Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Regional Banks -6.4% 2) Oil Service -5.0% 3) Steel -3.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TRMD, CVI, BMO, VNOM, CM, LNG, LJJ, SEDG, GPN, PBA, PAA, E, SHEL, LGIH, COCO, AL, COF, PAGP, NCR, FANG, HOLX, CELH, COUR, AYX NWL, KDNY, CCRN, SGRY, RELX, ITW, SCI, TASK, TS, OZK, DX, FHB,NYCB, QNST, FMC, MED, PGR, PJT, HRZN, DV, CFG, BSM, CVBF, PUBM, ATGE, INCY, STNG, TPVG, EWBC, WSBC, NRDS, DD, BOH, INMD, BP, NSSC, PPBI, TWO, DUOL, RNA, AXNA, CMA, ZBRA, SEE, ZION, TOP, SYM, LDS, WAL, TOP, PINC, IEP and TVTX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IVZ 2) IEP 3) IOT 4) OZK 5) ZION
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IEP 2) CHGG 3) PACW 4) ANET 5) MCB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.0%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Gold & Silver +2.1% 2) Restaurants -.2% 3) Pharma -.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WWD, AMRC, UBER, TAP, RMBS, SFM, SIBN, PLRX, ZI, FLS, ZBH, STAG and TEX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VICI 2) MSGS 3) IEP 4) CHGG 5) SBLK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HOUR 2) AMRC 3) SFM 4) SIBN 5) TAP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (ALGT)/2.30
• (GOLD)/.12
• (EAT)/1.19
• (BG)/3.24
• (CDW)/2.03
• (CVS)/2.09
• (EMR)/.98
• (EL)/.51
• (EXC)/.66
• (FDP)/.60
• (GRMN)/1.01
• (GNRC)/.50
• (HBI)/-.07
• (KHC)/.60
• (LPX)/.05
• (MUR)/.98
• (PSX)/3.56
• (SMG)/3.47
• (SPWR)/.00 
• (UTHR)/4.71
• (WING)/.45
• (WWE)/.41
• (YUM)/1.13
  

After the Close: 

• (ALB)/7.05
• (ALL)/-1.01
• (APA)/.97
• (CTSH)/1.05
• (DEN)/1.38
• (ETSY)/.90
• (FSLY)/-.10
• (HST)/.48
• (IR)/.52
• (KTOS)/.04
• (KLIC)/.26
• (LMND)/-1.08
• (MRO)/.58
• (MELI)/3.31
• (MET)/1.86
• (MOS)/1.25
• (MYGN)/-.19
• (NE)/.11
• (PSA)/3.99
• (QCOM)/2.16
• (RYN)/.10
• (STAA)/.09
• (RGR)/.97
• (SUM)/-.36
• (SYNA)/1.86
• (TRIP)/.06
• (OLED)/.82
• (VSTO)/.90
• (WERN)/.71
• (WMB)/.49
• (YELL)/-.88
• (ZG)/.10
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST:

• The ADP Employment Change for April is estimated to rise to 148K versus 145K in March.
  

10:00 am EST:

• The ISM Services Index for April is estimated to rise to 51.8 versus 51.2 in March.
• ISM Services Prices Paid for April.
  

10:30 am EST:

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -481,570 barrels versus a -5,054,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -936,430 barrels versus a -2,408,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -904,140 barrels versus a -577,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.47% versus a +.3% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate +25.0 basis points to 5.0-5.25%.

Upcoming Splits

• (SMH) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC Press Conference, China Services PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (PGR) investor event could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +23.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.6 -3.4
  
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 11.9% of Issues Advancing, 86.2% Declining
• 30 New 52-Week Highs, 126 New Lows
• 37.4%(-10.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.0 -14
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.1 -7.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,094.2 +.8%
• 1-Day Vix 16.5 +64.3%
  
• Vix 19.0 +18.2% 
  
• Total Put/Call 1.01 +5.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.43 +47.9%
  

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.5 unch. 

• China Sovereign CDS 72.25 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.1 +1.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .14 +7.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.2 +1.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.7 -.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .41%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.7 +2.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.7 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 +.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.9 -3.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 -17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.10 +14.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.6 +1.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 379.51 -1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 399.0 -1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.6 +.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 360.10 +.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.4 -1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 234.8 -1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.7 -.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 27.25 basis points +4.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 698.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.01% -6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.77%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.0 -3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -5.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.3 -3.3 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.56 +.83:  Growth Rate +2.2% +.3 percentage point, P/E 18.4 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.27% -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .10 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.50 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -56.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.84% +18.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 67.1%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 61.2%(+5.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +162 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +14 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long