Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 -3.1
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 68.3% of Issues Advancing, 29.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.86 -30.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$255.8M
  
• 73 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 59.5% (+3.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.0 -3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.0 +1.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.5 +.04%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,188.6 -.19%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) +4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.5 -37.4%
  
• Vix 19.4 -4.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 +9.0%

Monday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.75 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 62.7 +.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 -4.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%.

• S&P 500 futures +.54%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.66%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AON)/2.48
• (AN)/4.36
• (B)/.39
• (BAH)/1.47
• (CRI)/1.40
• (CL)/.89
• (GNTX)/.47
• (HCA)/4.96
• (NYCB)/-.41
• (NWL)/.16
• (PIPR)/2.67
• (SAIA)/3.53
• (SNY)/.22
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.0% versus unch. in Aug.
• Durables Ex Transports for Sept. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.5% gain in Aug.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Collins speaking, IMF meetings, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, Bloomberg Oct. US Economic Survey, US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• This is insane. (graph)
  
• If they are able to do this, there will be no swing states next election. (video)
• Those against voter ID in America are the ones who want to commit election fraud. (video)

• @JackUnheard

• BREAKING: Glenn Beck claims that by using a fake news Atlantic article and comparing Trump to Hitler, Kamala Harris has effectively given the GO for an assassination attempt on President Trump, and warns he might not “make it to January 20th.” (video)
  

• @greg_price11
  

• Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson: - Refuses to remove 1.2M ineligible voters from the rolls. - Won’t finish counting less than 8M ballots on Election Day - Denied RFK’s request to take him off the ballot but sued to keep Cornel West off. - Says she will “come for you” if you question if Michigan’s election was fair. (pic)

• @DonaldJTrumpJr

• How can they get away with this? This should be criminal! They’re trying to pump half a trillion dollars of random money into the economy two weeks before an election to create an illusion of a comeback… something other than the abject disaster that they created? Insanity! (graph)

• @DC_Draino

• SCOOP: The McDonald’s where Trump served french fries in PA has now hired armed guards to protect employees who are being threatened by angry Democrats. These people are the true threats to democracy.
• You’re telling me the CDC announced an E.Coli outbreak at McDonald’s just hours after Trump served fries there and it’s not a political hit job? This is how Communists work. They punish dissidents. (pic)
• Corrupt Georgia SoS Brad Raffensberger is now raising $$ to fight county election boards that refuse to certify fraud. Instead of raising money to fight election fraud He’s raising money to protect fraud. (pic)

• @LauraLoomer

• WATCH: DEMOCRATS CHEATING IN MONTANA TO STOP @SheehyforMT FROM DEFEATING @jontester. This footage is from Glacier County Montana on October 20th, 2024. The footage shows a staffer from the @dscc Senate Democrats named Laszlo Gendler who was observed attempting to rip the drop box off of the column it is attached to. (video)

• @_johnnymaga

• HOLY SMOKES. A Michigan autoworker laid off, alongside 1,100 others by the parent company of Chrysler blames Kamala & Biden’s EV mandate for his termination. He’s now voting for Trump. “I took it from my mom, auntie, cousins… they came at me.” (video)

• @TrumpWarRoom
  

• BREAKING: Kamala repeatedly denies she was engaged in a massive coverup around Biden's cognitive decline — insisting she was honest with Americans, even as it was obvious to anyone with a brain that Biden was losing it. (video)

• @hodgetwins

• Why is this judge against verifying the vote count? There’s only one reason.

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: The left-wing newspaper "Los Angeles Times" has decided NOT TO ENDORSE Kamala Harris for president. The Times has endorsed *every* Democratic presidential candidate since 2008. (pic)

• @Ultrafrog17

• Obama yesterday: "I don't understand how we got so toxic, so divided, so bitter." Kamala Harris 24 hours later: "Trump is literally Hitler and he will use the military to kill US citizens." (video)

• @CollinRugg
  

• BREAKING: Donald Trump will appear on Joe Rogan's show which is set to be filmed in Austin, Texas on Friday according to Politico. Rogan has over 14 million followers on Spotify with the number-one show in the world. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra
  

• There it is folks… Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina just confirmed that Certain Areas won’t be Rebuilt and they’re Buying Out Entire Communities Affected by “Climate Change”. “We’ve spent a lot of time on the way we approach rebuilding… in some areas, you just SHOULDN’T Build Back. And we’ve been able to convince certain communities and people that BUYOTS are better… • he also says, “we know these events will become more and more intense”. How the hell do they know, unless THEY are causing these hurricanes? The land grab is REAL. This is what they mean when they say Build Back Better. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Robert Kennedy Jr just CONFIRMED what I’ve been making posts warning people about. Kamala Harris’ Department of Defense just legalized their ability to murder American citizens on American soil right before the presidential election. Democrats are becoming EXTREMELY dangerous. (pic)
• This is getting insane. Asheville, North Carolina resident just got a letter notifying her that her mortgage loan has been sold to Vanguard owned company. Amazing timing… Are we really still pretending Hurricane Helene isn’t being used as a land grab? Some people in the comments of this post say they got the same letter who live in the area. Absolutely insane. (video)
• It’s Still Happening. This video was posted less than 24 hours ago. North Carolina resident “We're in Lake Lure again — FEMA is here. — They have just gone in and confiscated the store — They are making the people Leave. Leave, get their stuff as quickly as they can, or they will take it from them.” “This just happened to the group at Lake Lure. FEMA just shut them down. Yes we were in the parking lot. It happened so fast that no one realized what was happening”. (video)

• @TaraBull808

• Maricopa County is now saying it'll take 10 to 13 days to get election results. Why are all these swing states coming with the same narrative? (video)

• @Jamierodr14

• INFURIATING! Never Forget that 20 homeless decorated combat veterans were thrown out of this NY hotel to make room for 60 single illegal alien men! This is the Biden/Kamala’s America. (video)

• @MikeBenzCyber

• This is why the DOJ is requesting an "indefinite delay" in the trial of Trump Assassin #2, Ryan Routh: (video)
• We put hackers who are all on the same team politically in charge of securing electronic voting machines from being hacked to favor one team politically. It’s a recipe for disaster. (video)

• @_ROB_29

• Crowd at Kamala’s event in Detroit started chanting Trumps name and she lost it! Kamala: "If you want Donald Trump to win, say that, otherwise I’m speaking!" CROWD: YEAH!! TRUMP!! (video)

• @matt_vanswol

• This is the real truth about #FEMA, from people on the ground in Asheville. I know this will upset a lot of people, but if you aren’t actually here, you do NOT understand how bad it really is. Remember, this could be you one day. (video)

• @kylenabecker
  

• JUST IN: The Ohio Attorney General has announced six indictments for illegal voting in U.S. elections. We were told this never happens. Those who voted illegally are alleged to be as follows: (pic)
• Oh by the way, Fulton County ex-prosecutor and Fani Willis lover Nathan Wade confirmed White House collusion to bring charges against Donald Trump. Fani Willis announced her intentions to bring charges against Trump before she even became the Fulton County District Attorney. She also had decided that the former president was guilty before he was even indicted. Massive election interference. You know, no big deal. (video)

• @niksortor

• #BREAKING: Bill Gates has put up $50 MILLION backing Kamala Harris, according to NYT. This comes just days after @elonmusk told Tucker Carlson that some billionaires are “TERRIFIED” by Trump’s promise to release the Epstein client list. Bill Gates famously flew with Epstein and visited his island countless times, and when asked by PBS if there’s a lesson for Gates or anyone else regarding Epstein, Gates said: “Well, he’s dead… so… you have to be careful!” (video)

• @EverythingHomeT

• MARICOPA COUNTY IS USING AN ILLEGAL AUDIT FORM TO DOCUMENT CHAIN OF CUSTODY FOR 2024 ELECTION DAY BALLOTS & CHECKED-IN VOTERS. NOT COUNTING BALLOTS...ONLY PAGES. (pic)

• @EricSpracklen

• You don’t think voter fraud is real? Think again. Share this everywhere. (video)

• @GardensR4Health

• I am totally invested in tracking the West Virginia Strip Miners now….. Seeing how bad NC is, last night these boys had a D6 dozer brought in….they aren’t here to play. Now these badasses are going to re-connect the road from Chimney Rock to Bat Cave. (video)
• The reports are in, ONLY 1% of homes lost in NC quality for insurance. Exactly what are all these people supposed to do? America is funding half the world’s wars and poverty, yet we can’t take care of our own? (video)

• @GOPoversight

• BREAKING- 'Full-Blown Scandal': Biden-Harris Admin Hid Documents To Justify Fossil Fuel Crackdown, Oversight Committee Says.

• @VoterGA

• “WHY would anyone want to conduct a cybersecurity "exercise" on Election Day?” The Homeland Security community of vendors, contractors and government agencies is coming for a large critical infrastructure conference that includes a "tabletop" cybersecurity threat exercise on Election Day in Atlanta, the capitol of one of the most hotly contested battleground states in America. It is reminiscent of the NORAD federal agency conducting aero defense exercises while we were attacked on 9/11. The exercise sponsored by the Armed Forces Communications & Electronics Association International (AFCEA), begs for specific answers to a variety of serious questions:

• @GenFlynn
  

• We cannot have this level of fraud in our elections. @elonmusk needs to keep pushing this single (vital) issue that our elections must be fair and transparent. It is the one right we have that is suppose to make us all equal. (video)

• @_johnnymaga
  

• Gold MSNBC segment on Philly voters: "At the end of the day, I don't think Kamala has what it takes to go up against Putin — and go up against these other presidents that are built for this... I want my president to feel secure, and manly, and ABOUT IT." (video)
• Mark Cuban just got grilled on CNBC for opposing all of Kamala Harris's central promises. Capital gains tax: "I would campaign against her." Eliminating the filibuster: "I'm against that." Joe Kernen: "What DO you like?" (video)

• @KellyLMcCarty
  

• “Y’all have got to know what is going on. We’re not ok…” The people of North Carolina need your help now. Don’t let the MSM paint a picture of recovery. Not even close to that yet… we’re still trying to help people survive… (video)

• @TonySeruga

• Judges Reject RNC Lawsuits in Michigan and North Carolina on UOCAVA Ballots Allowing Overseas Voters to Cast Ballots in Michigan Despite Never Living There.

• @robbystarbuck

• Wow. The US government funded a $9.7 Million dollar study where they gave puberty blockers to kids in an effort to prove that it was healthy for kids to be transitioned. The study proved that it WASN’T good for the kids though. Now they refuse to release the study because the lead doctor is afraid that it will be used to ban sex changes for kids.

• @GuntherEagleman

• BREAKING: Conspiracy theorists were right AGAIN! This should be seen by EVERYONE! Get this viral! (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.5 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.3 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 62.6 +1.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.22%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.35%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Close on Higher Long-Term Rates, US Election Integrity Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.3 -.3%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.64% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.40 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.5 +.3 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.1 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(121 of 500 reporting) +2.1% -3.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.13 +.35:  Growth Rate +14.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.65% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 369.78 +.18: Growth Rate +29.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 15.75 basis point (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.43% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 46.9 +.1 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.57% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 66.4%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.0%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -174 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +77 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AB)/.72
• (AAL)/.16
• (BYON)/-.77
• (BC)/1.20
• (CRS)/1.59
• (CARR)/.81
• (CBRE)/1.06
• (DOW)/.46
• (FCN)/2.06
• (HOG)/.81
• (HAS)/1.29
• (HON)/2.51
• (KDP)/.51
• (LH)/3.48
• (LEA)/2.54
• (NOC)/6.08
• (RS)/3.66
• (R)/3.41
• (SAH)/1.43
• (LUV)/.06
• (TSCO)/2.24
• (UNP)/2.78
• (UPS)/1.63
• (VLO)/.98
• (VC)/1.83
  

After the Close: 

• (APPF)/1.03
• (SAM)/5.00
• (BYD)/1.40
• (COF)/3.77
• (CSL)/5.82
• (FIX)/3.97
• (DECK)/1.23
• (DLR)/1.67
• (EW)/.66
• (LHX)/3.25
• (MHK)/2.89
• (OLN)/.04
• (TXRH)/1.32
• (WDC)/1.71
• (WY)/.00
• (HTZ)/-.43
• (ARCH)/1.83
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to .5 versus .12 in Aug.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 242K versus 241K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1875K versus 1867K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Oct. is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 47.3 in Sept.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for Oct. is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 55.2 in Sept.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for Oct. is estimated to fall to 53.8 versus 54.0 in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• Net Home Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 720K versus 715K in Aug.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to -7 versus -8 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The IMF meetings, Fed's weekly balance sheet reports, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (BYON) investor meeting  could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST