’s Influencer Collaboration.
• El-Erian Terrified of Central Banks Losing Autonomy Over Errors.
• Increase in US Bank Loans and Deposits Signal Some Stability.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Military Recruitment Crisis Is a Symptom of Cultural Rot. We need new leaders to cultivate the American spirit and restore the integrity of institutions.
• Evan Gershkovich’s Family Speaks Out for the First Time Since His Arrest.
• Biden Boils the Religious-Liberty Frog. A series of innocuous-sounding regulations conceal an affront to the American faithful.
• Heard on the Street: No All-Clear for Banks.
• Americans Pull Back on Big-Ticket Purchases.
• Want to Beat the Stock Market? Avoid the Cost of ‘Being Human’.
• India’s Population Surpasses China’s, Shifting the World’s ‘Center of Gravity’.
• Pompeo Says He Won’t Run for President in 2024.
• What Are ‘Millennial Gray’ Homes and Why Are They Making Millennials Cringe?
• Iran Is Recruiting Militant Allies to Launch Attacks Against Israel.
• Need a Social-Media Detox? Start With an Analog Watch

Fox News:

• President Joe Biden's latest energy move deals major blow to climate activists.
• Rock guitarist, band co-founder dead at 46 after battling 'brief illness'.
• TV anchor, executive reportedly dead at 42 after becoming ill during family vacation.

CNBC:

• Over 200 companies seek CHIPS Act funds, Commerce head Raimondo tells Cramer.
• Montana lawmakers pass bill to ban TikTok.
• Today’s homebuyers have their mortgage rate tipping point, and it’s artificially low.
• Jamie Dimon issues warning on rates: ‘It will undress problems in the economy’.
• Boeing’s 737 Max problem is the latest headache for airlines hungry for new planes.
• Nvidia’s top A.I. chips are selling for more than $40,000 on eBay.

Zero Hedge:  

• NYT Lies About Snowden To Peddle 'Evil-Leaker' Propaganda, Then Stealth-Edits When Caught. 
• Where It's Hardest To Afford A Home. 
• Peak EV: Electric Vehicles Will Fade As Their True Costs Become Clear.
• "Joe Biden Is A Criminal" Says Ex-Obama Whistleblower Alleging Family "Kickback Scheme".
• Pentagon Says 11 More US Troops In Syria Diagnosed With Traumatic Brain Injuries.
• Minneapolis Pork Plant In Trouble As Inflation Crimps Demand.
• What The Bud Light Fiasco Reveals About The Ruling Class.
• Watch: Carlson Exposes How Establishment Media Is Desperate To Help Cover Up Info From Intel Leaks.
• Have no fear?
• Disneyland To Close Splash Mountain In May Amid Accusations Of Racist Theme.
• US Commercial Bank Deposits & Loans Rose Last Week; Small Bank Depos Up Most In 4 Months.
• Taibbi: The Crackdown Cometh.
• Stocks and bonds lower after retail sales, bank earnings & Waller - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Hawkish FedSpeak & Stagflation Scares Spark Big Reversal In Markets. 
• 70% Of Americans Are Financially Stressed, 58% Live Paycheck-To-Paycheck.
• Nasdaq's Casino-Like Returns Turns Investment Into Roulette Game.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Why the stock market is still at risk after upbeat earnings from U.S. big banks.
• These five Wall Street veterans have 230 years of combined experience. Here’s why they are bearish on stocks.
• Orange-juice futures are near a record. Sugar is at an 11-year high. And coffee is peaking too. What’s going on?

NewsMax:

• Trump: Guns Not Problem; It's Mental Health, Social, Cultural, Spiritual.
• LinkedIn Co-Founder Funding Rape Suit Against Trump.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Minneapolis Becomes America’s First Major City to Allow Muslim Prayer Call 5 Times a Day.
• The Arrest of a 21-Year-Old National Guard Member for Leaking Classified Docs Leads to More Questions than Answers.
• Where Is the House GOP? Where Are the Jan 6 Videos? Where Is the Real Jan 6 Investigation? Where Is the Investigation into the Corrupt DC Attorneys?
• Katie Hobbs Vetoes Bill to Protect Children from Fentanyl Poisoning.
• Washington State Passes Bill Allowing Government to Take Away Minor From Parents If They Refuse To Agree to Gender Transition Surgery.
• French Courts Uphold Macron Pension Reform, France Erupts in Violence (VIDEO).
• Woke Owners of Nashville Flower Shop Won’t Provide Service For RNC Event…Blames Them For Murder of 3 Children and 3 Staff Members at Christian School by Transgender Terrorist.
• Anheuser-Busch Releases Weak Statement After Losing Billions of Dollars Following its Marketing Campaign with Trans Pervert Dylan Mulvaney.
• Mike Pence Gets Booed At NRA Convention in Indiana (VIDEO).
• US Approves First 3 COVID ‘Vaccine’ Injury Claims, Pays Out A Total of $4,634.89.
• Popular 42-Year-Old NBC Affiliate Anchor Leslie Swick Van Ness Dies Suddenly During Florida Family Vacation.
• “President Trump is Spot On…Take Back Our Justice System from Soros Funded Marxists” – Legal Expert Mike Davis Agrees with President Trump’s Plan to Bring Justice Back to the Legal System.
• WOKE ALERT: Group Announces Text Alert System to Help Shoppers Avoid Products from Woke Companies.
• “Honestly, I Don’t Believe Anything” – Tucker Asks – Why Is Mainstream Media Celebrating Arrest of Leaker Who Shared Truth About US Actions in Ukraine?
• Conservative Student at Virginia College Shares Pro-Life Message On Campus, Doxed and Threatened. 
• New CDC Report: Suicide Is Now The Second Leading Cause Of Death Of Americans Under-35, Jumps 4% In A Year – Are COVID and Mental Health Medications to Blame?

The Epoch Times:

• GOP Lawmaker Reintroduces Bill to Keep Sensitive US Technology Out of Chinese Military’s Hands.

Twitter:

• @TraderFloorAudio - China ‘Belt and Road’ grew out of a lending spree. Now those loans may be its problem ... CNBC Decade after the Belt & Road project’s rollout, observers say the ambitious plan to build infrastructure trade links across Eurasia and beyond is losing steam.
• @charliekirk11 - This line buried in WaPo coverage of Ukraine docs leaker is interesting to say the least:
• @RepThomasMassie - Your primary care provider was bribed to suggest you should take the COVID vaccine.
• @MattWalshBlog - This is one of the great human rights abuses of our time. Women who are totally vulnerable and voiceless are being forced to share prison cells with male rapists and murderers. It is a direct violation of the 8th amendment. Utterly indefensible. Very important report here:
• @darren_stallcup - Americans of all different colors, creeds and religions are suffering from Fentanyl. Everywhere you look in #SanFrancisco there are bodies on the ground. Women and Children are NOT safe. This is a humanitarian crisis. (video)
• @Xx17965797N - Kuwait News has introduced a virtual news anchor with artificial intelligence who will soon start reading online bulletins on Twitter. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 949,138 Reports(+1,651 from prior week) Through March 31st, 2023. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,130.2 +.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 33,835.9 +.9%

• NASDAQ 12,106.9 -.3%

• Russell 2000 1,777.49 +.94%

• NYSE FANG+ 6,032.44 -1.3% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 6.55 +3.6%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 140.82 +3.6%

• Wilshire 5000 41,234.3 +.41%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,456.20 -.18%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,518.98 +.72%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 785.28 -.40%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,086.15 -.21%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,093.6 -1.3%

• Transports 14,249.4 +1.6%

• Utilities 956.4 -1.5%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 82.3 +3.8%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.71 +.49%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,460.03 +.07%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 921.72 -.05%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 459,361 +1.0%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.2 +91.7%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 197 +297
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -25.5 -16.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 226,127 +24.9%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,858,446 +4.1%

• Total Put/Call .86 -16.0%

• OEX Put/Call 1.38 -36.3%

• ISE Sentiment 92.0 -13.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .88 +5.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.0 +8.4%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 20.0 +49.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -3.96 +11.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -3.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.04% +73.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.0 -1.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.0 -6.1%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.6 -2.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,009.0 +.6%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  58.7 -14.2
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.277 Trillion +.58%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.994 Million

• AAII % Bulls 26.1 -21.6%

• AAII % Bears 34.5 -1.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 275.6 +1.3%

• Crude Oil 80.7/bbl. +8.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 283.9 +.9%

• Natural Gas 2.10 +4.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.1 euros/megawatt-hour -9.2%
  

• Heating Oil 263.9 -.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 190.3 (1,000/metric ton) -7.4%
  

• Gold 2,004.2 -.21%
• Silver 25.3 +1.5%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 450.3 +2.7%

• Copper 411.6 +2.5%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 430.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.7 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%

• Lumber  384.9 +9.0%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,588.2 +1.2%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 375.0 USD/Short Ton -1.4%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +2.17% +70.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 65.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.23 -22.6%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 308.5 +152.1%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.83 -.13:  Growth Rate +1.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.4 +.2 
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% -4.0 basis points
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.0 -16.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.4 -8.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 +2.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.5-4.75%, 19.8%(-9.0 percentage points) chance of no change, 80.2%(+9.0 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.0-5.25% on 5/3
  

• US Dollar Index 101.6 -.3%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,696.81 +.48%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 30,296.0 +7.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.63 +2.1%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -57.75 +1.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.52% +13.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.578 Trillion -.20% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $67.921 Billion -4.4%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.5 +3.0%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 170.20 -2.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 +1.0 basis point
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.9 -.99%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.6 -7.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 217.85 -6.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.1 +3.5%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.3 -.2%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.9 unch.

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.5% -10.0 basis points
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +6.0% -30.0 basis points
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +8.5% -100.0 basis points
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Rents YoY 6.15% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.58% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +5.12% -10.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31% +5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 25.0 -18.5 basis points
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 -6.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 +3.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 74.2 -4.9%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 229.0 -6.0% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 -58.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 95.39 -9.0%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 366.41 -1.9%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 231.50 -3.4%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 694.0 +5.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 unch.
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -2.4% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,146.0 +1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 240,000 +.95%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% -10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 48.5 -1.1%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.80% +4.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 229,500 +5.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.5% -160.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 n/a
• Box Office Weekly Gross $235.2M +63.2%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.66/gallon +.08/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,463.0 -4.1%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 942.1 -1.13%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 47.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 43.7 -2.8%

• Rail Freight Carloads 225,667 -3.6%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,437,708 +16.5%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.4%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.2%

Leading Sectors

• Agriculture +3.4%

• I-Banking +3.3%
• Oil Service +3.1%
  

• Homebuilding +2.8%
  

• Steel +2.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Regional Banks -1.2%
  

• Software -1.3%
  

• Utilities -1.5%

• REITs -1.8%
  

• Social Media -2.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (4)

• NRIX, JPM, QDEL and C
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (20)

•  OLED, PSA, NGG, GBX, RLAY, HIG, WAFD, SITM, ASAI, PAAS, CLDX, NOW, CARG, MLTX, BA, OEC, RIVN, QNST, SPR and CTLT
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change