Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Aug. is estimated to fall to $12.0B versus $25.45B in July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Musalem speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Conference Board Employment Trends Index for Sept., Global Gaming Expo and the Embedded World Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.3 -2.0
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 59.9% of Issues Advancing, 38.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .82 -2.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$218.6M
  
• 142 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 58.9% (+2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +9.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.2 +8.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 230.5 +1.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,727.7 +.18%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (GREED) +6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.9 -27.5%
  
• Vix 19.1 -6.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +9.3%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.5 +2.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.5 +4.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.8 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.

• S&P 500 futures +.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Close on Escalating Mid-East Regional War Fears, Port Strike/Supply Chain Disruption Concerns, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Biotech/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.14%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.58% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.9 euros/megawatt-hour +3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.4 +3.6 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.1 +9.2 basis points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +18.4% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.92 +.73:  Growth Rate +14.3% unch., P/E 21.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.66% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.22 +.20: Growth Rate +28.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.1 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .75 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 13.75 basis point (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.54% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 59.1 -2.7 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 45.0%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.8%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +115 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +923 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +119 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APOG)/1.23

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Sept. is estimated to rise to 150K versus 142K in Aug.
• The Unemployment Rate for Sept. is estimated at 4.2% versus 4.2% in Aug.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the (CALM) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 +1.6
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 28.1% of Issues Advancing, 69.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .83 +6.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$220.5M
  
• 87 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 57.6% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 -10.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.2 -2.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 227.5 -.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,690.5 +.46%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) -3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.5 +1.6%
  
• Vix 20.2 +7.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .74 -25.3%