Sunday, August 20, 2023

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
 Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.0 +6.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 83.75 +4.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.4 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +1.2%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 -2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.81%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, August 18, 2023

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,366.6 -2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 34,534.7 -2.3%
  • NASDAQ 13,316.4 -2.6%
  • Russell 2000 1,861.5 -3.3%
  • NYSE FANG+ 7,302.5 -3.2% 
  • Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 34.7 -8.2%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 150.70 -7.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 43,701.5 -2.3%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,694.2 -2.1%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,541.94 -2.6%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 766.49 -2.5%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,218.86 -.18%
  • NYSE Technology 3,557.7 -2.3%
  • Transports 15,710.0 -3.1%
  • Utilities 878.60 -1.8%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 83.60 -2.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 38.5 -2.9%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 194.25 +.72%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 103.3 -.16%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 460,161 -1.6%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 -19.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -551 -452
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -30.6 -4.1%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 255,928 +5.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,703,711 -2.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.18 +13.9%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.13 -16.4%
  • ISE Sentiment 87.0 -20.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.02 +24.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.9 -3.8%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .22 -17.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -.09 -1.0 basis point
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.4 +19.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .83% -.01%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 25.1 +18.7%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.42 +5.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.16 +2.1%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 12,865.7 -4.8%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  59.9 -5.6
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.570 Trillion +.72%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$9.974 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 35.9 -19.7%
  • AAII % Bears 30.1 +18.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 274.39 -1.9%
  • Crude Oil 81.3/bbl. -1.8%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 281.94 -3.6%
  • Natural Gas 2.55 -8.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%
  • Heating Oil 315.81 +1.74% 
  • Newcastle Coal 160.0 (1,000/metric ton) +3.9%
  • Gold 1,889.27 -1.4%
  • Silver 22.75 +.03%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 404.75 -.95%
  • Copper 370.80 -.50%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 366.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.0%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.9 USD/Metric Tonne +4.9%
  • CME Lumber  532.50 +6.7%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,578.42 +.19%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 322.5 USD/Short Ton +1.3%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +5.76% +164.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.12 -12.5%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 89.33 +29.7%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) -7.5% +.8 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.92 +.83:  Growth Rate +7.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.6 -.5
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 233.53 +1.99: Growth Rate +42.3% +1.2 percentage points, P/E 31.4 -1.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.6 +3.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.9 +20.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.3 +1.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 90.5%(+.5 percentage point) chance of no change, 9.5%(-.5 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 9/20
  • US Dollar Index 103.3 +.49%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,664.99 -.75%
  • Bitcoin/USD 25,947.8 -11.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.13 -.52%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -67.5 +6.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.25% +9.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.109 Trillion -.76% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $1.831 Billion -14.1%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.8 +15.9%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 189.6 +6.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 171.0 +8.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.1 +1.2%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 84.69 +35.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 189.9 +10.5%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.8 -.50%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.69 +20.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 -2.35%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 74.01 -4.2%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.6% -.5 percentage point
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +4.9% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.2% unch.: CPI YoY +3.8% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32% -5.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 20.75 -.25 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -1.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.89 +7.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 192.0 +1.24
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 +14.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 88.19 +8.5%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 244.7 -1.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 222.19 +10.1%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 181.0 +7.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 745.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .69 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.6% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,166.3 -.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 234,250 +1.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% +10.0 basis points
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 47.3 -2.7%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.60% +14.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 193,000 -.77%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.5% +70.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -4.0% unch.
  • Box Office Weekly Gross YoY $95.6M -18.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.87/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,247.0 +10.5%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 889.5 +1.7%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.5 -8.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 36.5 -7.3%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 248,086 -.66%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,591,257 +11.6%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -2.1%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -3.6%
Leading Sectors
  • Shipping unch.
  • Pharma -.24%
  • Insurance -.82%
  • Steel -1.0%
  • I-Banking -1.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Airlines -5.5%
  • Gold & Silver -6.3%
  • Regional Banks -6.3%
  • Digital Health -6.9%
  • Alt Energy -7.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)
  • DLB, BILL, BLMN, ROST, LYTS, MRCY and GNRC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)
  • EL, WOLF, BZH, DE, JD, HSAI, BILI, DOLE, VIPS, ATAT, EH and KEYS
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on China Economy Worries, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Technical Selling, Metals & Mining/Medical Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .83%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.1 -2.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.99 -.46%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.16 -.87%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 25.7 -.39% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.15 +1.77%
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 +64.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.99 +1.14%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 340.9 +.13%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 +6.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.6 +2.2% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 262.9 +5.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 171.0 basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.8 +4.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 221.94 +1.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.73 -.62%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 181.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 745.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 69.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.4 +.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.43% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.6 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.9 +2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.3 +1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) -7.5%  +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.92 +.15:  Growth Rate +7.1% unch., P/E 18.6 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 233.53 +.29: Growth Rate +42.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.2 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.09 -6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -67.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.76% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 65.0%(+7.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Dec. 13th meeting: 60.7%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -94 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +46 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (FN)/1.80
  • (NDSN)/2.32
  • (ZM)/1.06
Economic Releases   
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits 

  • (SRE) 2-for-1
  • (CPRT) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PPI report could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +6.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.6 -2.4
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 61.7% of Issues Advancing, 34.5% Declining
  • 8 New 52-Week Highs, 78 New Lows
  • 44.4%(+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 34.0 -4.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.9 -2.5%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,988.5 -.76%
  • 1-Day Vix 13.2 -17.5%
  • Vix 17.8 -.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 -.88%
  • TRIN/Arms .85 +30.8%