Stocks Close Slightly Higher on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.1 +6.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .36 -20.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.4 +1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 186.4 +.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.8 -.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.5 -3.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 +22.0
  

• Total Put/Call .83 unch.

• NYSE Arms .68 -40.9%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$276.52M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.1 +1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 255.4 +.01%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 288 -14
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.1 -.33%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 164.0 -.71%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.1 -.28%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.6 +.8%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 124.9 +.07%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 727.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 56.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.22%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.5 euros/megawatt-hour -4.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.20 +5.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.7 -4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.8 -6.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(481 of 500 reporting) +7.8% +.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 257.24 +.37:  Growth Rate +12.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.89% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 328.58 -.30: Growth Rate +22.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.40 +34.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .91 -15.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -43.5 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.5% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.1% +.3 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.37% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 88.9%(unch.) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 53.7%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +65 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +37 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my financial/industrial/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -3.4% 2) Biotech -1.8% 3) Airlines -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SRCL, ZS, HOLI, PDD, AY, FLUT, SRPT, DKNG, MRNA, MRUS and CELH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) INSM 2) CNC 3) NTES 4) IGV 5) KGC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DKNG 2) MRNA 3) BLUE 4) VFS 5) CKPT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XBI 3) ARKK 4) XLF 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.4% 2) Semis +1.7% 3) Computer Hardware +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• INSM, ARCT, AGIO, GME, AGEN, CORT, HIMS, OKLO, KRO, MTAL, ARM, DUOL, HUBS, XPEL, NVDA, SA, PAAS, USM, MUX, LEU, PSLV, OPRA, INMD, CSIQ, STEP, AMD, DELL, BE, HTHT, BHVN, GATO, ALKT, NCLH, CRSR, CROX, GDEN, ONON, EC, DECK, FUTU, ENPH, VRNA, APP and IMMR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SPCE 2) XLP 3) NEE 4) DISH 5) AAP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INSM 2) CORT 3) GME 4) HUBS 5) NVDA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLI 3) XLU 4) SOXX 5) XOP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANF)/1.76
• (AAP)/.68
• (AEO)/.28
• (CHWY)/.04
• (DKS)/2.96
  

After the Close: 

• (A)/1.19
• (AI)/-.30
• (HPQ)/.81
• (NTNX)/.17
• (OKTA)/.54
• (CRM)/2.37
• (SSYS)/-.07
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May is estimated to rise to -6 versus -7 in April.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for May is estimated to rise to -9.2 versus -10.6 in April.

2:00 pm EST

• Federal Reserve Beige Book report.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil inventory report, Jefferies Software Summit, Stifel Jaws/Paws Conference, Goldman Sachs Semi Conference, TD Cowen Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, (ZBH) investor day, (META) annual meeting, (NXPI) annual meeting, (PBI) update call, (TOST) investor day, (DG) annual meeting, (WSM) annual meeting and the Keybanc Industrials/Basic Materials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.8 -2.9
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 47.9% of Issues Advancing, 49.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .77 -33.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$82.7M
  
• 109 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 59.6% (+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.5 +1.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 237.1 -.16%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,744.2 +.74%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 54.0 (Neutral) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 6.8 -20.5%
  
• Vix 12.6 +2.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 -6.90%

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Iran’s Near Bomb-Grade Uranium Stock Grows Ahead of Elections. 
• China’s Housing Crash Could Set Back Millions of Promising Careers.
• Xi Tells Politburo China Needs Financial Regulations With Teeth.
• Israel Airstrike and Death of Egyptian Guard Ratchet Up Tensions.
• Japan May Hike Rate to 0.5% by Year-End, Ex-BOJ’s Masai Says.
• Stocks Get Lift From Rate Outlook, Dollar Dips.
• Oil Advances With OPEC+ Meeting and US Fuel Demand in Focus.
• Dollar Bulls Retreat as US Economic Print Cools, CFTC Data Show.
• Private Credit Lures $100 Billion Fund Seeing Sticky Inflation. 
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zero Hedge: 

• Mayor Pete Bombs CBS Interview, Blames Airline Turbulence On Climate Change, As Host Laughs In His Face.
• Trust The "Science"...That Just Retracted 11,000 "Peer Reviewed" Papers.
• Absurd: Radical Leftist Rashida Tlaib Speaks At Conference Connected With Terrorist Group.
• "Global Trade War Looms, But It's Not Just Trade War To Fear".
• Memorial Day News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Friday Airline Travel Sets Record For Passenger Screenings: TSA.
• The Fed Vs. The Treasury: All Roads Lead To Inflation.
• CEO Of Russia's Second-Largest Bank Warns: "US Is Inevitably Headed For A Serious Economic Crisis".
• Saving Our Democracy This Memorial Day.
• "Holy F**K": US Military Hid Quantico Breach Attempt By Jordanians In Box Truck In Possible Dry-Run.
• David Stockman On The Continual Rise In The Cost Of Living... And Why The Fed Has No Shame.
• For Memorial Day, Imagine Speaking To Those We Once Honored, Like These...
• NYC Mayor Adams Working With ICE To Circumvent 'Sanctuary City' Laws.
• Trans Sports Agenda: Drag Queens Carry The Olympic Torch To Launch Summer Games.
• Traders Turn Cautious With Hopeful Momentum Tiring.
• Yields Will Stay Higher For Longer With Commodities.
• 'Mises Caucus Just Exploded': Libertarian Party Nominates Left-Winger Chase Oliver.
• Elon Musk Reportedly Building 'Gigafactory Of Compute' For AI.
• EVs Twice As Likely To Hit Pedestrians As Gasoline Vehicles.
• The Massive Immigration Wave Hits America's Schools And Shelters.
• Visualizing Daily Protein Sources By Region.
• AI Vs America: Deepfakes, Disinformation, Social Engineering, & The 2024 Election.
• Judge Approves Class-Action Lawsuit Against American Airlines Over ESG Pension Investments.
• Biden Marketing Team To Create Trump Mega-Martyr With 'Guilty' Verdict Campaign Strategy.
• Regular Cannabis Users Exceeds Drinkers For First Time Ever .

Wall Street Journal:

• An Oil-Patch Brawl Over a $53 Billion Megadeal Entwines the Legacies of Three CEOs.
• Israel, Egypt Try to Keep Gaza War From Escalating.
• AI Is Driving ‘the Next Industrial Revolution.’ Wall Street Is Cashing In.
• Biden Administration Presses Allies Not to Confront Iran on Nuclear Program. 
• California’s $25-an-Hour Minimum-Wage Boomerang. Gov. Newsom now says the law he signed last October would add to the state’s fiscal woes. He ignored warnings at the time.
• Sneaker Rivals Race to Find the Next Super Foam.
• America Is Getting Ready for Space Warfare.
• Companies Want Fewer Grad Hires This Year.
• The Great AI Challenge: We Test Five Top Bots on Useful, Everyday Skills.

CNBC:  

• Shaking seats, piped-in fog: How 4DX is carving out a niche market.
• ‘Drone wall’ against Russia: Six NATO countries announce border defense plan.
• This new GLP-1 drug ETF bets big on two of the industry’s leading players.
• Gold, silver and copper rally has just taken a breather — new highs not far off.
• Nvidia and more: Citi names global stocks to play the semiconductor boom.

MarketWatch.com:

• ECB ready to start cutting interest rates, chief economist says.
• Musk’s xAI raises $6 billion in fresh funding from Fidelity, Sequoia Capital and others.
• Wall Street economists expect ‘friendly’ U.S. inflation data this Friday. 
• Some buzzy AI names highlight this week’s earnings slate — along with Costco.

NewsMax: 

• Biden Administration Pushing Allies to Back Off Iran on Censure.
• UN Nuke Watchdog: Iran Enriching Uranium Near Weapons-Grade Levels. 
• Grenell: Our Freedoms Are Being Taken Away.

Fox News:

• Biden's unexpected visit to potential witness in Hunter's gun trial raises eyebrows
• Mike Tyson suffers scary medical issue, pleads for help from doctors onboard a flight
• Donalds has special message for MSNBC host that called him MAGA prop 'Black guy'

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Memorial Day 2024 – Today More Than Ever Americans Are Under Threat of Losing Our Freedom.
• “USA! USA! USA!” President Trump Receives Rock Star Welcome at NASCAR’s Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway (VIDEO).
• ENDLESS ESCALATION: UK, Germany and the EU Float Military Conscription – Eleven European Countries Already Have Mandatory Service – Hungary’s Orbán Blasts the Idea.
• Now Even Reporters Laugh at Team Biden’s Climate Change Hoax (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Makes Surprise Late-Night Visit to Hallie Biden – A Witness in Hunter’s Gun Case – 8 Days Before Trial.
• Rep. Mast Writes to VA on Behalf of Veterans Who Say They Are Losing Access to Their Doctors (Video).
• WV Senator Shelley Moore Capito Reveals EPA Gave $50M Grant to Pro-Hamas Climate Group.
• Louisiana House Passes Bill to Allow Law Enforcement to Arrest Illegal Immigrants.
• Joe and Hunter Biden Used Visit to Sandy Hook Memorial Service to Set Up Secret Meeting with Communist Chinese over $10 Million a Year Deal.
• Arizona Uses State Pension Plan to Push Woke Agenda.
• Impact of Bidenomics on Your Memorial Day Weekend: Prices Skyrocket Since 2021.
• Remembering a Death in Battle.
• The Latest Absurdity in Alarmist Agenda: ‘Experts’ Now Blame Air Turbulence on Climate Change.
• Travel Influencer Found Dead While Under Investigation for Child Porn.
• Libertarian Party Chooses Openly Gay Former Democrat Chase Oliver as Its Nominee, Uses Victory Speech to Rail Against ‘Genocide in Gaza’.
• UNBELIEVABLE: Reality Show ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race All Stars’ Features Woman With Chopped Off Boobs Carrying Bloody Breasts on Runway and Promotes Double Mastectomies for Teen/Young Adult Viewers (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Beijing’s Unusual Plan to Stabilize Housing Market Has Risky Consequences.
• Purge of Agriculture Officials Highlights CCP’s Concerns About Food Security: Analyst.
• Bipartisan US Lawmakers Affirm Support for Taiwan After China’s Military Exercises.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Just a reminder that Earth is almost empty of humans, contrary to what many people think.

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• How the World Really Works. Sarah Ransome was a victim of the Jeffrey Epstein & Ghislaine Maxwell Child Trafficking Operation. “I was raped repeatedly & I was not the only girl on that Island”. “I was ten - that’s how long the sex trafficking ring has been happening”. “There was a constant stream of girls being raped over & over again”. “I have spent the last 17 years in my own prison - for what she, Jeffrey & the co-conspirators did to me”. (video)
• “As a Scientist I can tell you….there is NO Global Warming, there was NO Pandemic, Nitrogen is not a problem, Cow farts are not a problem”. “You can double the amount of Co2 & it will NOT have an effect on the Earths mean surface temperature, period” Real Scientist stating real facts - you don’t hear this on Legacy Media as it goes against their Paymasters Globalist Pseudoscience sponsored Agenda. Do you understand how it all works yet? (video)

• @thethealthb0t
  

• As Bill Gates buys up vast swathes of U.S. farmland, American farmer John Boyd implores everybody to start growing their own food, or buying locally from independent farmers, to ensure that their food is safe to eat. (video)

• @wideawake_media

• Who/what is to blame for this? (map)
• CNBC report from 2019: "Bill Gates is backing the first high-altitude experiment of one radical climate change solution—creating a massive chemical cloud that could cool the Earth. It's called solar geo-engineering." "But it also comes with significant risks and uncertainties: Things like mass famine, mass flooding, drought." "It could eradicate blue sky... You have less direct light, which is the same thing as saying it looks hazy and white." (video)
• Bill Gates―who believes the planet is overpopulated―funds the world's largest mosquito factory, which breeds 30 million bacteria-infused mosquitos per week, then unleashes them on the unsuspecting public, "to save and improve millions of lives". Why would a man who believes the planet is overpopulated care so much about "saving millions of lives"? (video)
• "We are going to be in an open prison... for the rest of our lives." Shyam Batra, recent Mayor of London candidate, on 15 minute cities: "You won't be able to drive a petrol or diesel car anymore... If you want food, you will get a calorie controlled system sent to you by text, saying this is what you can eat today... If you violate any of these things, they will freeze your bank account." (video)

• @OliLondonTV
  

• Shameful Princeton students rush to stop a MEMORIAL DAY parade after spotting American flags coming towards them. Hundreds of activists charged onto the road and sat down while shouting “Free Palestine” at the parade marchers who were honoring fallen service members & veterans. (video)

• @DarioCpx 

• So after Asia and Europe dealt with Bird Flu (that ultimately was innocuous to humans) several times in the recent past without any issues, now that the very same happens in the US suddenly people needs a vaccine? Dear $MRNA and $PFE, with all due respect, go to hell…

• @PIQSuite

• US, EUROPEAN NATIONS CONSIDER VACCINATING WORKERS EXPOSED TO BIRD FLU.

• @newstart_2024

• Eva Vlaardingerbroek: "So obviously there's an agenda against meat in general. It's cattle farm that they're trying to come after and there is a global agenda pushing for us to eat insects but also eating fake meat produced by people like Bill Gates for example. There are some ties also with Bill Gates and the Dutch government that are I think very interesting to mention. If you decide what people eat and if there are food shortages for example what could happen is that they introduce some sort of food stamp system...That would obviously be a digital one...It would be personally related to your ID, so it would all tie together with the digital identity that they are setting up right now. (video)
• Naomi Wolf: Our existential enemy who is working with globalists, who is working with Bill Gates, who wants us dead...China: they want our food supply, they want our natural resources, they want our farmland, they want our water resources, they want our energy grid, they don't want our population..." (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Native New Yorkers Aren’t Holding Back. Ex Barack Obama Voter Tells The Media They Will Not Tolerate Another Stolen Election. One of the most epic interviews ever. (video)
• Reviewing The 2020 Donald Trump vs Joe Biden Election Data. “This looks like it occurred maybe 4:30 in the morning”. 138,000 votes. “They all came in at once. But the thing that's the irony of it, every last one of them broke for Biden. There was not a Trump vote in there”. “This makes no sense. This is not even statistically possible — you have a skyrocket.” (video)

• @WallStreetSilv

• The US govt just pulled a major data scam with the housing data to "revise" away 25% of the housing inflation from the past 4 years. This is an example of why CPI data is completely fake and should be entirely ridiculed whenever they release it. (graph)
  

• @DrJudyAMikovits
  

• How do you tell a cow has bird flu? Clay Clark: What's your reaction to the bird flu propaganda scare being pushed in Michigan right now? Dr Judy Mikovits: Okay! What's the test? Do the cows have the antibody to bird flu? Because every single injection a cow was given in a vaccine injected Avian Bird flu. So you're testing positive for what you injected in your shots.

• @DC_Draino

• Texans have the chance to remove RINO Dade Phelan from office on Tuesday. If he loses his runoff race, it’ll be the first time Texas’s speaker has been dethroned since 1972. His challenger, David Covey, an oil-and-gas consultant, has been endorsed by Donald Trump. Dade Phelan tried to take out America’s best AG
  @KenPaxtonTX, but now Dade is the one on the chopping block Make us proud, Texas! (video)

• @FFT1776
  

• “Mexico is now deporting Americans back to the US”. Undocumented Americans moving to Mexico for a lower cost of living is causing inflation in Mexico. You can’t make this shit up!! (video)
  

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,010,545 Reports(+992 from prior report) Through April 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.0 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 60.5 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 119.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.4 +4.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.4 -.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.1%.
• S&P 500 futures +.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.