Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Quarter-End Positioning, Technical Buying, Energy/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 -.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .62%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.1 +.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.5 -.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.4 +.84%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 25.9 -.08% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 -4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 -12.2%

• NYSE Arms .87 -25.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.70 +.16%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 325.54 +.83%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 323.0 +5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.58 +.54% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 290.3 -1.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.9 +.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.75 +.13%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.02 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 19.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 908.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 79.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.96 -.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 115.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.89%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.4 euros/megawatt-hour +11.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.2 -8.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -48.2 +4.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.6 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +8.4% -1.1 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.68 +.13:  Growth Rate +9.0% unch., P/E 18.0 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.89 +.17: Growth Rate +58.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.9 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .29 +23.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -60.5 basis points (2s/10s) +8.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 61.0%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 57.2%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -200 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +149 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles -1.3% 2) Digital Health -1.2% 3) Airlines -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BTI, VALE, BEKE, VSAT, PTCT, ONON, AA, LBTYA, ZIM, MRUS, HRMY, LI and MORF
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DOMO 2) CART 3) BMBL 4) CAG 5) SYF
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TNDM 2) SCYX 3) BCLI 4) RAD 5) MASI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +1.7% 2) Energy +1.2% 3) Healthcare Providers +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WSM, HNRG, CRGY, OII, HPK and SCHL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WSM 2) UUUU 3) AMT 4) IGT 5) SE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WSM 2) CNK 3) STLD 4) JOBY 5) BIP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CTAS)/3.67
• (UNFI)/-.39
  

After the Close: 

• (AIR)/.70
• (COST)/4.79
• (PRGS)/1.00
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in June.
• The S&P Corelogic CS 20-City MoM SA for July is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.92% gain in June.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Aug. is estimated to fall to 698K versus 714K in July. 
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to 105.3 versus 106.1 in Aug.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Sept. is estimated at -7.0 versus -7.0 in Aug.
• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Sept., Eurozone Money Supply report, 2Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports and the Cantor Fitzgerald Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -21.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.5 -.3
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 47.6% of Issues Advancing, 49.4% Declining
• 24 New 52-Week Highs, 211 New Lows
• 37.6%(-.05%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 33.0 -6.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.9 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,380.2 +.31%
• 1-Day Vix 12.2 -30.4%
  
• Vix 17.6 +2.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 -13.9%
• TRIN/Arms .86 -25.9%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Chinese Gold Buying Is Driving a Paradigm Shift in Bullion.
• Australia Warns of Impact If China Suffers Sharper Slowdown.
• Italy Offers Banks Get-Out Clause to Controversial Windfall Tax.
• Food Inflation Is Still High Around the World.
• Apple to Scale Up India Production Fivefold to $40 Billion.
• Macron Says France to Ask Oil Industry to Sell Fuels at Cost. 
• Asian Equities Range-Bound as Oil Resumes Rally: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Resumes Rally as Hedge Funds Join Increasingly Bullish Bets.
• Stocks Flash Recession Warning as Trouble Spreads to Industrials.
• Bond Market Faces Quandary After Fed Signals It’s Almost Done.
• Fed Officials See More Rate Hikes Possible While Inflation Persists.
• Landlord SBB Gets $720 Million Cash Boost in Brookfield Deal. 
• Private Equity’s Slow Carnage Unleashes a Wave of Zombies.
• Corzine Plans to Shut Hedge Fund and Return Capital to Investors.
• The Fed Is Curbing Inflation, But Consumers Say They’re Still Paying Too Much.
• Data Center Firm AirTrunk Mulls IPO at A$10 Billion Value. 
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge:

• Zelenskyy, Trudeau Honor Actual 3rd Reich Nazi With Standing Ovation.
• "Our System Is Collapsing In Real Time": Tucker Carlson Gives Bombshell Interview.
• "Don't Be Intimidated" By The Censors - Tucker Carlson Urges Americans To Fight Back By 'Telling The Truth'. 
• 25 Years Ago Today, Two Nobel Laureates Received A $3.6 Billion Bailout, Launching Too Big To Fail. 
• Washington Is Fighting Against Emergence Of "Genuine Multipolar World Order": Lavrov Tells UN. 
• Now We Fear The Fed?
• "Biggest Shorting Since March 2020": Goldman's Top Weekly Trader Report Finds Market Sentiment Turns Dire.
• Elon Musk's Starlink Exceeds 2 Million Users, Doubling In Just Nine Months.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "Spam Strike" Looms After Hormel Minnesota Workers Reject Contract Offer.
• Zelenskyy Asks Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic To Be Ambassador For Ukraine, Help 'Rebuild Schools'.
• Kerry Acknowledges Need For Nuclear Power As Climate Diplomacy Dominates New York City.
• Europe dancing on the edge.
• Netanyahu's Hardline Allies Threaten To Implode Israeli Govt Over Concessions To Palestinians.
• 20 Robo-Taxis Cause Traffic Mayhem In Austin.
• Seymour Hersh On The Mainstream's Ukraine Narrative Shift.
• Saudi Arabia Sentences Schoolgirl To 18 Years In Prison Over Tweets.
• 'Bullish' Goldman Flows Guru Warns Of "Elevator-Down Possibility" For Markets In Short-Term.
• Biden To Join UAW Picket Line As Strike Expands, Good Luck Getting Repairs.
• UK Quietly Passes "Online Safety Bill" Into Law.
• From "sad September" to "optimistic October".
• France: Foreigners Commit 69% Of Robberies, Violent Crimes & Sexual Assaults On Public Transport.
• The Censorship Industrial Complex Exposes The Kleptocracy's True Intentions.
• Alzheimer's, Now A Leading Cause Of Death In US, Is Becoming More Prevalent.
• Robots From China Don't Strike.
• Chicago's Trillion-Dollar Financial Engine At Risk Of Leaving Over $800 Million Tax Proposal.
• Liberal, Conservative Dating Apps Explode In Popularity. 
• Defunct 'Disinformation Governance Board' Sought To Censor Opposing Views On Racial Justice, Afghan Withdrawal, & Other Political Subjects.
• A Time Capsule From The 1930s: What's Different Now.
• American Dream Megamall Sees Losses Quadruple To $245 Million.

Wall Street Journal:

• Bidenomics Is Keynesianism Without Constraints. Deficit spending to cure a recession is temporary. Now it’s permanent and justified by ‘emergencies.’
• California Wants to Know Your Emissions. Sacramento moves to enforce CO2 disclosures on companies nationwide if they do business in the state. 
• Lululemon’s Secret Power: Even Mom Can’t Make It Uncool
• Russia Learns From Its Mistakes on Ukraine Battlefield
• Zelensky’s Blunt Talk Wins Support but Also Irks Friends
• U.S. Economy Could Withstand One Shock, but Four at Once?
• The Hedge Fund That Made a Killing Betting Against Lina Khan.
• The Children Win in North Carolina. It’s the tenth state to give school choice to all its citizens.
• Watching the Real-Estate Bust From the Streets of San Francisco.
• The Band of Debunkers Busting Bad Scientists.
• Attention Office Resisters: The Boss Is Counting Badge Swipes.
• The Trial of Crypto Golden Boy Sam Bankman-Fried, Episode 1: The Limit Does Not Exist.
• Twenty-Five Years After LTCM, Emerging Markets Keep Burning Investors.

CNBC:

• Writers strike negotiations reportedly hung up on language over AI.
• This Southern city is the No. 1 place to start your own business, says new data.
• Are you overindulging your kids? Ask yourself these 4 questions.
• Congress remains divided on budget negotiations: “Our financial ship is sinking”.
• Credit card losses are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis.
• Workers with Canadian union Unifor vote in favor of Ford contract.

Reuters:

• China central bank adviser proposes structural reforms to revive economy.
• Ukraine's Zelenskiy says he met top businessmen during U.S. visit.

MarketWatch.com:

• How much are customers treating themselves? Shoes, skiing, wine and fancy groceries are in focus with this week’s earnings.
• Stock investors face a wall of worry into the year-end, creating the need for protection.
• Opinion: Fed’s ‘golden handcuffs’: Homeowners locked into low mortgage rates don’t want to sell.

NewsMax:

• ABC-WashPost Poll: Trump Leads Biden by 10, Pollsters Can't Believe It.
• Taiwan Warns of Chinese Army Buildup in Fujian.

Fox News:

• Bombshell poll may embolden Biden 2024 naysayers and set Trump apart from GOP field.
• Judge delivers scathing rebuke to Biden admin's attempts to restrict oil drilling.
• Canada under fire for giving 'monster' who fought for Nazis during WWII a standing ovation in parliament. 
• Dem mayor sounds alarm as 2,000 migrants flood in per day, pushing his city to the brink.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Pollster Rasmussen Says “Election Fraud Renders Scientific Election Forecasting Worthless” – Will Start Sharing Evidence.
• OUTRAGEOUS: Federally Funded Maine High School Clinic Secretly Gives Girl Baggy Containing Anti-Depressant Drug with Serious Side Effects-Calls Child Protective Services on Her Father for Complaining.
• Biden Regime Spends $800,000 On “Harm Reduction” Program That Distributes Crack Pipes In Texas.
• California Gov. Newsom Signs Law Requiring Foster Parents to Show They Will Support Children’s ‘Sexual Orientation or Gender Identity’.
• Canadian Parliament Receives Zelensky, and Gives Standing Ovation to 98 Year-Old Man Who Fought for Nazi SS Division Involved in War Crimes,
• Fireworks! Matt Gaetz Goes Toe to Toe With Maria Bartiromo Over Speaker McCarthy and GOP Budget Battle (Video),
• OC DA Todd Spitzer Reveals Alarming Reason Why Gascon Declined to Seek Max Punishment For Man Who Executed Sheriff’s Deputy (VIDEO).
• WOW! CBS’s Margaret Brennan Calls Out Hypocrite AOC For Owning a Non-Union-Made Tesla (VIDEO).
• REPORT: Study Finds That Mexican Cartels Rank as Fifth Largest Employer in Mexico – 175,000 People Employed by 150 Groups.
• Radical Leftist Group Takes Credit After Burger King, Asos, and HelloFresh Pull Ads from Rumble Over Russell Brand Videos.
• National Cathedral Installs ‘Racial Justice’ Themed Stained-Glass Windows.
• Elites Enjoy Lavish Dinner at Palace of Versailles While Discussing Climate Change.
• Trump Leads Biden 52 to 42 in New ABC/WaPo Poll.
• Mayo Clinic Website Now Says Hydroxychloroquine CAN Be Used to Treat COVID-19 Patients, Previously Claimed It Was Not Effective.
• Climate Change Hypocrite Al Gore Attacks Fossil Fuel Companies at NY Times Event (VIDEO).
• Victor Reacts: Criminals No Longer Fear the Law! Vegas Teen Brags that He Will Be Out in 30 Days (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• China Benefits Directly From US Energy Policy.
  

Twitter:

• @VigilantFox - The Media LIES By Omission: Ten Stories They Conveniently Left Out This Week. (list)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 983,973 Reports(+1,886 from prior week) Through August 25th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.25 -3.75 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 80.0 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 120.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.1 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.6 +1.4%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +1.0 basis point. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 -.24%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.42%.
• S&P 500 futures +.10%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.