Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Video Gaming -2.0% 2) Internet -1.6% 3) Banks -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PYPL, UPST NTR, PUK, CPRX, WMG, AGTI, HPK, APP, ZG, SPOT, JKS, SPWR, ABB, TCMD, AU, BOH, CMA, ZIP, ARQT, TRMD, BMBL, BILI, VNO, RVNC, IGMS, AFRM, GDS, CTLT, W, TWLO, TGTX, RNG, TOST, TSE, YETI, SUPN, ACLX, EHAB, TRUP, JD, CVI, SMG, RIVN, BE, COHR, SANM, SAVA, GN, U, CVNA and HROW
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CG 2) BE 3) ONON 4) FSLR 5) YETI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CMA 2) CARR 3) HPQ 4) SPB 5)PACW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Computer Services +.2% 2) Steel +.1% 3) Utilities unch.

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FSLR, ARRY, NXT, TH, IEP, SIBN, MTZ, MRVI, BYND and ENPH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CG 2) BE 3) ONON 4) AX 5) WMB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GETR 2) FSLR 3) ARLO 4) NXT 5) LGIQ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CTLT)/.59
• (SFL)/.13
• (TSEM)/.47
• (TPG)/.33
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for May is estimated to fall to -4.0 versus 10.8 in April.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking, Eurogroup Meeting, BofA Metals/Mining/Steel Conference, JMP Securities Life Sciences Conference, (MOH) investor day, (LSCC) investor day and the (JKHY) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -12.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 +.1
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 50.5% of Issues Advancing, 46.5% Declining
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 43 New Lows
• 41.1%(+3.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0 +2
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.4 +1.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,512.2 -.2%
• 1-Day Vix 10.6 -23.6%
  
• Vix 16.7 -1.4% 
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +5.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.50 +40.2%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Is Scaring Away Foreign Investors That Its Cities Want.
• China Housing Rebound Fizzling Shows Risks to Economic Recovery.
• SoftBank Stock Drops After Vision Fund Loses Money Again.
• China’s Copper Woes Damp Spirits of Traders in Asia.
• Japan Stocks, US Futures Edge Up; USTs Hold Rally: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rises as US Signals It Aims to Refill Oil Reserve After June.
• Musk Says Twitter to Purge Inactive Accounts and Followers May Drop.
• Lyft Will Discontinue Pooled Rides, Launch New Airport Feature.
• Carl Icahn’s Firm OKs Buybacks, Increases Shares Backing His Debt.
• Fees Thwart Switching Cloud Computing Providers, Critics Say.
• Ken Griffin’s Hand-Picked Math Prodigy Runs Market-Making Empire.
• Jamie Dimon Says US Needs to 'Finish' the Bank Crisis.
• Fed’s Kashkari Says Inflation Too High, Wages Softened Somewhat.
• Google and Amazon’s Social Shopping Push Threatens Reign of Instagram Influencers.

Zero Hedge:

• Top Ten Moments From Trump's CNN Town Hall; AOC And Jake Tapper Livid
• US Failure To Recognize Natural Immunity Negatively Affected Pandemic Response: NIH Scientist
• "We Have Reached Our Limit": NYC Suspends Shelter Rules Ahead Of Title 42 Expiration.
• Senator Ron Johnson: 'We Have Evidence Hunter Biden Paid Sex-Trafficked Prostitutes And The Media Isn't Even Looking Into It'.
• Taiwan Says Its Military Won't Let The US Blow Up Semiconductor Factories.
• FBI Stonewalls On Smoking Gun Document Alleging Biden Family 'Criminal Scheme'.
• Two Youths Commit Suicide In Taxpayer-Funded Cross-Sex Hormone Study.
• Bond Turmoil As Biden Delays Debt Ceiling Meeting, Treasury Cash Burn Accelerates.
• Biden's Ex-Disinfo Queen Slaps Fox With Defamation Suit.
• US stocks were mostly lower as regional banking concerns resurfaced - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Here's How To Hedge The Coming Debt Ceiling Crisis.
• DHS Producing Videos Teaching Citizens How To Identify "Radicalized" Conservatives.
• The "what if" bull.
• Weaponizing Death.
• Fed Emergency Bank Loans Soared As Money Market Inflows Continue To Surge.
• Risk-sentiment sours on more bank woes but GOOGL offers respite for Nasdaq - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Mouse-House Mullered, Banks Battered, But Mega-Cap Tech Turbocharged.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• The Executive Who Keeps Tesla Rolling Isn’t Elon Musk.
• SoftBank Shifts War Chest to AI.
• NBCUniversal’s Linda Yaccarino Is in Talks to Become Twitter CEO.
• Biden’s CIA Assist in the 2020 Presidential Election. The agency, not only retirees, turns out to have worked on the Hunter excuse letter.
• Homes in This Community Cost Millions, Have ‘Frozen’ Bedrooms.
• Migrant Influx Overwhelms Border as Title 42 Ends.

CNBC.com:

• Debt ceiling meeting between Biden and congressional leaders postponed until next week.
• Meta unveils A.I. ‘testing playground’ to help advertisers build campaigns.
• Elon Musk says he’s stepping down as Twitter CEO, will oversee product.
• PacWest shares tumble 20% after regional bank says deposits fell 9.5% last week.
• Pfizer CEO says Medicare will likely face legal action over drug price negotiations.
• Google’s new A.I. search could hurt traffic to websites, publishers worry.
• Bitcoin falls below $27,000 as U.S. regulatory crackdown pressures crypto market makers.
  

MarketWatch:

• Profit risks for 10 large regional banks: How a reversal of pandemic deposit trends could cut earnings.
• ‘1.5 billion square feet of office space could become obsolete,’ says Boston Consulting Group.
• Peloton stock closes at new all-time low after recall announcement.
• Rivian, Lucid and Fisker navigate a ‘treacherous road’ as they struggle to match Tesla’s success.
• ‘The Fed is way late and they’ve already screwed it up.’ This stock strategist is banking on gold, silver and Treasurys to weather a recession.

Newsmax:

• Biden, McCarthy Debt Limit Meet Delayed;  Cuts Now on the Table.
• Peter Reagan: Why Is Janet Yellen Panic-Calling CEOs?

Fox News:

• Democrats and independent voters raise major concerns after bombshell Biden family allegations.
• Manhattan DA will charge Marine veteran in subway chokehold death.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• AOC Melts Down Over CNN Hosting Trump Town Hall: “CNN should be ashamed of themselves…The audience is cheering him on and laughing at the host”.
• Concerned Father Who Gave Heartfelt Speech at School Board Meeting Lost Job After Radical Progressive Activists Began Attacking and Harassing Him – Please Help (VIDEO).
• Dr. Peter McCullough: 3 Painful Facts About Spike Protein That The Media Ignores.
• Bud Light Sales Still PLUNGING Across the Entire US – Down 29% in Rocky Mountain States – HSBC Downgrades Anheuser-Busch Stock!
• Highly Maneuverable Chinese Spaceplane Touches Down After 276 Days in Orbit – Craft Docked Several Times With Another Object – May Be Used as Weapon to Target US Satellites.
• Mourning in America: Democrats and Fake News Hacks Suffer Collective Meltdown Following Trump’s Triumphant Return to CNN.
• Former DEA Official Derek Maltz Joins Rose Unplugged: As Title 42 Expires, Expect A Tsunami of Fentanyl Pouring Into Your Community (AUDIO).
• Fact Check CNN: Trump Was Right and Annihilates Kaitlan Collins Over Chinatown Classified Documents.
  

The Epoch Times:

• China, Taliban Deepen Ties as Afghanistan Joins Beijing’s Infrastructure Plan.
• China’s Shrinking Imports, Slower Exports Growth Darken Economic Outlook.
• IN-DEPTH: China Escalates Its Cyberwar Against the West.

Twitter: 

• @DC_Draino - CNN: “Why does Trump keep calling out 2020 election fraud?” Um, maybe it’s because more than 60% of Americans believe it was rigged, including nearly half of *Democrats*. The fringe position now is thinking there *wasn’t* fraud. (poll)
• @SuburbanDrone - Is everybody happy now? (graph)
• @RebsBrannon - This isn’t a border town. This is Chicago where hundreds of migrants are ending up across the country. Here they’re camping at a police station. (video)
• @KimDotcom - Powerful moment: CNN: "Do you want Ukraine to win this war?" Trump: "I don’t think about it in terms of winning and losing, I think in terms of getting it settled so we stop killing all these people." *Massive audience applause* The people want peace. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 957,953 Reports(+2,601 from prior week) Through April 28th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.5 -1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 72.75 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.5 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 53.0 +1.5%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.14 -4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -.12%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +..30%.

• S&P 500 futures +.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and tech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Regional Bank Contagion Concerns, Global Growth Worries, Financial/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 +1.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .79%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.0 -4.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.7 -.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.83 +2.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.7 +2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +25.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -8.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.03 -27.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.5 +.68%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 421.95 +1.87%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 425.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 104.07 +.97% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 394.38 +.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 189.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.3 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 247.84 -.27%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 17.5 basis points +5.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 -2.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 165.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 711.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 -.4%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.15% -7.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.7 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.8 -4.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.1 +.1 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.1 -4.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) -3.9% -.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.83 -.01:  Growth Rate +2.2% unch., P/E 18.2 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% -.1 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 197.63 n/a: Growth Rate +29.99% n/a, P/E 32.2 n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.14 -11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.57 -17.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.14% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 52.2%(-5.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 49.2%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +26 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long