Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +1.1% 2) Steel +1.1% 3) Computer Services +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SLN, PZZA, PBR, CNTA, TARS, YMAB, QXO, PBR/A, RDFN, HRTG, BILL, TME, CLF, LBPH, GTLS, ACLX, ALAB, BEP, CAVA, BGNE and VIST
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PDD 2) TOST 3) CAN 4) IEP 5) DISH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ML 2) MIRA 3) BGNE 4) PWM 5) CAVA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) XLI 4) KRE 5) XRT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMWD)/2.37
• (HAIN)/.08
• (SCSC)/.93
  

After the Close: 

• (AMBA)/-.19
• (BOX)/.40
• (JWN)/.71
• (PVH)/2.29
• (SMTC)/.09
• (S)/.00
• (CTLT)/.47
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in May.
• The House Price Purchase Index QoQ for 2Q
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.34% gain in May. 
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to 100.9 versus 100.3 in July.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The M2 Money Supply report for July, API weekly crude oil stock report, Texas Service Sector Outlook for Aug., 2Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, Deutsche Bank Tech Conference and the Jefferies Semis/IT Hardware/Comm Tech Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -23.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.2 -4.2
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 62.9% of Issues Advancing, 34.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.02 +36.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$171.4M
  
• 331 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 62.5% (+1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.0 +4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.2 +2.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 225.2 -.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,603.2 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 55.0 (NEUTRAL) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.9 -8.7%
  
• Vix 16.2 +2.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 -10.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Mideast on Edge After Israel Bombs Lebanon to Thwart Attack. 
• China Economists See Weak Demand Despite Expected Interest Rate Cuts.
• PBOC Starts Bank Stress Tests to Avoid Stampede Out of Bonds.
• Asian Stocks Rise as Investors Count Down to Cuts.
• Oil Rises as Israeli Strikes on Lebanon Ratchet Tensions Higher.
• Junk Bond Maturity Wall Erodes as Money Managers Seek Yield.
• Powell’s Pivot Leaves Traders Debating Size, Path of Rate Cuts.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.
• University Rules on Campus Protests Are Clear as Mud. 
  
• Democrats Are Big on Love, Short on Details.
• Apple Explores Robotics in Search of Life Beyond the iPhone.

Zero Hedge: 

• "Musk Should Be Nervous" - Deep State Lackey Admits Real Target Following Telegram Founder's Arrest.
• How Democrats Make Republicans: RFK Should Be A Wake Up Call For The Party.
• "Fading The Rally": Hedge Funds Sell Stocks At Fastest Pace Since March 2022.
• Pennsylvania Judge Rules Cornel West Can't Appear On Ballot In Key Swing State.
• Morgan Stanley: Forget The Convention, Here's What Investors Can Hang Their Hat On Into The Nov 5 Election.
• Pope Francis Condemns Ukraine's Ban On Country's Largest Orthodox Church.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Netanyahu Vows More 'Surprising Blows' After Preemptive Hezbollah Attack: "Not The End".
• Rare Mosquito-Borne Disease Triggers Voluntary Curfew In Massachusetts Towns.
• The Social Recession Is Accelerating.
• U Of Tampa RA Training Includes Scenario Of Student Feeling "Threatened" By Conservative Roommate With MAGA Flag.
• Dems Scramble To Walk Back Harris' Price Control Scheme.
• Heads I'm Smart, Tails I'm Stupid.
• Visualizing How The G20 Generates Electricity.
• Why State Enforcement Of "Fairness" Is Wrong.
• Death Of Woke: Queer Activist Video Game Funded By The EU Can't Find Players.
• Britain, Which Birthed American Ideas About Liberty, Has Embraced Despotism.
• Rutgers Prof Who Said She Hoped Trump Shooting Would "Inspire Others" Will Teach This Fall.
• Fascism 2.0, Part 2: Globalism & The Subjects Of Interest.
• Giga-Vaxxed Fauci Somehow Contracts Ultra-Rare West Nile Virus On Heels Of COVID-19 Infection.
• Billionaire Telegram CEO Pavel Durov Arrested In France.
• RFK Jr. & Trump Will End War On Small Farms To Save Nation's Food Supply Chain.

Wall Street Journal:

• Kamala Harris’s ‘Joyful’ War on Entrepreneurs. When Democrats talk about boosting the middle class, what they mean is government employees.
• Harris and Schumer Target the Supreme Court. Democrats make clear that if they win, they’ll push measures to destroy the judiciary’s independence. 
• Israel, Hezbollah Signal De-Escalation After Predawn Bombardments.
• The Plug-In Hybrid Car Starts to Win Over Buyers.
• Elon Musk’s Hard Turn to Politics, in 300,000 of His Own Words.
• Inflation Usually Hits Harder for Poor Families. For a Couple of Years, It Didn’t.
• Lululemon ‘Dupes’ Are Just as Cool With the TikTok Crowd.
• A Court-Ordered Therapy That Separates Kids From a Parent They Love Stirs a Backlash.

CNBC:  

• Restaurants fight back against the FTC crackdown on ‘junk fees’ as diners balk at new charges.
• Markets are now wondering whether the Fed might cut by half a point in September.
• China slams U.S. for adding firms to export control list, vows action.
• Hezbollah launches missile barrage at Israel to avenge top commander.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Powell says time has come for rate cuts. Here’s the opportunity for investors.
• Earnings Watch: More retailers, CrowdStrike, Nvidia — and the ‘most important tech earnings in years?’.
• Unemployment is the Fed’s biggest enemy now, Powell says. Not inflation.

NewsMax:

• Rasmussen Poll: Independents Help Trump Lead Harris.
• Blaine Holt: Trump's Life 'Still in Danger as We Speak'.

Fox News:

• Army vet who testified in Trump impeachment warns Musk after Telegram CEO's arrest.
• RFK Jr gives new details on what led to his decision to drop out, endorse Trump.
• The next COVID? Infectious disease experts address pandemic potential of virus.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WATCH: J.D. Vance Smacks Down Kristen Welker on Meet The Press as She Tries to Run Cover for Kamala Harris with Biased Questions.
• UPDATE: RFK Jr. Announces He Will Be Actively Campaigning for Trump — Teases Trump’s Upcoming Announcements of Democrats Joining MAGA Movement.
• President Trump Unleashes On Kamala’s Attempts to Tie Failures of Biden-Harris Adminstration to Him: ‘Trying to Make it Sound Like I am the Incumbent President’.
• “Who Is Negotiating the Middle East? – Sleepy Joe is Sleeping – Comrade Kamala Is Doing a Campaign Bus Tour with Tampon Tim” – EPIC! Trump Tweets Out Question of the Day on X.
• Clueless Jon Karl Gets Completely Humiliated by Tom Cotton After Denying Kamala Harris is a Radical Leftist and Claiming She Opposes Abolishing Private Health Care (VIDEO).
• Democrat Strategist Argues on CNN Burning the American Flag is “Patriotic” (VIDEO).
• Democrat Rep. Dean Phillips Suggests He Is Open to Serve in a Republican Administration: ‘We Failed a Lot of People’.
• Elon Musk Reacts to Arrest of Telegram CEO in France, Slams Zuckerberg for ‘Caving to Censorship Pressure’.
• Kamala’s Legacy: Three Years After the Botched Biden-Harris Afghanistan Withdrawal, Taliban Announces New ‘Vice and Virtue’ Laws Banning Women’s Voices and Bare Faces in Public.
• Powerful: Black Chicagoans Eviscerate Democrats for Putting Illegals Before Citizens: ‘It’s All by Design. It’s Deliberate.’ (Video).
• Star Wars Fans Blame “Toxic, Misogynistic, Immature Racists” For Cancellation of Woke Series.
• Renowned JFK Expert Reveals Why He Suspects the CIA Was Involved in the JFK Assassination as Trump Vows to Release All the Files on the Incident.
• Mainstream Media Fact-Checkers Rip Kamala Harris’ DNC Speech to Shreds.
• Rasmussen Reports Finds that 3% of 2020 Voters were Non-Citizens Who Plan to Vote Again in 2024 (Video).

The Epoch Times:

• As Foreign Direct Investment Plunges in China, Chinese Companies Go Abroad.
• CCP Signals It Won’t Stop Aiding Russian War Effort After US Issues Sweeping Sanctions.
• Why the Chinese Aren’t Buying the CCP’s ‘China Dream’ Campaign.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Wow. (pic)
• How is this even real?

• @GenFlynn
  

• Absolutely stop whatever you’re doing and watch this 7 min video now. This is what must happen to begin the healing of America during this period of our history. AND,
  @RobertKennedyJr ‘s statement toward the end about crafting an Executive Order for handling government officials who knowingly lie to the public must still happen. (video)

• @amuse

• EVEN MORE STOLEN VALOR? Tim Walz claimed on is Congressional bio that he was part of a Harvard teaching program in China. It was instead an NGO run by former Harvard students that may have been funded by the CCP. Is everything about Tim Walz life a lie?

• @ShadowofEzra

• Former State Department official Mike Benz claims the U.S. State Department was involved in Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s arrest in France, urging Congress to subpoena all related communications. Benz suggests the State Department orchestrated Durov's arrest to gain leverage, forcing him to let them monitor Telegram. He warns WhatsApp is already compromised, and what you say there doesn’t stay there. (video)

• @CortesSteve

• Wow. Gavin Newsom mocks the Democrats’ coronation of Kamala Harris: Host: “How are you feeling about the switch?” Newsom: “We went through a very open process, a very inclusive process. It was bottom-up, I don’t know if you know that. That’s what I’ve been told to say.” (video)

• @Liz_Churchill10

• “President Trump was considering a commission to look into the ill-effects of vaccines by someone named Robert Kennedy Jr. who was advising him. I said that’s a dead end…don’t do that…” -Bill Gates on RFK jr. (video)

• @_johnnymaga

• Trump brought a woman to the border whose skull was cracked by an illegal alien in San Francisco. The illegal was released from prison by District Attorney Kamala Harris. This is incredibly powerful. (video)

• @goddeketal

• The EU is turning into a full-blown digital dictatorship. Anyone who dares speak freely is silenced. This is the beginning of the end unless we stand up NOW. (pic)

• @Maga4liberty

• WOMAN ON FIRE. This smart black woman describes how the government encourages black women to abort their children, yet also encourages immigrants to bring their babies across the border & showers them with money! (video)

• @nicksortor

• NEW: RFK Jr. just told Fox News that he will be “actively campaigning” with President Trump, and that other democrats will be coming forward to endorse him. This is HUGE! MAGA is unifying America! (video)

• @VivekGRamaswamy
  

• Kamala Harris favors a tax on unrealized capital gains. That means many farmers and small business owners will owe taxes without having the cash to pay for them, triggering forced sales of assets. There's no better way to trigger a second Great Depression. (video)

• @MichelleRM68
  

• 1) On the day of Trump’s shooting, there was a white van found that belonged to ANTIFA member Maxwell Yearick & tied to a company called Yearick Armory! This company manufactures explosives & has a history of selling goods to guerilla groups in South America WITH THE HELP OF THE CIA! Maxwell has gone "MISSING" & his family has even filed a missing person's report in AZ! (video)
• JUST IN: Lara Trump stated that of the 700 trained Republican poll watchers who applied in Detroit, only 50 were accepted!! Guess how many Democrats were accepted? Over 2300!! Thank GOD the @RNC filed a lawsuit to STOP THIS from happening AGAIN! (video)
• It's been 4 months since Milwaukee Elections Director Claire Woodall was fired for creating 64K ballots for Biden in the back conference room of City Hall! Not only was she NOT arrested, none of the others who helped her were either! It'll happen again! (video)
• Speaking of Arizona! “I read her a Trump ballot & it DEFAULTED on the Dominion screen to Biden. The supervisor told me I could not discuss anything that was going on & many others were threatened." Dominion voting machines are still NOT BANNED!!!

• @mitchellvii

• This is a video of Democrat after Democrat including Kamala saying voting machines can't be trusted. Then after 2020 they said we were criminals for questioning voting machines. (video)

• @WallStreetSilv

• Over 170 million children are forced into child labor worldwide, even in the United States. Hollywood doesn’t want to touch the topic, but from the producers of Sound of Freedom comes the thriller City of Dreams about the child-selling sweatshops of Los Angeles. It’s out in theaters August 30, will be steaming on Hulu! (video)

• @MarioNawful  

• 60% OF U.S BABY FOODS FAIL NUTRITIONAL STANDARDS. A new study published in Nutrients reveals that nearly 60% of baby foods sold in the U.S. fail to meet World Health Organization nutritional standards. Researchers analyzed 651 products and found that 70% lacked adequate protein, 44% had excessive sugar, and 20% exceeded sodium limits. Processed convenience foods, such as snack pouches and bars, were particularly concerning.

• @RWMaloneMD

• Another tactic of the #PsyWar with the COVIDcrisis was paying influencers to promote the jab. Paying for fake support is now a normalized part of the propaganda strategies. (video)

• @KimDotcom
  

• Breaking: The crackdown against free speech escalates. Telegram founder Pavel Durov has been arrested in France. Western intelligence services want access to Telegram’s private messages. According to French media Durov may face 20 years in jail if he doesn’t cooperate.

• @TheRabbitHole84

• Young men are leaving the Democratic Party: - 2016: 51% of young men identified or leaned Democrat - 2023: This number dropped to 39%. (graph)

• @elicalebon

• Today, the Taliban passed a law that bans women from showing their faces and having their voices heard in public. Their burqas must now entirely cover their faces and they are not permitted to speak in public or to look at any males that are not relatives. Perhaps it’s been an emotional year, or maybe it’s because I’m triggered, but I once again cried when I heard the news. I’m still trying to piece myself together. Not even animals are treated with such cruelty, such dehumanization, such indignity, and such little value for human life. This is the entire erasure of the existence of women, and it cuts me to the core to know what Afghanistan and Iran were before this cancerous plague was brought to us. Where are the protests? Where is the outrage? Where is the ICJ? The ICC? Amnesty? Why doesn’t anybody care about the effective enslavement of millions of women under the jihadist system of gender apartheid?

• @toobaffled

• We all know where Bill Gates stands with his Mosquitoes. Suddenly there is an outbreak of Eastern Equine Encephalitis transferred by Mosquitoes in Massachusetts - Go figure. (video)

• @drawandstrike
  

• @MariaBartiromo: "Do you believe that the Communist Party has been grooming Tim Walz?" @peterschweizer: "I think there's no question about it. It goes back to the exchange program that he ran, and brought hundreds of students from the United States to China... There's an account from one student... that he brought back lots of copies of Mao's 'Little Red Book.'" (video)
  

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,013,375 Reports(+481 from prior report) Through August 2nd, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.0 -1.75 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 57.25 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.9%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.6 +3.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.9 -.5%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.3%.
• S&P 500 futures +.01%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Dovish Fed Commentary, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Consumer Discretionary/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 +5.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .58 +79.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 50.9 -2.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.4 +.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.8 +6.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 157.0 -4.0
  

• Total Put/Call .83 +1.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.18 -23.9%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$255.8M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.02 -.52%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 303.4 +.36%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 269 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.03 -.86%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.5 +.24%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.3 +3.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.4 -.2%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 138.5 -1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.04 -.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -16.25 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 696.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 67.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.15% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -41.2 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -59.9 +.4

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.1 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(472 of 500 reporting) +9.4% +1.0 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 264.26 +.12:  Growth Rate +15.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.2 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.65% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 343.83 +.29: Growth Rate +28.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.1 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 -15.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .76 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve -15.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +1.99% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 69.2% +1.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.64% unch.: CPI YoY +2.59% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 45.7%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 43.7%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -91 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +75 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/utility/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAP)/.93
• (BIDU)/18.57
• (BJ)/1.01
• (CSIQ)/.21
• (NTES)/11.97
• (PTON)/-.17
• (TD)/1.51
• (WB)/.42
• (WSM)/1.61
  

After the Close: 

• (BILL)/.46
• (CAVA)/.13
• (INTU)/.85
• (ROST)/1.50
• (WDAY)/1.65
• (DLTR)/1.06
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July is estimated to fall to .03 versus .05 in June.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 232K versus 227K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1870K versus 1864K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Aug. is estimated to fall to 49.5 versus 49.6 in July.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for Aug. is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 55.0 in July.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for Aug. is estimated to fall to 53.2 versus 54.3 in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for July is estimated to rise to 3.93M versus 3.89M in June.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Aug. is estimated to rise to -9 versus -13 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Jackson Hole symposium, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report and the (ELF) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST